BullCityWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 59 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Dates we have had to punt: 12/14 12/18 12/24-26 Whole week between Christmas and New Years 1/9 1/15 1/20 (although it is on the table for the mts) 1/24-28 (looks lost for now) 6z GFS storm is now on 1/31 Edit: 6z FV3 is garbage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Yeah... Opening drive touchdown on the 9th, punt every drive since... (I've been keeping count) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said: Dates we have had to punt: 12/14 12/18 12/24-26 Whole week between Christmas and New Years 1/9 1/15 1/20 (although it is on the table for the mts) 1/24-28 (looks lost for now) 6z GFS storm is now on 1/31 Edit: 6z FV3 is garbage This was always going to be a back-half winter. The fact that many cashed in for the early December storm was the true “rabbit out of the hat” scenario. I’ve maintained that we would begin the step down to a cooler pattern this past week with a largely cold pattern taking over, more often than not, and for a quite a while, once our Sunday system passes this weekend. The window, to me, for the favorable weather pattern for Southeast and East winter storms only really begins after this weekend’s system. And it always has. So no punting to me. There have been quite a few folks commit false starts, but we are about to receive the second half kickoff, and we’ve held our best plays for the second half. Time to play ball. 21 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, msuwx said: This was always going to be a back-half winter. The fact that many cashed in for the early December storm was the true “rabbit out of the hat” scenario. I’ve maintained that we would begin the step down to a cooler pattern this past week with a largely cold pattern taking over, more often than not, and for a quite a while, once our Sunday system passes this weekend. The window, to me, for the favorable weather pattern for Southeast and East winter storms only really begins after this weekend’s system. And it always has. So no punting to me. There have been quite a few folks commit false starts, but we are about to receive the second half kickoff, and we’ve held our best plays for the second half. Time to play ball. Hope the players on the field, play better than Alabama!? Would hope they don’t pull a fake punt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Hope the players on the field, play better than Alabama!? Would hope they don’t pull a fake punt! Alabama? Don't you mean better than Notre Same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Alabama? Don't you mean better than Notre Same? He views Clemson they way I view the Southeast ridge and summer wx. Thus the disdain for Alabama causing him whaling and nashing of teeth living in Tiger town the next 365 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Hope the players on the field, play better than Alabama!? Would hope they don’t pull a fake punt! Or the QB doesn't get ousted for point shaving. Things do look to be aligning better now, though. At least cold is showing up frequently in the pattern now. And it would be hard to believe that storm chances dry up, as active as things have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 He views Clemson they way I view the Southeast ridge and summer wx. Thus the disdain for Alabama causing him whaling and nashing of teeth living in Tiger town the next 365 days.As you can tell by my Avatar (Tiger fan since 1978) I have been on cloud nine this whole season. Actually since Lawrence was named starter and he didn’t miss any time after the Syracuse game. I became a fan of Clemson after the whole Woody Hayes incident. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Or the QB doesn't get ousted for point shaving. Things do look to be aligning better now, though. At least cold is showing up frequently in the pattern now. And it would be hard to believe that storm chances dry up, as active as things have been. Think we should lean on the king Euro since the GFS isn't worth a botched onside kick right now? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 14 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: How’d these 2 amazing storms do for Gastonia?? I was there at the time, but 4-5 years old! Whats up Mack? I was 7 years old and remember it. I lived in the Oakdale area of Charlotte (North CLT) and remember 6-8". I need to check on that though. It was right before my father got Pancreas cancer and I remember him coming home from Eastern Airlines and having a snowball fight with us. Great times brother. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12z slightly more suppressed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Starting to get a steady flow of fantasy op looks that include the ens idea of a stout neg nao building inside of 2 weeks. Getting close to a lock that it's really happening. We'll know within a week. I've run through lots of data over the years and it's much more common in my area to get snow when the AO/NAO are rising upwards in negative territory. I have a hunch you guys do better with the opposite. One of your data heads can confirm. If that's the case, the last week of Jan looks really good for the SE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Starting to get a steady flow of fantasy op looks that include the ens idea of a stout neg nao building inside of 2 weeks. Getting close to a lock that it's really happening. We'll know within a week. I've run through lots of data over the years and it's much more common in my area to get snow when the AO/NAO are rising upwards in negative territory. I have a hunch you guys do better with the opposite. One of your data heads can confirm. If that's the case, the last week of Jan looks really good for the SE. The silence in here at 12z is deafening. I know its an op run but it looks pretty dry after we rain twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Starting to get a steady flow of fantasy op looks that include the ens idea of a stout neg nao building inside of 2 weeks. Getting close to a lock that it's really happening. We'll know within a week. I've run through lots of data over the years and it's much more common in my area to get snow when the AO/NAO are rising upwards in negative territory. I have a hunch you guys do better with the opposite. One of your data heads can confirm. If that's the case, the last week of Jan looks really good for the SE. Yes sir. Honestly, in the pattern depicted, I think the next event we get here is a high ratio clipper where we squeeze 3” out of a couple tenths. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 hours ago, tramadoc said: As you can tell by my Avatar (Tiger fan since 1978) I have been on cloud nine this whole season. Actually since Lawrence was named starter and he didn’t miss any time after the Syracuse game. I became a fan of Clemson after the whole Woody Hayes incident. . I remember that incident. I was rooting for clemson. Had privelage of meeting Dabo and that staff couple times. They are quality folks. What u see on tv is what you get in person. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Yes sir. Honestly, in the pattern depicted, I think the next event we get here is a high ratio clipper where we squeeze 3” out of a couple tenths. Want to know how easy it is to get caught off guard with ns systems being part of equation. Go in mtn thread this afternoon. Boone has advisory now,but models and nws getting ready to get sideswipped and it aint just gonna be flurries or sprinkle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: The silence in here at 12z is deafening. I know its an op run but it looks pretty dry after we rain twice. It could be dryish on the front side as the TPV drops in. It's a significant pattern change and very well could squash big juiced up storm chances for a time but the tradeoff is entering a backgound state that favors snow over heavy rain. EPS has Raleigh getting around .60 QPF from the 25th through the end of Jan. That's actually a half decent mean and doesn't indicate overly dry. I've seen mean QPF be as low as .10 for d10-15 on the EPS. That's an exceptionally dry mean. Right now it looks good enough. I just want to get rid of the heavy rainer west track pattern. You have to start somewhere... lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Or the QB doesn't get ousted for point shaving. Things do look to be aligning better now, though. At least cold is showing up frequently in the pattern now. And it would be hard to believe that storm chances dry up, as active as things have been. I swear, if we get entrenched into a nice cold pattern and the STJ dries up...man I'll be so distraught. I'll give up at that point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 19 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: The silence in here at 12z is deafening. I know its an op run but it looks pretty dry after we rain twice. Itll change by late this weekend if not sooner. All you have to do is watch 500 vort maps and see energy flying all over the place and knowing the cold is there.. Also models,espeacilly American, arent gonna sniff out how all this works,phases,feedbacks etc till close in. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It could be dryish on the front side as the TPV drops in. It's a significant pattern change and very well could squash big juiced up storm chances for a time but the tradeoff is entering a backgound state that favors snow over heavy rain. EPS has Raleigh getting around .60 QPF from the 25th through the end of Jan. That's actually a half decent mean and doesn't indicate overly dry. I've seen mean QPF be as low as .10 for d10-15 on the EPS. That's an exceptionally dry mean. Right now it looks good enough. I just want to get rid of the heavy rainer west track pattern. You have to start somewhere... lol That is true! Let's hope we don't have to wait too long. I've had my seasonal average but it's still frustrating when you swing and miss close by! But there are a lot of areas south and east of 85 that are in a multi year snow drought!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Itll change by late this weekend if not sooner. All you have to do is watch 500 bort maps and see energy flying all over the place and knowing the cold is there.. Also models,espeacilly American, arent gonna sniff out how all this works,phases,feedbacks etc till close in. That's definitely correct. It's hard for me to be optimistic about snow in the Carolina's regardless of the pattern. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I keep hammering this home, too. For those worried about it being too cold: you need less moisture for snow the colder it is. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Next Wednesday/ Thursday system looks interesting for here in Southern VA... looks like a Rain to Snow Scenario... but some light accumulations could be possible with that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Moderate snow here in Marion right now. The weather year that keeps on giving. This snow was not in the forecast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Moderate snow here in Marion right now. The weather year that keeps on giving. This snow was not in the forecast. Yep and mtn guys getting Heavy snow now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said: Dates we have had to punt: 12/14 12/18 12/24-26 Whole week between Christmas and New Years 1/9 1/15 1/20 (although it is on the table for the mts) 1/24-28 (looks lost for now) 6z GFS storm is now on 1/31 Edit: 6z FV3 is garbage We’ve not once had a legitimate winter storm threat yet, so idk what you’re punting. Something popping up once once on an OP run is not a storm threat. The only thing we’ve really been tracking is the pattern flip, and it got pushed back one time because it was apparent pretty early on that the SSW impacts would be delayed. Since then it has been rock steady, warning shot on the 20th, and full on pattern flip after the 24th/25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Yep and mtn guys getting Heavy snow now Yeah they were forecasted to get this. I love getting snow when it’s not in the forecast. Something about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 21 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I keep hammering this home, too. For those worried about it being too cold: you need less moisture for snow the colder it is. I'm not worried about it being too cold per say, but the pattern shifting to be northern stream dominant, like what the operationals are starting to show right now long range. Likely due to the big PV setting up shop in central Canada, with low pressure energy circling around it. With so much moisture from the pacific jet over the last several months, it would be beyond ironic and sad to have it dry up right when we finally have fresh cold nearby. Clipper systems I just do not have any trust in to get snow east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 49 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: I swear, if we get entrenched into a nice cold pattern and the STJ dries up...man I'll be so distraught. I'll give up at that point. According to MA big dogs the STJ isn't drying up, but just getting squashed way down by the TPV. Same effect while it is happening , but easier to recover from I would think. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheers for Western Ears Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 36 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Next Wednesday/ Thursday system looks interesting for here in Southern VA... looks like a Rain to Snow Scenario... but some light accumulations could be possible with that storm. Seems like the chances of some backside snow look better for NC folks as well. According to the 12z fv3 that is.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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