Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 25 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Even Robert was close to punting earlier this month. He is starting to come around now but hasnt been as excited as I would expect in "a blockbuster pattern" If you are talking about Robert at wxsouth he was not close to punting. He had the flu. He even said on the 6th that a lot of people were thinking he was saying winter was cancelled. He said that was not what he was saying at all. He came out twice on the 14 th with Artic blast next weekend. Not this weekend but next week I don’t understand why when models show a snowstorm in 10’days some say it not going to happen or it’s a clown map. However let models show a warm up coming or a hick up in the model run and some of the same believe its ected in stone. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gearhead302 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 More rain.... I've watched this movie before I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 32 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Even Robert was close to punting earlier this month. He is starting to come around now but hasnt been as excited as I would expect in "a blockbuster pattern" I think he’s plenty excited. And the weeklies just came in colder again for weeks 3-4. This pattern is as good as we can hope for. Is it a guarantee at snow? No, welcome to the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 @psuhoffman Starting to see the neg ao/nao coming into focus in under 10 days. This is going to cause a lot of swings as we get closer. It's really hard to get the timing right when a -nao starts building. It can be sudden and that's why long lead verification scores are so low as leads lengthen. If things happen faster than currently expected then confidence and accuracy of d7+ will drop just as quickly. Model volatility will be fun because we're probably going to see a lot of fantasy big storms but there will be no consistency with timing and track. I'm forecasting an onslaught of "models suck" in the near future. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The theme of the weeklies the last 3 weeks: weeks 3 and 4 look amazing! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: @psuhoffman Starting to see the neg ao/nao coming into focus in under 10 days. This is going to cause a lot of swings as we get closer. It's really hard to get the timing right when a -nao starts building. It can be sudden and that's why long lead verification scores are so low as leads lengthen. If things happen faster than currently expected then confidence and accuracy of d7+ will drop just as quickly. Model volatility will be fun because we're probably going to see a lot of fantasy big storms but there will be no consistency with timing and track. I'm forecasting an onslaught of "models suck" in the near future. We had snow in Surry County today. The ground was getting white. It came down fast and furious for a while. I’m just telling you this because no models were showing this. No mention of snow on our forecast until it was getting close. Just sying storms may come with very little warning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 it 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: The theme of the weeklies the last 3 weeks: weeks 3 and 4 look amazing! There again why do we go out 3 and 4 weeks. Summer looks hot in 6 months. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 17 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: The theme of the weeklies the last 3 weeks: weeks 3 and 4 look amazing! Lol, literally every frame of the weeklies past Jan. 24th is below normal. I mentioned weeks 3 and 4 because he was questioning the longevity of the pattern flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 15 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: We had snow in Surry County today. The ground was getting white. It came down fast and furious for a while. I’m just telling you this because no models were showing this. No mention of snow on our forecast until it was getting close. Just sying storms may come with very little warning Your spot on about today, even the mtns played catchup after the radar in TN lit up early this morning. This is a prime example, just like the crusher sneaking up on everyone, models have a hard time with spacing and timing Northern stream energy, espeacilly 3 + days out. Once the pattern becomes steady, like block getting situated,then theyll have higher skill most likely. You get a ns dominant pattern like well have more so post jan 25 and mix in active stj, it just scrambles everything more than it already is, making it tougher to calculate and draw the right conclusion. So buyer be ware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 29 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: The theme of the weeklies the last 3 weeks: weeks 3 and 4 look amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 53 minutes ago, gearhead302 said: More rain.... I've watched this movie before I think Ok, but there's potential SC coastals with this upcoming set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CaryWx said: Ok, but there's potential SC coastals with this upcoming set up. I agree.... I think that is a real possibility. More than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 17 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Ok, but there's potential SC coastals with this upcoming set up. He's not near the coast. He's a prisoner of the 85 down to I20 screwzone and he hasn't picked up more than a dusting in 5 years! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 When we get to March 1st, I hope we come back and re visit these past few pages and couple of weeks of Lucy-Flu we all have been affected by. Well eitheir be saying I told you so or laughing at ourselves for worrying for nothing. If we cant hit one over the fence somewhere in this forum with this look we are evolving into,then we might as well be throwing jax against the wall next November and stepping on wooly worms, while we burn seasonal models and the farmers almanac. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, NCSNOW said: @psuhoffman Starting to see the neg ao/nao coming into focus in under 10 days. This is going to cause a lot of swings as we get closer. It's really hard to get the timing right when a -nao starts building. It can be sudden and that's why long lead verification scores are so low as leads lengthen. If things happen faster than currently expected then confidence and accuracy of d7+ will drop just as quickly. Model volatility will be fun because we're probably going to see a lot of fantasy big storms but there will be no consistency with timing and track. I'm forecasting an onslaught of "models suck" in the near future. NCEP site shows much less support for -NAO/-AO. PNA is near neutral too. MJO went COD and now is back in the unfavorable zones. When is this magical cold pattern going to set up? To me it just looks like cold shots and warmups for the next two weeks. Sure, the CFS shows really cold weeks 2-4, but when do I truly believe the CFS (unless it says warm, then we can trust it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, WidreMann said: NCEP site shows much less support for -NAO/-AO. PNA is near neutral too. MJO went COD and now is back in the unfavorable zones. When is this magical cold pattern going to set up? To me it just looks like cold shots and warmups for the next two weeks. Sure, the CFS shows really cold weeks 2-4, but when do I truly believe the CFS (unless it says warm, then we can trust it). The magical cold pattern is setting up exactly when we've been tracking it to for more than the last week and it hasn't moved once. It was always going to be first shot on the 20th, brief moderation, then established pattern after the 24th. Neither major ensembles support cold shots with warmups past that point, at least to the end of their runs. I don't get all the freaking out today, nothing has changed in over a week. The timing hasn't moved, some have just gotten impatient. NWS says they expect the MJO to have little impact on upcoming pattern, besides its rocketing through the unfavorable phases and will be approaching phase 7 or the circle by the 26th/27th. 12z EPS Telleconections: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 15 minutes ago, WidreMann said: NCEP site shows much less support for -NAO/-AO. PNA is near neutral too. MJO went COD and now is back in the unfavorable zones. When is this magical cold pattern going to set up? To me it just looks like cold shots and warmups for the next two weeks. Sure, the CFS shows really cold weeks 2-4, but when do I truly believe the CFS (unless it says warm, then we can trust it). Jan25. 0z gfs almost laid white carpet down for it. Actually does in all Virginia. Got good seperation on the trailing vort, but the front hangs up, just need a little more nudge and we might score. We have a window , 4 weeks if the weeklies are right starting post jan25. Maybe we dont get 1985 cold. Ill trade it for a couple frozen precip chances. But from jan 25 to March 1st we are polar opposite of that same time last year. From what i read the quick mjo trip through 4,5,6 isnt gonna matter this time like recently. So take that for what its worth. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, Waiting on snow said: He's not near the coast. He's a prisoner of the 85 down to I20 screwzone and he hasn't picked up more than a dusting in 5 years! I, however, have a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Id keep an eye on mid week. 0zGfs puts down 6 inches northern Rockingham county. Big Frosty scores a couple and 20 minute from his house 15 in fancy gap. Fact ground gets dusted to northeren guilford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Id keep an eye on mid week. 0zGfs puts down 6 inches northern Rockingham county. Big Frosty scores a couple and 20 minute from his house 15 in fancy gap. Fact ground gets dusted to northeren guilford. 24th... Just as I have been saying the last few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Really good run on the Euro. 24th is getting much more interesting than I expected, a couple clippers, and a nice event unfolding at the end of the run again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, SnowDawg said: Really good run on the Euro. 24th is getting much more interesting than I expected, a couple clippers, and a nice event unfolding at the end of the run again. So much energy flying around... I suspect something will go boom 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 hours ago, NCSNOW said: When we get to March 1st, I hope we come back and re visit these past few pages and couple of weeks of Lucy-Flu we all have been affected by. Well eitheir be saying I told you so or laughing at ourselves for worrying for nothing. If we cant hit one over the fence somewhere in this forum with this look we are evolving into,then we might as well be throwing jax against the wall next November and stepping on wooly worms, while we burn seasonal models and the farmers almanac. It may only take one swing to get the ball over the fence, but the whole winter has been a “ pitch out” intentional walk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 All in on 6z GFS!! Looks great for Wed/Thur especially for NC! It’s how we score out of this dumpster fire pattern! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: All in on 6z GFS!! Looks great for Wed/Thur especially for NC! It’s how we score out of this dumpster fire pattern! SURPRISE! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 24 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: All in on 6z GFS!! Looks great for Wed/Thur especially for NC! It’s how we score out of this dumpster fire pattern! Yep, sure is. I see another storm with I-85 written on it. Maybe this time the trends are in better for those areas south of 85. Let's bring this one home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Problem with the 6z GFS is it doesn’t have support from other models and the event is close at 6/7 days out. Other models would need to trend quickly today for this to be “real” or I would sucspect the 12z GFS is going to go back north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, FallsLake said: Problem with the 6z GFS is it doesn’t have support from other models and the event is close at 6/7 days out. Other models would need to trend quickly today for this to be “real” or I would sucspect the 12z GFS is going to go back north. It’s been on since yesterday’s runs, and is better than Euro, it’s all we got! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, mackerel_sky said: It’s been on since yesterday’s runs, and is better than Euro, it’s all we got! Did other models show it? Asking because. I’m in Boone visiting family and haven’t been able to check model runs to well on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just read RAH discussion. As of last night they are siding with the euro’s more north track. But they did mention the GFS and of course this discussion was before the 6z came out. So hopfully the euro corrects south today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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