JoshM Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 10 minutes ago, Grayman said: Who will be the first one to Get suckered in by the hour 366 GFS? Wait I just posted so that’s me. I will never learn to stop looking at fantasy snow. It’s the only kind I get The GFS has been so off lately, I wouldn't trust any storm unless it was coming tomorrow. Look how bad it's handled this weekends rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 Yes it was a joke. I don’t trust any long term model , but we got to start with something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 33 minutes ago, Grayman said: Who will be the first one to Get suckered in by the hour 366 GFS? Wait I just posted so that’s me. I will never learn to stop looking at fantasy snow. It’s the only kind I get 372 & 378 are even better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said: Hey Grit, what was the set up for the 73 surface map? A CAD, Miller A, or a rare "perfect storm" of conditions? Feb 1973 - Miller A for sure, with big, sprawling high to the NW. Not much of CAD signature. Feb 2010 SC storm was similar, but didn't even have a strong high to the N or NW - just a super suppressed storm track under a big -NAO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 Bigly cold bottled at the pole. Thats something models can agree on. Where does it go from there? That’s the million dollar question. One had to hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 37 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Bigly cold bottled at the pole. Thats something models can agree on. Where does it go from there? That’s the million dollar question. One had to hope I’d guess Europe, just like the last 10 winters 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 On 12/19/2019 at 9:31 PM, mackerel_sky said: GFS hasn’t wavered in the past 4-5 days, with no moisture making it much North of i-20. Rock steady and may be right! Never mind... GFS now adjusting northward on the 00z. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 That's a pretty tight rainfall gradient! Brad Panovich Meteorologist · There will be some serious rain across the South Carolina into parts of North Carolina over the next few days. The farther south you are the higher the totals. #cltwx #ncwx #scwx 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 That's a pretty tight rainfall gradient! Brad Panovich Meteorologist · There will be some serious rain across the South Carolina into parts of North Carolina over the next few days. The farther south you are the higher the totals. #cltwx #ncwx #scwx 31 Oh what could have been...Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 That might be overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 29 minutes ago, CaryWx said: That might be overdone Underdone... 6z Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Underdone... 6z Euro: Maybe. But if we get moisture robbed from convection along the Gulf and Atlantic it could lower those totals... Le sigh, if only this was all frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 Maybe. But if we get moisture robbed from convection along the Gulf and Atlantic it could lower those totals... Le sigh, if only this was all frozen.Midlands would be under 5-6 feet of snow... Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveRDU Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 2 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said: Oh what could have been... Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Just keep the moisture flowing and eventually we’ll score, right? That’s how we did it up in NYC when I lived there... I know I’m setting myself up for weenie suicide ‘round these parts. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 NWS stays mostly South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 January pattern still looks pretty wild 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 Just now, LithiaWx said: January pattern still looks pretty wild Wild good or Wild unpredictable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 CFS improving... 850mb temp anomalies 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 3 hours ago, CaryWx said: Wild good or Wild unpredictable? JMO wild good. Southern energy with more cold to tap than in December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 The question I'm getting from many of my friends/family is what's the weather going to be for Christmas. Last couple of days I've been telling them sunny with a high ~60. I may have to change that; RAH mentioned that a backdoor cold front may get pushed southward into the SE. Right now they're not sure how far south it will get (if it pushes southward). Some of the latest models are also interesting. Looking at RDU -- The GFS is the warmest with temps in the upper 50s at mid day. The euro and Canadian has temps in the low/mid 50s. And finally the NAM has temps in the upper 30s and low 40s through central NC. That would be a surprise change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 The clouds this morning have that angry gray, approaching Miller A look to them 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 The clouds this morning have that angry gray, approaching Miller A look to them But too warm...Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 12z NAM continues to show the backdoor cold front for Christmas. The NE to SW approach would put areas in central NC northeastward in the coolest air. RDU would have a high of ~40. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 ^^The up state of SC would have highs in the upper 50s while Myrtle Beach stays in the 40s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, FallsLake said: 12z NAM continues to show the backdoor cold front for Christmas. The NE to SW approach would put areas in central NC northeastward in the coolest air. RDU would have a high of ~40. Most forecasts I'm seeing are for 60s though. Any outlet putting stock in this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 Just now, CaryWx said: Most forecasts I'm seeing are for 60s though. Any outlet putting stock in this? RAH talked about he possibility in their overnight discussion. But they stated if the backdoor cold front pushed through, temps would be closer to normal for highs (more like the euro). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 12z GFS and Canadian have cooled (..backdoor cold front) for highs on Christmas day. Lots of low/mid 50s for highs. But they're still not close to the NAMs 30s/40s for central NC. At this point I would lean towards 50s for highs (goes with RAH thoughts). But it will be interesting to see if the models show cooler temps in the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 Jonathan Wall: Does this look like a model with any clue whatsoever of the dominating CONUS pattern at Day 13? It’s hard to describe how terrible the Op GFS is past ~Day 7... https://t.co/JHaYwENocf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 Why Is anyone looking at any op model at day 7 let alone day 13???? That's why they have ensembles. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said: Why Is anyone looking at any op model at day 7 let alone day 13???? That's why they have ensembles. I think it would be fascinating to somehow quantify how data access and availability changes our perception about weather. I'm sure if the Euro and other models went out to 384 hrs like the GFS does, it would be just as bad. At the same time, the fact that OP models are mostly free and easy to access makes it so that more people can see them and more easily take the extremes they may bring seriously, particularly when it comes to the GFS. Tropical Tidbits and similar sites make shiny and fun maps so easy to come by in the long range that it can cloud our perceptions. Pivotal recently made more ECMWF data free, but most data from it and all the ensembles are behind pay walls. If it were the other way around and the Euro/the full range of the EPS, GEFS, etc. were free and easily accessed, I would be willing to bet we'd have different conversations on this site. That's not to criticize the data being behind paywalls, people deserve to make money, but since that's the reality, it limits the conversations most of us can have (aside from screenshots from some generous posters in this thread) to long range GFS OP runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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