BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Already has been a pretty good winter here and it’s mid Jan. 15+ inches of snow and 3 ice storms. More than MA or NE for that matter. Idk, lots of places in the northeast are way over 15” and there is a huge storm brewing right now about to drop 1 to 2 more feet in many places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Even saying the models warmed significantly is a bit facetious. They went back to the solution they’ve been showing for quite a while now, after yesterday’s bonkers midday runs and whatever the hell the GFS was trying to do last night. Hanging your entire outlook on individual OP runs is ridiculous normally, and even more so at a time as chaotic as this. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, LithiaWx said: Idk, lots of places in the northeast are way over 15” and there is a huge storm brewing right now about to drop 1 to 2 more feet in many places. *at this current moment lol. NYC not that much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmet2009 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Agreed. I don’t get the panic over a model run. One second it’s “too high” and the next it’s “too low”. I do enjoy this board immensely and it’s shch a great resource! Long time lurker.... I’m excited about the pattern and the long term indicies look fantastic! It really seems this will be a period where the op runs won’t pick up a storm signal until 5-6 days out. I think we will have a great run into early March! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, LithiaWx said: Idk, lots of places in the northeast are way over 15” and there is a huge storm brewing right now about to drop 1 to 2 more feet in many places. Not NYC or BOS or DC, so that’s a big win in my eyes! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 That perma-negative NAO has been 10 days out for awhile and guess what? It's still 10 days out. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Honest to God, I feel like we have been looking at these great indices forecasts for like 3 weeks Atleast and no benefits have came from them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said: @Bob Chill, paging Bob Chill, you have been invited to play a round of golf in February down in the Triad. Please delete your aforementioned historic cold posts, grab those clubs and head on down. I hear there may also be some great mullet fishing as well. Lol!! Here's the eps d10-15 h5 and 850 means. I don't like fishing or golf when it's cold so maybe in March or we can meet in Phoenix in Feb? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 27 minutes ago, wncsnow said: As I have said before, it does not look promising at all for a SE winter storm with the upcoming pattern. It will either be clipper city or a conus wide trough and cutters. Historic winter! Its already been a historic winter for our as area, even if it doesn't snow another inch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, UNCCmet2009 said: Agreed. I don’t get the panic over a model run. One second it’s “too high” and the next it’s “too low”. Southeast winter climatology doesn’t really warrant the hang wringing we see in here, but it’s part of the deal with watching model runs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmet2009 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, griteater said: Southeast winter climatology doesn’t really warrant the hang wringing we see in here, but it’s part of the deal with watching model runs Yeah totally get that. I am guilty of it at times as well! Looking forward to the 12z suite today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 @mackeral_sky Breakout the pre-emergent. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 42 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I have to buy one of those crystal balls you guys seemingly own. The crystal ball is climatology. Odds are it's not going to snow here regardless of the pattern. I guess chances increase over the shut out pattern we were in. But are still slim and its always a fly in the ointment. You just have to find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 16 minutes ago, tramadoc said: @mackeral_sky Breakout the pre-emergent. . I already sowed based on the reliable info in here based on model to model runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 28 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Its already been a historic winter for our as area, even if it doesn't snow another inch... Not even close to historic. Half the board hasn't seen a flake. And temps have been above average the entire time so far. Dec was +1-3 depending on location and Jan is +5 so far, although that looks to surely plummet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 10 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: Not even close to historic. Half the board hasn't seen a flake. And temps have been above average the entire time so far. Dec was +1-3 depending on location and Jan is +5 so far, although that looks to surely plummet. JB promised me a -5 winter as a whole!? That’s going swimmingly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: JB promised me a -5 winter as a whole!? That’s going swimmingly The inverse JB model has near perfect verification scores. Backtested for decades. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billypg70 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Waiting on snow said: Not even close to historic. Half the board hasn't seen a flake. And temps have been above average the entire time so far. Dec was +1-3 depending on location and Jan is +5 so far, although that looks to surely plummet. I get that some on this board has had a rough time since 14, While I haven't had the epic year Big Frosty has had, It's been pretty good for me here in Northern Greenville county. I had 6 inches of Snow in December and ice last Saturday. I believe that most on this board will see at least 1 more moderate winter storm before seasons end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Ukie has that piece of energy(1009 low)in Alberta at day 6,same thing the GFS and CMC show diving south/southeast to the gulf later on. Bout the only thing to watch at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 22 minutes ago, Billypg70 said: I get that some on this board has had a rough time since 14, While I haven't had the epic year Big Frosty has had, It's been pretty good for me here in Northern Greenville county. I had 6 inches of Snow and ice last Saturday. I believe that most on this board will see at least 1 more moderate winter storm before seasons end. I wouldnt be cashing any checks quite yet. If we end up with a quick flip to arctic circle-like conditions for a couple weeks (supression city storm track) it could flip right back to warm and wet just as fast. We could be sitting here shivering under crystal blue skies on Feb 1st looking at indices calling for an early March warmup. Timing of systems during those transitions are likely our best bet. I mean really, how often to we get sustained blocking anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 25 minutes ago, Billypg70 said: I get that some on this board has had a rough time since 14, While I haven't had the epic year Big Frosty has had, It's been pretty good for me here in Northern Greenville county. I had 6 inches of Snow and ice last Saturday. I believe that most on this board will see at least 1 more moderate winter storm before seasons end. You had 6" of snow last Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: Ukie has that piece of energy(1009 low)in Alberta at day 6,same thing the GFS and CMC show diving south/southeast to the gulf later on. Bout the only thing to watch at the moment. If it just had something to dive into/hit along gom, wed be in big time business. Old front, any stj energy etc 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: If it just had something to dive into/hit along gom, wed be in big time business. Old front, any stj energy etc It doesn’t matter if it goes thermonuclear in the gulf, temps are in the 50s in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Not sure if it's been mentioned but The long range aside, i think there could be a decent insitu wedge and a chance of some very light freezing rain in north ga/western carolinas tuesday night/early wed.. Yes the high moves into a bad spot but we will have the airmass left over from this upcoming cold shot and it will be pretty cold/dry initially. The old gfs is way too warm and would mean zero chance. However the icon, canadian, and euro all hint or show outright the possibility of some light freezing precip. Despite the bad high placement and no additional caa, winds will be easterly in the low levels and should lock in the cold pool...assuming there is enough precip to cool it down. Once again it might depend on how warm things get tuesday. Gfs says not a chance in hell so won't even bother while the other models show 35 to 41 in general but cooling back down to low to mid 30s by evening in ga and upper 20s/low 30s in the carolinas with dewpoints rising from single digits/low teens tue to teens/20s by evening. The euro keeps being the most aggressive with precip tuesday night showing light freezing rain in far ne ga/upstate by 9pm. Overall it's only a small chance and even if it happens it won't amount to a whole lot since precip amounts look very light (less than a tenth) and temps quickly warm up but figured i'd mention it anyway. Don't be surprised if we get stuck in the mid to upper 30s all day since in setups like this, the cold pools are really hard to dislodge/warm up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 34 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: It doesn’t matter if it goes thermonuclear in the gulf, temps are in the 50s in NC What? Where is all this cold? That's the time frame it was suppose to be the coldest I thought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: It doesn’t matter if it goes thermonuclear in the gulf, temps are in the 50s in NC Haven't you heard? The gov't shutdown is affecting the American models? Oh wait...nevermind that is the CMC. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 You had 6" of snow last Saturday?I believe they were saying they got 6 back in December and had the ice last weekend.Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billypg70 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said: I believe they were saying they got 6 back in December and had the ice last weekend. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Exactly I edited that post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Not NYC or BOS or DC, so that’s a big win in my eyes! AMEN Brudda! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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