mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Did other models show it? Asking because. I’m in Boone visiting family and haven’t been able to check model runs to well on my phone. Not the Euro. Not sure about the other ones! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 46 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Not the Euro. Not sure about the other ones! Euro isnt far off though. H5 trend will be interesting today at lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 24th looked better at 6z... Which my luck so far, should I start the thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: 24th looked better at 6z... Which my luck so far, should I start the thread? No real support from the fv3 or euro though so count me as skeptical based off the 6z gfs being the only one with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, shaggy said: No real support from the fv3 or euro though so count me as skeptical based off the 6z gfs being the only one with it. However the GEFS does give it support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The only time anyone believes the GFS is when it shows fantasy snow. Any other time, people would be calling people crazy for even giving it consideration. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 38 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: However the GEFS does give it support Still would like to see the euro and fv3 to improve at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Here's how this evoloution come to be on the 6z gfs. It started showing yesterday at H5. This southern energy gets left behind, separated from northern Stream at hour 120 you see this clearly on the 6z gfs. At 12z last night this trend had started , but not quite this much and the cold front didn't have a chance to get pushed through fast enough. Thus the surface low that spawns and rides up the front covered everything in VA in snow down to the state line. This morning Same thing happens, only we get just a little bit more separation as energy pinches off and the front is able to press down through NC enough before our surface low that spins up gets ejected deeper out of GOM and rides up the front. 6z gfs 120: AT 156: This is when its snowing good in NC, surface reflection is out in front. Notice NS coming down back side. I want open what goodies that could lead to. So the trend we are watching happens around hour 100-120 today on models. Need the energy to seperate on southern end and drop down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Heres the FV3 at hour 120: Notice you dont get the separation like the GFS. This is not what we need. Energy gets strung out or consolidated. want work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 hours ago, NCSNOW said: Your spot on about today, even the mtns played catchup after the radar in TN lit up early this morning. This is a prime example, just like the crusher sneaking up on everyone, models have a hard time with spacing and timing Northern stream energy, espeacilly 3 + days out. Once the pattern becomes steady, like block getting situated,then theyll have higher skill most likely. You get a ns dominant pattern like well have more so post jan 25 and mix in active stj, it just scrambles everything more than it already is, making it tougher to calculate and draw the right conclusion. So buyer be ware. I can vouch. Very heavy radar echos with just enough evap cooling in Johnson City and surrounding areas to turn us to snow and produce the largest snowflakes I have seen since 1998. Some were the size of the bottom of a water bottle. Picked up a quick 1/2-1 inch that was not on the radar of meteorologists. Melted quickly after the precip stopped, but heavy daytime snow is always fun regardless of whether it sticks around or not. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just made a post on my page regarding the Euro Weeklies/Extended forecast for anyone interested. Exciting times coming for cold enthusiasts... 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Big Run incoming for central and southern VA, via 12z GFS for the system next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Yeah watching the 12z GFS roll out and looks like 6z storm moved north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Yeah watching the 12z GFS roll out and looks like 6z storm moved north It did come north, but still in play... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6z was a fluke. Back to reality! Big rainer on tap next Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, BornAgain13 said: It did come north, but still in play... Yes, still 7 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Waiting on snow said: 6z was a fluke. Back to reality! Big rainer on tap next Thursday. You can't say that with any certainty yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Talk about on the line... I'm where the blue dot is. Taken verbatim... difference in a foot of snow is just a few miles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The 0z Euro trended that direction big time last night. I wrote the 24th storm off days ago, so seeing it at least become interesting is surprising to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 UK looks good with a LP in middle Alabama... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 hours ago, tnweathernut said: I can vouch. Very heavy radar echos with just enough evap cooling in Johnson City and surrounding areas to turn us to snow and produce the largest snowflakes I have seen since 1998. Some were the size of the bottom of a water bottle. Picked up a quick 1/2-1 inch that was not on the radar of meteorologists. Melted quickly after the precip stopped, but heavy daytime snow is always fun regardless of whether it sticks around or not. I certainly agree with your description of the snowflakes. Those were huge. The ones in 1998 were longer, we all thought those looked like chicken feathers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 37 minutes ago, CaryWx said: You can't say that with any certainty yet. No, but considering we fail on 9 out of 10 threats it's a safe bet. Plus it's never looked good on other models. Very rarely do they trend south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 13 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: UK looks good with a LP in middle Alabama... For who you? With all due respect what's good for you isn't good for 90% of this board. But I get why you post here. You're between two boards, us and the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Ukie moved north from 0z and is more amped at 999 in S.central Alabama.Heights behind it and northeast of it are a bit lower though. That looks like a good hit for E.Tennessee and Ky if I had to guess,0z Euro had a 996 coming right through CLT at day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 You guys getting extra sleep right now? Everything remains on track for a significant blocking event beginning to take shape in just 6 days. Will take some time to evolve beyond that but no rug pulls showing up at all. Ens look rock solid near the end of the month. Fantasy GFS just spit out a sick full continental block and mid latitude wave train (around the entire globe. lol). 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 55 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Yeah watching the 12z GFS roll out and looks like 6z storm moved north 12z today matches exactly what 0z had last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 18 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: For who you? With all due respect what's good for you isn't good for 90% of this board. But I get why you post here. You're between two boards, us and the Mid Atlantic. Yeah, I am kind of in the middle lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You guys getting extra sleep right now? Everything remains on track for a significant blocking event beginning to take shape in just 6 days. Will take some time to evolve beyond that but no rug pulls showing up at all. Ens look rock solid near the end of the month. Fantasy GFS just spit out a sick full continental block and mid latitude wave train (around the entire globe. lol). Man I hope so! As we turn the corner to Feb we're on the short side of time down here. March can produce big down here but it's rare. Your area has an extra month over us usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 28 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: Man I hope so! As we turn the corner to Feb we're on the short side of time down here. March can produce big down here but it's rare. Your area has an extra month over us usually. GEFS agrees with the general idea that the op was showing in fantasyland. Overall, it's a very encouraging run for the SE and even deep south from D9 through the end of the run. Nothing is moving back in time either. If anything, the block is modeled to build faster than guidance was showing just 2 days ago. You guys are prob going to be pretty busy tracking stuff from mid next week through potentially the end of Feb. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS agrees with the general idea that the op was showing in fantasyland. Overall, it's a very encouraging run for the SE and even deep south from D9 through the end of the run. Nothing is moving back in time either. If anything, the block is modeled to build faster than guidance was showing just 2 days ago. You guys are prob going to be pretty busy tracking stuff from mid next week through potentially the end of Feb. I'm saving this post Bob. Won't hold it against you when I am sowing grass and playing golf in late Feb. Hope you are right! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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