JoshM Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: Cant beleive we get this result. It looks like garbage h5 before hand on gfs. There's so much energy around, it can't handle it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 The overall setup is pretty good for a northern stream system. We get an arctic front to plow thru on Friday, then before there is time for a warm-up, the next wave dives into the trough fairly sharply. A good version of this type of setup would be the storm from just a year ago in mid-Jan...i.e. a Saskatchewan Screamer that manages to be sharp enough where it actually draws up some warm advection and forcing for ascent to generate precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 What a difference hr138 to 154 with pac ridge. I gave up on it to early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 I figured these 0z runs would wake this place up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Cant beleive we get this result. It looks like garbage h5 before hand on gfs. It had an h5 improvement though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Yep, GFS trying to lay down snow across south in the 1/27-28 timeframe. Next weekend+Monday has possibilities for sure across several models now. Specifics TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 9 minutes ago, JoshM said: 0z trying to go Boom, but not there, yet! Not gonna cry not gonna cry not gonna cry.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, griteater said: It had an h5 improvement though Oh yea big time. It was so flat looking i figured no way the ns would be able to scream straight down, looked like lower end of a bowling ball across conus. Oh well, glad i was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: Not gonna cry not gonna cry not gonna cry.... I wouldn't worry about the moisture. Every storm we have had this season has over-performed. This one will be no exception. It may be east of us or west of us, but it will not be dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Check out the block on goofy. Keeps on building and best of all stays cold. Put the seed and pre-emergent away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Canadian has the moisture. We get ice on that run and west 77 hammered. No doubt mid to late next weekend is the opportunity to score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gearhead302 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 12 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Not gonna cry not gonna cry not gonna cry.... Yeah you will, when it's 200 miles north next run. Or maybe even all rain.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 FV3 doesn't develop the low and precip very much this run (low is farther east), but it has light snows in E NC. h5 wave looked similar to 18z overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Canadian has the moisture. We get ice on that run and west 77 hammered. No doubt mid to late next weekend is the opportunity to score. Hey buddy, go look at the 0z ICON... Only goes out to hr180 for end of run, but go forward in time after that and it will be a deep burier for my half of the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 12 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: I wouldn't worry about the moisture. Every storm we have had this season has over-performed. This one will be no exception. It may be east of us or west of us, but it will not be dry. Yeah, that's what you see with the various ensemble members....some west and well developed...some east and well developed.....some east and weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, griteater said: FV3 doesn't develop the low and precip very much this run (low is farther east), but it has light snows in E NC. h5 wave looked similar to 18z overall. ??? It is only out to hr78... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: ??? It is only out to hr78... It's out on the NOAA eval site - https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, griteater said: It's out on the NOAA eval site - https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=model So we gained the OP but lost the FV3? NOT a trade off I like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, griteater said: It's out on the NOAA eval site - https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=model Is that the FV3?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: So we gained the OP but lost the FV3? NOT a trade off I like... Just wobbles on a day 8 system so it’s too far out to have more than a casual interest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 To tired to wait for gefs. Only out to 72 pivotal. Time to start counting up and keeping score on eps and gefs for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Is that the FV3?? Yes, the NOAA site gets it out quickly. It says "GFS", but it's the "eval" site, as in, evaluating the new version of the model (the FV3 version) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Just wobbles on a day 8 system so it’s too far out to have more than a casual interest Actually I just looked at the 180-206 ptype map on that site.... Looks nice and blue for my area (unless I need to go by the boundary layer contor, in that case im screwed by warm nose) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Ensembles, ensembles, ensembles! I don’t care what any run of an OP does right now. Seeing support gathering around a specific date on many ensemble members is what I want to start seeing right now. Hoping 0z will keep up what 18z started on the GEFS. Closest station to me at 12z vs. 18z. A lot more members started showing the goods around the 27th/28th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowDawg said: Ensembles, ensembles, ensembles! I don’t care what any run of an OP does right now. Seeing support gathering around a specific date on many ensemble members is what I want to start seeing right now. Hoping 0z will keep up what 18z started on the GEFS. Closest station to me at 12z vs. 18z. A lot more members started showing the goods around the 27th/28th The 00z GEFS Mean is improved. Here are the last 6 runs for next Monday...last image is the most recent run at 00z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 20 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Too tired to wait for gefs. Only out to 72 pivotal. Time to start counting up and keeping score on eps and gefs for next weekend. GEFS gives support, with a second thumper on 1-31/2-1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Yep. Ensemble means are definitely on the rise for several runs in a row now. Over 6 inches now in N GA mountains. So I think we’ve officially got something to track, that actually has ensemble support now. Obviously a week out everything under the sun can go wrong, but this is the first real threat of the pattern flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCGamecock Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 0z EURO looked better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: 0z EURO looked better More precip this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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