CaryWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 A 980 off the coast would have to be throwing some serious moisture back NW...more than depicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 KucheraSent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 10:1Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, CaryWx said: A 980 off the coast would have to be throwing some serious moisture back NW...more than depicted 100%! Southeast moisture flow and advection would create lift and wring out the atmosphere. The low is undergoing what would normally transpire off the cape and southeast new england after it passes our latitude. Good stuff 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 I would imagine at that strength favored mountain regions could see SE flow snow for a while afterwards even if not very visible on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Florence to Fayetteville / I-95 special? As others have said it is just good to have potential. Definitely want to see other models key in on some similar features by mid week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 GFS HI-RESSent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Personally I think the GFS is just pulling us in and playing with us like a casino, but the model is throwing out interesting looks nevertheless. The one thing that stands out about the GFS is that it is deeper with the upper low/wave than the other models, and thus, colder. Here's tonight's UKMet at hr144 - the wave is closed off there in Texas, but it's not very strong / not very deep...and the high pressure strength / positioning isn't as good due to its upper level pattern across central and eastern Canada 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 48hr QPF from 12/21 0z-12/23 0z Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, griteater said: Personally I think the GFS is just pulling us in and playing with us like a casino, but the model is throwing out interesting looks nevertheless. The one thing that stands out about the GFS is that it is deeper with the upper low/wave than the other models, and thus, colder. Here's tonight's UKMet at hr144 - the wave is closed off there in Texas, but it's not very strong / not very deep...and the high pressure strength / positioning isn't as good due to its upper level pattern across central and eastern Canada Agreed. Even though it looks good, until either the Ukie or Euro pick it up it’s fools gold. Nice to look at though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 The Canadian, UKMET and ICON are all firm no. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: Agreed. Even though it looks good, until either the Ukie or Euro pick it up it’s fools gold. Nice to look at though. The Dec 8&9 storm last year was picked up way early by the GFS ?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 The Dec 8&9 storm last year was picked up way early by the GFS ?? The infamous 15 day thread... Yeah, every other model missedSent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Ok. Everyone needs to chill out a second. Let me list some things out to keep in mind when discussing a storm like this: 1. This is 180 hours out and pinpointing a "corridor" of snow right now is a fools errand. Multiple models still have the scenario of this thing diving into Florida and being a mild rainstorm with a stiff east breeze for the Carolinas. Including the Euro. 2. A bowling ball low pressure diving SE-ward then bombing off the coast is incredibly anomalous. 99% of the time, it's not how we get snow here. The "tracks", the imaginary snow walls (Wake County), the highways, and everything else that get used to establish a forecast will likely not work if a GFS-like scenario came into fruition. 3. I can't stress enough how much convective feedback is going to screw with the surface reflection and ultimately moisture transport with this storm. I would not pay attention at all to the precip shield or anything like that for the time being. The snow maps are fun, and in "paste bombs" could look historic- don't take the bait. If you're just learning, convective feedback is an issue some models have when forecasting convection (think: thunderstorms). Global models' grid spacing makes it tough to accurately render convection, and this can "fool" the models into forecasting inaccuracies since convection has a major role in how these synoptic scale will behave. Case in point; the 00z GFS, here is 850mb vorticity: Essentially, the GFS is treating almost every thunderstorm as its own spinning entity. Chances are our system won't be this completely elongated, and moisture transport will be better to our NW. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Can I point out the NAVGEM has our bowling ball?... hr144 (very end of the run)Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 GEFS backed off slightly but still much higher than yesterday. Bullseye still over WNC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: 2. A bowling ball low pressure diving SE-ward then bombing off the coast is incredibly anomalous. 99% of the time, it's not how we get snow here. The "tracks", the imaginary snow walls (Wake County), the highways, and everything else that get used to establish a forecast will likely not work if a GFS-like scenario came into fruition. 3. I can't stress enough how much convective feedback is going to screw with the surface reflection and ultimately moisture transport with this storm. I would not pay attention at all to the precip shield or anything like that for the time being. The snow maps are fun, and in "paste bombs" could look historic- don't take the bait. If you're just learning, convective feedback is an issue some models have when forecasting convection (think: thunderstorms). Global models' grid spacing makes it tough to accurately render convection, and this can "fool" the models into forecasting inaccuracies since convection has a major role in how these synoptic scale will behave. Case in point; the 00z GFS, here is 850mb vorticity: Essentially, the GFS is treating almost every thunderstorm as its own spinning entity. Chances are our system won't be this completely elongated, and moisture transport will be better to our NW. I can only remember one similar situation in 39 years and that was the 3/2009 bowling ball that put down 9” across Lincoln/Gaston/Cleveland counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Ensemble numbers will probably be cut in half this run and there’s only one real big dog in there for the NC/SC Piedmont so your numbers are gonna be skewed by that. 17/21 members have zero snow. Not the sort of ensemble trend you want to see this early in the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 GEFSSent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Brad P posted this graphic in his video a week or so ago about the small ice event from this past week. It’s great to keep in mind for stuff like this. Right now, we’re still very much in the “looking at trends” phase. We’re not looking at amounts, we’re not looking at precip shields, we’re seeing if trends continue in the right direction. Today? We had a couple small steps in the right direction on one model and an ensemble. We still have a long way to go, if we’re lucky! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said: Brad P posted this graphic in his video a week or so ago about the small ice event from this past week. It’s great to keep in mind for stuff like this. Right now, we’re still very much in the “looking at trends” phase. We’re not looking at amounts, we’re not looking at precip shields, we’re seeing if trends continue in the right direction. Today? We had a couple small steps in the right direction on one model and an ensemble. We still have a long way to go, if we’re lucky! Don't forget this, as the storm trends the wrong way 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 EURO way better look at 96hrs (19th)Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Could it be... Is the EURO finally getting the signal?Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 6z gfs is just a thing of beauty. Just an absolute raking for the I40 area north. Storm goes from MYR to inside Wilmington to RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherzim Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Wjerr are you from again buddySent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 46 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: 6z gfs is just a thing of beauty. Just an absolute raking for the I40 area north. Storm goes from MYR to inside Wilmington to RIC. 6z was too warm from what i saw.. only mountain snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 GEFS 06zSent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Euro came close last night, if the HP stayed, had no GLL,, and the CAD was just a little better it would be on the board forSent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCGamecock Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Euro came close last night, if the HP stayed, had no GLL,, and the CAD was just a little better it would be on the board forSent from my A577VL using Tapatalk.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...As of 230 AM EST Sunday: Upper level heights begin to rise as aridge axis develops west of the fcst area Wed. A stg subs zone willencompass the region beginning Wed afternoon...which will allow a1028 mb sfc high to transit the se/rn states into Fri. This setupwill return clearing skies and cooler max/min temps...altho near orjust below normal levels each day. By Fri night...a developing h5trof will dig across the ern CONUS which will be a weather maker forthe FA into the weekend. Much uncertainty exists during this timeframe as the GFS and ECMWF models are at odds with the details ofthe trof config. The GFS is developing a closed low within the trofand diving it across GA/SC and off the Atl coast thru Sat...whilethe ECMWF keeps a faster non/closed trof axis crossing the area withlimited coastal sfc low development. The GFS scenario would bring adecent amt of wintry precip to the FA as colder air would have moretime to be advected south as the low deepens off the coast. Thelatest ECMWF on the other hand keeps the better moisture axis overthe ern zones with a limited freezing sfc-layer potential. Itsinteresting that the 00z ECMWF has trended more inline with thecolder and moister GFS soln...however this system will be monitoredover the upcoming week and much can change with the sensible weatherfcst. So for now...have a low-end chance sn or -ra/sn mix over thenorthern zones Fri night with limited/nil snow accums.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: Euro came close last night, if the HP stayed, had no GLL,, and the CAD was just a little better it would be on the board for Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk That's alot of ifs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts