NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Fv3 for the win. Nice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 00z FV3 is a hit. It digs the wave, then separates it from the northern stream before rounding the base of the trough and going negative tilt through the Carolinas. It manages to be just cold enough on the NW side in spite of disconnecting from the northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 And then the pattern, such as it is, breaks down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Thats a foot plus over alot of NC. Id cash out and the pattern can do what it wants rest of way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 The Canadian, with light snow and temps at or below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Thats a foot plus over alot of NC. Id cash out and the pattern can do what it wants rest of way Snow on the 00z FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, JoshM said: The Canadian, with light snow and temps at or below zero. That would be fun.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 LR GFS looks a lot better. It's not great by any stretch, but it shows more of a pattern re-load than a breakdown, and keeps general troughiness over eastern NA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 UKMet not digging the wave as much this run. It has a weak clipper type low moving into W TN at hr144. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 These setups are our bread and butter here in the upstate.. GEFS snow mean through next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 0z GEFS much wetter for next weekend compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 0z GEFS much wetter for next weekend compared to 18z Yep sure is.... Much improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco Lemonade Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Boom!! I say let it rot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 ICON & FV3-GFS For Next Weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 36 minutes ago, griteater said: Snow on the 00z FV3 Some people have mentioned the Jan 2000 "Carolina Crusher" over the past few days while watching the evolution of this potential system. While it's way too premature to lock on to a storm like that, this particular output map looks a whole lot like that event. Not necessarily for totals, but eerily similar in terms of placement for haves and have nots. Check out that western cutoff; Jan 2000 yielded a trace or flurries to NW SC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Man this is tough to get a handle on right now. GEFS looks good for N GA, but almost all the OP’s leave us dry. ICON would be snow here and in WNC if it could just get the moisture back up this way. At this range I want to lean on the ensembles, but seeing even the good OP runs consistently be late bloomers is disconcerting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Just now, SnowDawg said: Man this is tough to get a handle on right now. GEFS looks good for N GA, but almost all the OP’s leave us dry. ICON would be snow here and in WNC if it could just get the moisture back up this way. At this range I want to lean on the ensembles, but seeing even the good OP runs consistently be late bloomers is disconcerting. Stand your ground.... This is far from being written in stone. right now it's where you want it to be. Trust the ensembles more at this range. The op runs will be all over the place until 48 hours out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 The CMC thinking that precip is rain over AL and GA made me laugh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 FV3 gives me 6.1 on the Kuchera (over 7" on the 10:1 maps)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Just remember... NW trend is the foothills friend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Sweet Jesus. Euro has a 993mb bomb in the northeast GOM at 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 It’s another vigorous run of the Euro with the wave diving into the northern gulf. Looks like snows from Atlanta to Charlotte and north/northwest some. It looks a lot like the FV3 run but a bit west (warmer in E NC) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Will take that Euro run... MBY, literally down to my town, is jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Verbatim, that is a strange snow map with half a foot in Mobile, AL and nothing in Atlanta. Imagine there will be a few big hits on the EPS when it rolls out here shortly... Still think the ensembles are the best thing to look at this far away. The trend towards a stronger wave seems to be clear right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Nice bump on snow totals on the EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 6z GFS is suppressed, nothing to see here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 8 minutes ago, JoshM said: 6z GFS is suppressed, nothing to see here. It tries on Tuesday, delayed, but not denied! Stupid GFSv3 and Euro getting everyone hot and bothered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCGamecock Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 It tries on Tuesday, delayed, but not denied! Stupid GFSv3 and Euro getting everyone hot and bothered Could you just as easily say the very inconsistent Gfs is the stupid one? FV3 and Euro haven’t changed H5 every run like GFS and have shown a storm for much of the board the past 2 days. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 16 minutes ago, UpstateSCGamecock said: Could you just as easily say the very inconsistent Gfs is the stupid one? FV3 and Euro haven’t changed H5 every run like GFS and have shown a storm for much of the board the past 2 days. . GFSv3 6z was a whiff for everybody! Some rain in E NC/SC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 7 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Some people have mentioned the Jan 2000 "Carolina Crusher" over the past few days while watching the evolution of this potential system. While it's way too premature to lock on to a storm like that, this particular output map looks a whole lot like that event. Not necessarily for totals, but eerily similar in terms of placement for haves and have nots. Check out that western cutoff; Jan 2000 yielded a trace or flurries to NW SC. As I am not native to Upstate SC, can someone please describe the 2000 Carolina Crusher scenario? Did the Greenville, SC area receive any significant snowfall? I could find online articles mentioning North Carolina totals only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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