HKY1894 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 The setup looks nice but expect more trends, worrisome to see euro suppressed but 12z made a step in right direction. The trends have been good today that’s all that can be said at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, HKY1894 said: The setup looks nice but expect more trends, worrisome to see euro suppressed but 12z made a step in right direction. The trends have been good today that’s all that can be said at this point. Am I imagining things or does Euro have a tendency to not be on steroids during a certain time frame. I know the tendency to not eject s/w out of the southwest u.s. but Idk if I'm just confusing it to where itll dig storms to Cuba and then correct itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Am I imagining things or does Euro have a tendency to not be on steroids during a certain time frame. I know the tendency to not eject s/w out of the southwest u.s. but Idk if I'm just confusing it to where itll dig storms to Cuba and then correct itself. I feel like it’s so hard to predict model bias sometimes. Every storm is unique and models are so dynamic that all storms are modeled slightly different. But a lot of boxes are checkEd on this threat. Great high latitude blocking, 50-50 low to hold HP in position. One issue with euro is moving 50/50 out of the way too quickly. Just need to see euro turn more neutral tilt with the s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 If Union County (NC) has a sharp cutoff like that, then you can pretty much take it to the bank--right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CustomWX Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 FWIW huge increase on the GEFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 FWIW huge increase on the GEFS LOCK IT INSent from my A577VL using Tapatalk 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Great seeing the GEFS support the OP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Truly, what an unorthodox system. I would beware of any modeled precipitation field given the convective feedback on any global model right now. I will be willing to bet the pressure field won't verify like this, no matter the setup. Chances are, the secondary low will not be near Bermuda. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Great seeing the GEFS support the OP! 12z EURO made a swing in the right direction... Now we wait for the EPS to come on board Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: 12z EURO made a swing in the right direction... Now we wait for the EPS to come on board Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Yep , time to lose sleep tracking the GFS tonight... lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Yep , time to lose sleep tracking the GFS tonight... lolAnd the EURO... Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 minute ago, ILMRoss said: Truly, what an unorthodox system. I would beware of any modeled precipitation field given the convective feedback on any global model right now. I will be willing to bet the pressure field won't verify like this, no matter the setup. Chances are, the secondary low will not be near Bermuda. Unorthodox is a correct term. Just the beginning of signals. But if atm any where near correct. There will be a strong upslope flow on the eastern side of the Apps. A strong east to NW flow back against the apps. From VA mountains to NC mountains potential see a huge snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Still learning here. What needs to happen with storm for it to be colder and get more of us in the game? Is this strictly track related or way more complicated than that? Wow said earlier Anyone north of ULL would be game on. Sorry for dumb questions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 11 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Truly, what an unorthodox system. I would beware of any modeled precipitation field given the convective feedback on any global model right now. I will be willing to bet the pressure field won't verify like this, no matter the setup. Chances are, the secondary low will not be near Bermuda. Track like that signals big snows for WNC/SVA. Any further east and you're going to start getting a good bit of the board excited. Long long way to go with this however good to see HP parked near Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Still learning here. What needs to happen with storm for it to be colder and get more of us in the game? Is this strictly track related or way more complicated than that? Wow said earlier Anyone north of ULL would be game on. Sorry for dumb questions Track, position, timing, where the HP sets up in the northeast to produce the CAD... there are a LOT of parts hereSent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, Grayman said: Still learning here. What needs to happen with storm for it to be colder and get more of us in the game? Is this strictly track related or way more complicated than that? Wow said earlier Anyone north of ULL would be game on. Sorry for dumb questions There are so many dynamics that come into play when you have all this energy floating around. I am merely an amateur myself, so I am sure someone could answer with more knowledge, but there are no dumb questions. That's why this board exists! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Track like that signals big snows for WNC/SVA. Any further east and you're going to start getting a good bit of the board excited. Long long way to go with this however good to see HP parked near Toronto. Bit further east we have a set up like the glory storms of the days of old (73, 89 early 2000s, etc.)Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Grayman said: Still learning here. What needs to happen with storm for it to be colder and get more of us in the game? Is this strictly track related or way more complicated than that? Wow said earlier Anyone north of ULL would be game on. Sorry for dumb questions Typically for a good SE snowstorm to happen You need a Texas low crossing the GOM up the EC. High pressure. To the north. But this system dropping in from the NW. Its weird. Typically when a system drops in from the NW it doesn't work out. Maybe a clipper But atm extremely weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, Grayman said: Still learning here. What needs to happen with storm for it to be colder and get more of us in the game? Is this strictly track related or way more complicated than that? Wow said earlier Anyone north of ULL would be game on. Sorry for dumb questions Imho I think you asked great questions. Limited knowledge thinking would have me tell you root for a stronger high and the block to not be transient in eastern Canada and to hold. Stronger the LP colder the high better results in my opinion. Want ridge to be a little taller out west. Lots to disseminate as the PAC NW just chucks these shortwaves out. Other issue is in some instances we have sparse data up in Canada to where as these ripples come through H5 may take some swings for better or worse. Encouraging the euro finally is wanting to have a similar idea the GFS has been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Bit further east we have a set up like the glory storms of the days of old (73, 89 early 2000s, etc.) Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk It's great to see the GFS be consistent with some type of storm for a while now... would love for the EURO to hop on board and display some fireworks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Just now, BornAgain13 said: It's great to see the GFS be consistent with some type of storm for a while now... would love for the EURO to hop on board and display some fireworks... Euro is literally a tick away imo from showing something much bigger and this has been showcased by some on here and mid Atlantic. It's starting to sniff out something that resembles what the GFS and GEFS have been showcasing run after run without a hiccup. Maybe the upgrade has done wonders. Would love to know verification scores since the upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Bit further east we have a set up like the glory storms of the days of old (73, 89 early 2000s, etc.) Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk That's my thought too. With the evolution of h5 as being shown atm. Favors a strong Se to NW. Backing against the apps. A eastern upslope snow storm. If signals continue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Thanks guys for all the info . I’ll keep watching and learning ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gearhead302 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 40 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: LOCK IT IN Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk You do realize that out of 20 members that 3..... only 3. Gave you any snow right? And of those 3..... most people would view 2 of them as throw away runs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 12 out of 20 plus the control for MBY. Definitely has piqued my interest. Really hope to see the EPS start playing along. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 That's my thought too. With the evolution of h5 as being shown atm. Favors a strong Se to NW. Backing against the apps. A eastern upslope snow storm. If signals continue. Good catch . That would be awesome!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 You do realize that out of 20 members that 3..... only 3. Gave you any snow right? And of those 3..... most people would view 2 of them as throw away runs. Who cares? I want SOMEBODY here to see a white Christmas dang it, seems the Carolinas are always "no snow for you" land this time of the month Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Who cares? I want SOMEBODY here to see a white Christmas dang it, seems the Carolinas are always "no snow for you" land this time of the month Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Well, that's because climatology speaking, odds are against us. White Christmas's are a rarity here. I would love it too, but you have to be realistic. Following one specific run will cause great disappointment, in most cases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 35 minutes ago, FLweather said: That's my thought too. With the evolution of h5 as being shown atm. Favors a strong Se to NW. Backing against the apps. A eastern upslope snow storm. If signals continue. Almost like a tropical system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Wouldn’t a super strong low bring in warm upper level temps, lead to sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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