PackGrad05 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 We just don't get big snows in NC with very cold air. Often times, the cold air has to be right at freezing or marginal so that the storms aren't suppressed all the way down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 17 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: We just don't get big snows in NC with very cold air. Often times, the cold air has to be right at freezing or marginal so that the storms aren't suppressed all the way down south. Some of the coldest Januarys I've seen had very little snow. In those years it seemed February came through to save the day (...just from memory). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I think it is safe to say we lost the storm for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, FallsLake said: Some of the coldest Januarys I've seen had very little snow. In those years it seemed February came through to save the day (...just from memory). From my lifetime, 2010 comes to mind, but i got lucky with that Coastal Crusher last year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Indices continue to look good: PNA - Briefly gets to neutral in the short term but goes back positive into the LR NAO - Looks to go negative in the LR (this may help suppress our storm track) AO - Man it almost tanks off the charts (that's going to drive some cold air southward) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: From my lifetime, 2010 comes to mind, but i got lucky with that Coastal Crusher last year If we get the cold that's advertised, folks in south Ga, east SC, and coastal NC could get a huge storm. Many to the west may stay cold/dry (for a specific storm). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Indices continue to look good: PNA - Briefly gets to neutral in the short term but goes back positive into the LR NAO - Looks to go negative in the LR (this may help suppress our storm track) AO - Man it almost tanks off the charts (that's going to drive some cold air southward) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Off the chart -AO coupled with a -NAO and +PNA? That just sounds too good to be true #flyintheointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 We go from 60 degrees at dawn on Sunday to 14 degrees by 1AM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Queencitywx said: We go from 60 degrees at dawn on Sunday to 14 degrees by 1AM. FV3 or old GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: FV3 or old GFS? Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 37 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: We just don't get big snows in NC with very cold air. Often times, the cold air has to be right at freezing or marginal so that the storms aren't suppressed all the way down south. Jan 88 says Hola 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Jan 88 says Hola So does 2/18/1979 - PD1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Looking to the skies Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, CentralNC said: So does 2/18/1979 - PD1 The Old man of the Mountain March 1993 says Hola too... The big daddy of them all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Euro Same time range you put I got from 54 at dawn Sunday to 24 at 1am Monday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 You guys can talk about too cold (suppression) for snow all you want but I know one thing living in the southeast for over 50yrs. We need cold temps for snow and they do not come around very often for any decent duration. We are in the se part of of north american continent with water on two sides and mountains to the west. The precip will almost always come. Guaranteed. The cold enough temps?--not so much. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Same time range you put I got from 54 at dawn Sunday to 24 at 1am Monday... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, CaryWx said: You guys can talk about too cold (suppression) for snow all you want but I know one thing living in the southeast for over 50yrs. We need cold temps for snow and they do not come around very often for any decent duration. We are in the se part of of north american continent with water on two sides and mountains to the west. The precip will almost always come. Guaranteed. The cold enough temps?--not so much. Yup. That is my philosophy. get me the coldest air i can have and then i'll worry about supression. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Also, think about it this way: the colder your column is, the less moisture you need. If you grow the snow growth zone, you get higher ratios and powder. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 52 minutes ago, CaryWx said: You guys can talk about too cold (suppression) for snow all you want but I know one thing living in the southeast for over 50yrs. We need cold temps for snow and they do not come around very often for any decent duration. We are in the se part of of north american continent with water on two sides and mountains to the west. The precip will almost always come. Guaranteed. The cold enough temps?--not so much. Winter temperatures to date 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, griteater said: Winter temperatures to date Regardless of how cold it gets I think its gonna be very hard for JB to be right with his negative 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, griteater said: Winter temperatures to date Wasn't that predicted in November with the ensembles? Cooler out west and warmer in the East for December? This goes in line with a moderate El Niño. The East gets hit hard with cold temps in February and March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 28 minutes ago, griteater said: Winter temperatures to date I'm only at +1? I will take that compared to a Super Nino torchfest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 31 minutes ago, CADEffect said: Wasn't that predicted in November with the ensembles? Cooler out west and warmer in the East for December? This goes in line with a moderate El Niño. The East gets hit hard with cold temps in February and March. You are correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 From NOAA's latest MJO Weekly Update... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The day 15 EPS analogs have both Atlanta Snowjams, lol - Jan 1982 and Jan 2014 (image courtesy of @commoditywx) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 hour ago, griteater said: Winter temperatures to date If that map was on a multiple choice and it said guess the wx pattern: A) la-Nina b) Neutral C) El nino. C would be the last guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 hour ago, Waiting on snow said: Regardless of how cold it gets I think its gonna be very hard for JB to be right with his negative 3-5. I've seen -8 month averages from departure before. Rare, but it can happen. He aint out of it yet. Still got 50% winter left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Ukie could bode well for NE NC and SE VA with this track Sunday/Backside as Cold air flies in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 hours ago, griteater said: Winter temperatures to date So JBs winter forecast of -4 or -5 for us, could be in jeopardy??? He still says it’s going to verify , as of last week! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 hours ago, FallsLake said: Indices continue to look good: PNA - Briefly gets to neutral in the short term but goes back positive into the LR NAO - Looks to go negative in the LR (this may help suppress our storm track) AO - Man it almost tanks off the charts (that's going to drive some cold air southward) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Jan 2019 will be the 18th straight meteorological Winter month (Dec-Jan-Feb) of +NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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