wncsnow Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Like i have said before, flooding is the immediate concern.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, wncsnow said: Like i have said before, flooding is the immediate concern.. Yeah hitting a lot of the hardest hit areas this past month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah hitting a lot of the hardest hit areas this past month. Yea escarpment areas had over 100 inches of rain last year and are off to a quick start already for 2019...With the southerly flow out ahead of the fronts I think they will get hit hard with the upcoming pattern 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 26 minutes ago, FallsLake said: We don't know what's going to happen: I mean I'm as skeptical as anyone on this ever amounting to anything for us in the Southeast, but an hour 384 on the GFS with absolutely no ensemble support from the GEFS or EPS should be thrown out like the garbage it is. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTriadwx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I have a question for someone/anyone. How can you have a -AO, -NAO, +PNA and a -EPO and have the MJO in a warm phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 58 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: I mean I'm as skeptical as anyone on this ever amounting to anything for us in the Southeast, but an hour 384 on the GFS with absolutely no ensemble support from the GEFS or EPS should be thrown out like the garbage it is. It would certainly be wrong if it showed cold and snow. But a 384 op run can nail a torch at that range. Smdh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 hours ago, NCSNOW said: at 96/ 12z : May help with some back side Has support from the EPS and now the 18z NAM. Still not excited, but keeping an eye on the (slim) possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: Like i have said before, flooding is the immediate concern.. Been a historical weather year here the past 12 months. 105+ inches of rain, over 15 inches of snow this winter, and 3 ice storms. Oh it’s just January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Been a historical weather year here the past 12 months. 105+ inches of rain, over 15 inches of snow this winter, and 3 ice storms. Oh it’s just January. And the best is yet to come for winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 12 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: And the best is yet to come for winter. 12Z EPS today Agrees: AND 12z GEFS Agrees/Matches 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I'll be curious to see if this holds on tomorrow's models and doesn't slide out to the 27th or 28th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, CaryWx said: I'll be curious to see if this holds on tomorrow's models and doesn't slide out to the 27th or 28th That has been surprisingly consistent to this point, I don't expect it to change. Pattern establishes following the 2nd storm, questions in my opinion are the longevity and whether it ever matches up with moisture. This is the GEFS from last Thursday for same exact time though, to this point the goal posts haven't moved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Can't help but notice the GFS trended better for the first storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 This looks good... even though its 9-10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Still snowing after this frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Lots of late bloomers on that run that were close to being good forum wide, instead NC keeps most of it to themselves again lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Good things are coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Wow said: Good things are coming More rain , in between cold fronts!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Have you guys seen the warm noses the gfs has in the LR for NE GA and the Upstate ? Everytime theres a modeled front, those places get left out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 18z is back to reality. Brings back the trough instead of the ridge that 12z was showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 This is the GFS sounding for KECG at 00 UTC. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 hours ago, NTriadwx said: I have a question for someone/anyone. How can you have a -AO, -NAO, +PNA and a -EPO and have the MJO in a warm phase? So the MJO deals with where convection is being enhanced / suppressed in the tropics, and this typically has a large influence on the EPO and PNA patterns across the Pacific and North America. For this time of year, when the convection is enhanced from the Eastern Indian Ocean, to the Maritime Continent (Indonesia), to the Western Pacific (phases 3-6), a +EPO / -PNA pattern is favored (central / eastern U.S. ridging). When the convection is suppressed in those same regions (phases 7-8-1-2), a -EPO / +PNA pattern is favored (central / eastern U.S. troughing). But that is what is "favored". Other processes will influence the overall pattern. With the NOAA MJO update I posted a few pages back, they favor the MJO making a quick trek through phases 3-4-5 in week 1, before making a move toward phase 7 in week 2, and they state that the MJO is not expected to have a large influence on the pattern. In spite of that, for a cold eastern U.S., we never want to see the MJO in the warm phases (3-4-5-6), so it remains to be see whether forecasted -EPO / +PNA patterns come to fruition - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51836-mid-to-long-term-discussion-2019/?do=findComment&comment=5117686 The MJO does have some influence on the AO and NAO but the processes which produce AO/NAO blocking are complex and can be largely separate from the MJO, including stratospheric influences. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Whew not sure if that has happened in Greensboro before 10 degrees and snowing ! lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I get Goldilocks inside 10days... Heck yeah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, mclean02 said: Whew not sure if that has happened in Greensboro before 10 degrees and snowing ! lol I don't understand how that can be snow, with that sounding, that's like, the opposite of saturated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, mclean02 said: Whew not sure if that has happened in Greensboro before 10 degrees and snowing ! lol You wouldn't have to worry about ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, olafminesaw said: I don't understand how that can be snow, with that sounding, that's like, the opposite of saturated. Good point 11 degrees with snow on the ground then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 46 minutes ago, mclean02 said: Whew not sure if that has happened in Greensboro before 10 degrees and snowing ! lol Ive been fortunate to witness various types of wx events live. That would be a first. Closest was wind chill , in blizzard 1993 in cullowhee. I have seen heavy sleet at 19 degrees and heavy moderate freezing rain at 22 both in NC. 1988 was a cold synoptic snow upper teens. But 10 degrees and mod snow id love to expierence. Instant stickage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Ive been fortunate to witness various types of wx events live. That would be a first. Closest was wind chill , in blizzard 1993 in cullowhee. I have seen heavy sleet at 19 degrees and heavy moderate freezing rain at 22 both in NC. 1988 was a cold synoptic snow upper teens. But 10 degrees and mod snow id love to expierence. Instant stickage. Had that in the March 2, 1980 snowstorm. Heavy snow and a temp of 9 degrees. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts