Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 9 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Generally for us in eastern NC anyways it seems like the models never really pick up on the threat in a meaningful way until its 5-7 days out.....there is potential in the models after Jan 20th. This is very true with ops and also ops and ensembles struggle with timing of large scale pattern changes. Both our regions are dealing with what appears to be a stubborn WAR through d10 or so. That feature alone keeps my expectations low in the MA. However, it's all part of what should be a flip towards extensive high latitude blocking as the WAR gets pushed into the NAO region. Might take a couple storms to do it. Just no way to know this far out. IF (big if) you believe the GEFS' progression, north america goes from this at d10: To this at d15: What can go wrong? Everything... lol. What is my best guess? I do believe the ens guidance has the progression right but how quickly it gets to being REALLY good is up for much debate. My total WAG and best guess is the GEFS is too fast but it's coming anyway. We'll know in 5 days when d15 becomes d10. Ens have been pretty good through d10 but have really missed things (good and bad) beyond d10. I'm rooting for you guys (like always). I hope you guys get smoked before the month is out. ETA: 0z EPS looks very similar to the GEFS d15. GEPS is a little slower with knocking down the WAR. I generally stick to the EPS/GEFS combo and when they look mostly identical it usually means they have it mostly right. If they diverge or anything looks like it's going to screw things up I'll be quick to say as much. For now it's hard not to feel good about late Jan and possibly all of Feb. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 23 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Yep the 10 day euro and eps from 0Z are solid on SER. So thats why tramadoc you see the warmup by next wednesday. Lets all hope that trends away at 12z today. Otherwise we may be finding ourselves head faked again by this post 20th holy grail lock down pattern. Getting a bad feeling in my stomach SER is gonna throw a monkey wrench in things last of Jan into Feb. Clock starts ticking Friday. Have exactly 6 weeks till March1st and we all know what that means. Plus Friday kicks off sun angle season and all that other jibe that comes along with it. Yeah that very well could be a response to the Euro starting to pick up MJO going through unfavorable phases. Only solace is, that it’s moving fast and could be all the way back to more favorable in a weeks time. And even on the GFS/GEFS the lock down pattern flip has moved from behind the 20th system to behind the 23rd-25th one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Fun run of the FV3. Out in fantasy land, but at ~ day 12/13 the arctic air really takes over. Looks like last January type cold. Even has a couple of small snow events. ~mid day on the 29th (even colder air is posed to come down afterwards): 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Almost a Banana HP, LP would just slide underneth us. Wishfull thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Fun run of the FV3. Out in fantasy land, but at ~ day 12/13 the arctic air really takes over. Looks like last January type cold. Even has a couple of small snow events. ~mid day on the 29th (even colder air is posed to come down afterwards): Only 15 days away! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Here's day 16. If we still end up getting rain it will be rain storms over frozen ponds: Edit: Could you imagine the lake effect snows... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Euro ends up placing weekend LP right over Richmond. Think this might benefit NW NC Mtns on backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Almost a Banana HP, LP would just slide underneth us. Wishfull thinking A lot could still change...looks better then yesterday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Euro ends up placing weekend LP right over Richmond. Think this might benefit NW NC Mtns on backside need it further south for me in the upstate. Timing matches up with the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Only 15 days away! That’s a familiar saying.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I like this look a lot at the end of the FV3. This is what we want. Usually, these aren't worth looking at. But given where we *should* be headed, we'll probably see more of this type of configuration showing up: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: I like this look a lot at the end of the FV3. This is what we want. Usually, these aren't worth looking at. But given where we *should* be headed, we'll probably see more of this type of configuration showing up: CR, how do you identify the storm track on the 5h maps? Why did you draw the line specifically where you did there? I know it's suppressed based on the -NAO/PV but why right there? Thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 https://mobile.twitter.com/DaDaBuh/status/1084894438357377026 Massive cold on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Good question. It's somewhat subjective, but it's pretty close. In the first image, the black lines represent the upper level shortwave energy in the southern jet stream. Usually, a low will form out ahead of that energy, north of the base. In this case, I'd expect surface reflections of various strengths somewhere near the red Xs. Even if no strong surface low forms, the upper level energy depicted here could still provide enough lift for precipitation. The second image shows the shortwave energy more clearly. I've circled it. It's a long way out, and who knows what the energy will look like in terms of how strong it is or how it will be oriented. But the pattern is a good one, and if it turns out to evolve that way, you can bet that there will be energy flowing through the pattern. Let's get the pattern to move into the short term, and we can start to look more closely at the shape and strength of any shortwaves that are there. Hope this is helpful. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 FWIW- 12z EPS has sped up the flip to a -NAO by about a day... It's less than 15 days away. Starts building d10 and goes from there. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: FWIW- 12z EPS has sped up the flip to a -NAO by about a day... It's less than 15 days away. Starts building d10 and goes from there. Thanks, Bob. That's cool...it usually goes the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: FWIW- 12z EPS has sped up the flip to a -NAO by about a day... It's less than 15 days away. Starts building d10 and goes from there. Thanks Bob. Yes our local TV mets were mentioning earlier the GFS and Euro see the same thing but as you had mentioned earlier somewhere it was just timing that was off. Euro was lagging I believe. This creates more certainty when both of the top LR models see the same thing but just maybe not exactly the same time alignment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 50 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: https://mobile.twitter.com/DaDaBuh/status/1084894438357377026 Massive cold on the Euro This is somewhat transient though. By mid week more seasonable/slightly-below temps return I believe. More longer duration killer cold comes in the last week of the month if I'm reading things correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 17 minutes ago, CaryWx said: This is somewhat transient though. By mid week more seasonable/slightly-below temps return I believe. More longer duration killer cold comes in the last week of the month if I'm reading things correctly. Yep. Evolution of the pattern is fairly identical to the GEFS. Transient first shot, then following waves help to finish beating down the West Atlantic ridge and establish the Greenland block. After that things seem rather locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 25 degrees for the high IMBY next Monday if you believe the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Anxiously awaiting Grits report on the Euro weeklies tonight! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Looking to the skies Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 40 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Anxiously awaiting Grits report on the Euro weeklies tonight! In the meantime, here are the top 10 analog match dates (your favorite Mack, lol) for day 11-15 from the 12z EPS (courtesy of @ChrisDevitoWX) 12z EPS Day 10-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 ^ -NAO is much better in the analog composite compared to the actual EPS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 So even though we will be turning colder, our best shots at wintry weather will be maybe later in the month once the pattern settles in? Maybe we can get more suppressed tracks then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 RAH not very impressed with the snow chances next weekend, but I like their talk about the cold (gives me chills): Significant flow amplification, spanning multiple streams, is forecast next weekend into early next, with a resultant full latitude trough forecast to migrate from the cntl US on Sat to the East Coast by Mon, and following cross polar, nwly flow delivered all the way to the Sunshine State. Deepening low pressure will accompany the trough aloft and cross the srn-cntl Appalachians and middle Atlantic states late Sat through early Sun. While preceding mild, warm sector flow should envelop much of the sern US and Carolinas, some degree of cold air damming, from clouds and rain that will overspread the nrn and wrn Piedmont on Sat, may hold those areas in an appreciably cooler regime (40s), versus the growing warm sector 50s-60s elsewhere late Sat-early Sun. A half an inch to an inch of rain-soaking appears likely Sat night, with sharply colder temperatures --and the leading edge of 1040-1045 mb Arctic high pressure-- plunging across cntl NC Sun afternoon and night. A limited spatio-temporal overlap of departing deep moisture and incoming cold suggests any changeover from rain to snow on the back side of the frontal system would be very brief, on the order of an hour or two at most, and consequently light and non-impactful. More impactful will be the aforementioned incoming Arctic airmass, which will likely produce the coldest temperatures of the season, and a legitimate risk of sub-zero wind chill values, by Mon morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I guess this just goes to show you can talk about a perfect pattern all you want, but in the South it will absolutely always take threading needle and getting perfect timing to get snow. At least there’s no shortage of waves to try and time up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Apparently that Ji character in the MA forum has a weather Facebook page and has this big following. No one knew about it till today and the ribbon hes getting is hilarious. People in the DC area are talking like its the only place to get your weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 12 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: TN gonna be day 200% of normal snow in no time! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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