Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: I'm saving this post Bob. Won't hold it against you when I am sowing grass and playing golf in late Feb. Hope you are right! Snow is always subject to luck and chaos so you never know until you are shoveling. However, I'm very confident on an extended period of BN temps. It's going to feel like winter and it's not going to hit and run either. If anything changes I'll come back and delete all my posts here. lol 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12z GFS and 12z EURO look very identical at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 This is normally a good look... but where is the cold 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: This is normally a good look... but where is the cold That does not look good...if you want cold temps, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 GL says hello. No HP in the ne. Should look different tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 13 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: This is normally a good look... but where is the cold It’s at hour 240 on the Euro, always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonCLT Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, mackerel_sky said: It’s at hour 240 on the Euro, always That’s next week and not 240 hours away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 That’s next week and not 240 hours awayWhat he meant was the cold was 240 hours away. It’s always 10 days away. LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Day 7 onward is downright epic on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, tramadoc said: What he meant was the cold was 240 hours away. It’s always 10 days away. LOL Today's Euro has one of the bigger arctic blasts you'll ever see at day 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 euro is super cold, good lord. fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, griteater said: Today's Euro has one of the bigger arctic blasts you'll ever see at day 10 Coldest I’ve ever seen. It’s not even close. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 That would be the biggest Birmingham snowstorm since 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: Coldest I’ve ever seen. It’s not even close. That would translate to some chilly surface temps. I doubt the magnitude of that kind of cold around here. But still, having an expansive arctic air mass in the vicinity, with a nice snow pack to the north, will definitely widen the window for some wintry weather around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Cold Rain said: That would translate to some chilly surface temps. I doubt the magnitude of that kind of cold around here. But still, having an expansive arctic air mass in the vicinity, with a nice snow pack to the north, will definitely widen the window for some wintry weather around these parts. Yeah, that’s a big factor in my mind. Gonna be a lot of snow laid in the next week so there won’t be moderation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: That would translate to some chilly surface temps. I doubt the magnitude of that kind of cold around here. But still, having an expansive arctic air mass in the vicinity, with a nice snow pack to the north, will definitely widen the window for some wintry weather around these parts. Thanks for your post. I didn't read the 850 mb temp portion originally on QC's map, and was like... . Mind you, it's still crazy cold to have 850s that cold, but still not the same as reading -30 as my surface temp. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Coldest I’ve ever seen. It’s not even close. If there was moisture coming, I think we’d do ok with those 850s! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: That would translate to some chilly surface temps. I doubt the magnitude of that kind of cold around here. But still, having an expansive arctic air mass in the vicinity, with a nice snow pack to the north, will definitely widen the window for some wintry weather around these parts. The window is shut 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Oh the ratios. With minus 20 to minus 30 850s. What i want to see the most. A pure snow storm with atleast 20 to 1 ratios. Just once pure fluff. Been so long and rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Hi. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 31 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: If there was moisture coming, I think we’d do ok with those 850s! I doubt it, then everyone would say its to cold to snow, it's a very fine line, its warm we get rain or its to cold and the storm gets shoved to Mexico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Seeking out a winter storm prior to next weekend is a bit cart before the horse IMO (and as others have mentioned). Here is the GFS Ensemble Mean for days 0-10. As long as it continues to hold, the kickoff to a colder regime begins with this ridge building up along the western North America coast. That ridge goes up at day 5 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Now here is a trend loop of the last 16 runs over the past 4 days of the GFS Ensemble Mean for Jan 28 (at day 10). The axis of the western ridging has trended east with it initially more thru Alaska, but now it's closer to the W Canada coast. This is a good position in between pure Alaska ridging (-EPO) which can sometimes be too far west (sometimes the U.S. trough can be too far west), and pure Western Canada ridging (+PNA) which can sometimes be too far east (cold, but sometimes on the dry side). Also, the polar blocking on the trend loop has waxed and waned, but the latest few images show a bit more Greenland blocking (-NAO). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 All time low at MIA is 31. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 What it tells me is that lobe on Monday is very transient. We could hit 60 mid-late next week before the cold crush comes in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 All NAO blocks aren't created equal. This is what a good one looks like on what I believe must be from the Euro Seasonal for February (image courtesy of @bennollweather). All long range caveats apply, as we won't be able to kick the can much longer. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 NOAA temperature outlook for days 8-14 (Jan 25-31) "FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5, DUE TO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 500-HPA HEIGHT, TEMPERATURE, AND PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Brad P says next weekend is something to keep an eye on. That's good enough for me coming from him. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 hours ago, BornAgain13 said: This is normally a good look... but where is the cold Back too Mullet fishing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 GFS is almost as cold as Euro! Sucks to have two big models be wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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