SnowDawg Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 I’m perfectly fine with the amount of cold we’re getting. Extreme cold would only lead to extreme suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A slow moving frontal boundary will push through region Wednesday into Thursday with periods of rain. Another Arctic high pressure system dives into the Central U.S. Friday into next weekend with an associated deep upper trough over the Eastern U.S. Much below normal temperatures are forecast and will need to watch for disturbances rotating around the base of the trough which could bring light wintry precipitation to central South Carolina and east central Georgia. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 UKMet on left / Euro on right at hr144 (at end of UKMet run). Largely similar for a day 6 map. Euro is a little more relaxed with the height field along the east coast, allowing the wave to get to neutral and spin up a good storm after this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCGamecock Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Since the Midlands discussion was posted, I thought I’d share GSP. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...As of 227 PM EST Sunday: The rest of the fcst just looks like goodold-fashioned winter across the western Carolinas...as a broadlong-wave upper trof grips the eastern half of North America. Itseems likely that we will have to deal with at least some wintryprecip next weekend, given the fairly good confidence that tempswill remain below normal for the period. The main question willbe...one system or two? Or, perhaps, more succinctly, will wesee any effect from a clipper-type low passing by to the northThursday night and Friday morning? The GFS says yes...there willbe enough low level moisture far enough south to wring out snowshowers near the TN border thru most of Friday...but the newECMWF says no...the moisture will stay well to the north. Havesplit the difference, which keeps the precip chances down in theslight chance range for the time being. The bigger issue will bethe second system diving down into the upper trof Saturday andlingering into Sunday. Model guidance has been all over the placewith little run-to-run consistency. Will it be another fast-movingclipper like the GFS indicates, or will the short wave dive farthersouth, close off a small upper low, induce cyclogenesis along thesoutheast coast, and precipitate a potential winter storm for partsof the Carolinas next Sunday? The forecast remains conservativeat this time, with nearly climo 30/20 precip prob and a mountainsnow/Piedmont rain arrangement. Perhaps this is something of acop-out, but we need better run-to-run consistency before we getcarried away. Stay tuned.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, UpstateSCGamecock said: Since the Midlands discussion was posted, I thought I’d share GSP. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 227 PM EST Sunday: The rest of the fcst just looks like good old-fashioned winter across the western Carolinas...as a broad long-wave upper trof grips the eastern half of North America. It seems likely that we will have to deal with at least some wintry precip next weekend, given the fairly good confidence that temps will remain below normal for the period. The main question will be...one system or two? Or, perhaps, more succinctly, will we see any effect from a clipper-type low passing by to the north Thursday night and Friday morning? The GFS says yes...there will be enough low level moisture far enough south to wring out snow showers near the TN border thru most of Friday...but the new ECMWF says no...the moisture will stay well to the north. Have split the difference, which keeps the precip chances down in the slight chance range for the time being. The bigger issue will be the second system diving down into the upper trof Saturday and lingering into Sunday. Model guidance has been all over the place with little run-to-run consistency. Will it be another fast-moving clipper like the GFS indicates, or will the short wave dive farther south, close off a small upper low, induce cyclogenesis along the southeast coast, and precipitate a potential winter storm for parts of the Carolinas next Sunday? The forecast remains conservative at this time, with nearly climo 30/20 precip prob and a mountain snow/Piedmont rain arrangement. Perhaps this is something of a cop-out, but we need better run-to-run consistency before we get carried away. Stay tuned. . That is extremely bullish... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCGamecock Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 That is extremely bullish...I actually felt your areas discussion sounded more bullish than Upstate’s discussion. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, UpstateSCGamecock said: I actually felt your areas discussion sounded more bullish than Upstate’s discussion. . Because of the track of the low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Gefs snow map is a beaut. Eps is way up since last night as well. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCGamecock Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Because of the track of the low?“Light wintry precipitation across the midlands” vs “rain in the piedmont”. Lots of time for GSP to watch models. Just feels good having a potential board wide storm to track. Upstate counties south of 85 have basically faired the same way of Columbia, lately. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, NCSNOW said: Gefs snow map is a beaut. Eps is way up since last night as well. Image? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, NCSNOW said: Gefs snow map is a beaut. Eps is way up since last night as well. What does the EPS look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Image? Phone/hassel. Posted gefs post storm above a few post back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Im surprised NWS for Atlanta mentioned wintry precip next weekend for "much of the forecast area". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Shout out to E6 of the EURO that puts a trace of snow in Tampa Bay of all places... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 This would infer to me that there is little to no ensemble support. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 51 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: This would infer to me that there is little to no ensemble support. Still a clear signal for coastal transfer but wouldn’t look like what the operational was showing. It’s pretty clear where this thing wants to deepen right now? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Lots of big time totals starting to show up on GEFS members in N GA, others are generally light with no in between. For now at least, looks like the timing of getting neutral/negative is driving the forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 All good things...the chances of a wintery wonderland are increasing for a lot of us. Another board member around me was mentioning next weekend looks like a promising deal for north GA. Could be the same for NC. Guess we will see! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: All good things...the chances of a wintery wonderland are increasing for a lot of us. Another board member around me was mentioning next weekend looks like a promising deal for north GA. Could be the same for NC. Guess we will see! Remember what I said this morning... I'm waiting on all the 18z models However, the clear skies tonight are perfect to view the eclipse! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 35 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Remember what I said this morning... I'm waiting on all the 18z models However, the clear skies tonight are perfect to view the eclipse! You don't have to worry about starting a thread based on the 18z GFS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 minute ago, Waiting on snow said: You don't have to worry about starting a thread based on the 18z GFS. Congrats, Bermuda? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gearhead302 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Surprise! The rich get richer...... but sure, go ahead and start that storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 18z much closer than 6z or 12z. Height of the western ridge will be key on getting the wave to dive quickly and be able to get neutral in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowDawg said: 18z much closer than 6z or 12z. Height of the western ridge will be key on getting the wave to dive quickly and be able to get neutral in time. Yeah but we still missed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: Yeah but we still missed So? Its one run of an OP 7 days out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, SnowDawg said: So? Its one run of an OP 7 days out. More the lack of run to run continuity with the ops and ensemble support 7 days out, while in no way unusual lets still be real, it's a unicorn at this very early stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 12 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: 18z much closer than 6z or 12z. Height of the western ridge will be key on getting the wave to dive quickly and be able to get neutral in time. Agree it was a better run on the GFS. 18z FV3 looks pretty good at h5 with the wave, but it struggles to throw precip inland. It was a good run for RDU area, though sfc temps may be sketchy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 8 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: More the lack of run to run continuity with the ops and ensemble support 7 days out, while in no way unusual lets still be real, it's a unicorn at this very early stage. No one should expect run to run continuity 7 days out on a storm that is going to be this close. Very small differences in the ridge/trough are resulting in the big differences seen at the surface, from run to run at this range that will change wildly. I have 11 out of 20 GEFS members over 4 inches and all showing 1 inch or more for my area. I couldn't ask for more support at a 7 day lead time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 14 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: No one should expect run to run continuity 7 days out on a storm that is going to be this close. Very small differences in the ridge/trough are resulting in the big differences seen at the surface, from run to run at this range that will change wildly. I have 11 out of 20 GEFS members over 4 inches and all showing 1 inch or more for my area. I couldn't ask for more support at a 7 day lead time. where do you see the GEFS ensembles ? is it behind a paywall ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, shahroz98 said: where do you see the GEFS ensembles ? is it behind a paywall ? Yeah. I use weathermodels.com 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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