cbmclean Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: How hostile... Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Exactly the opposite of what we want. BobChill posted this image in the MA thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 55 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro is a legit torch towards the end. CMC/GFS would be the same if the phantom storm wasn't there. If it's going to happen then lets just get it out of the way sooner rather than later. Another post from Bob Chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Exactly the opposite of what we want. BobChill posted this image in the MA thread. Of all the flies in the ointment to have... The -PNA is the one that is the biggest slap in the face....Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: Of all the flies in the ointment to have... The -PNA is the one that is the biggest slap in the face.... Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk -PNA and +EPO. Not so much a fly in the ointment as a buzzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 -PNA and +EPO. Not so much a fly in the ointment as a buzzard."Int. 0z"Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: "Int. 0z" Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Yes, he posted it earlier today, but the situation has not improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Well guys , the GFS was giving some hope but the whole time the GFS gave hope , the EURO said take a hike... maybe we can get something towards the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 The key idea of us moving to a cooler pattern was for the bulk of the closed low (or lobe of the Tropospheric Polar Vortex) over central Canada moving into southeast Canada. With the bulk of it instead moving to Alaska, we are left with a developing, mild, west to east zonal pattern. BUT, over the past few weeks, each time the models move toward a mild look in the medium and long range, they flip and move back toward a cooler look, and vice versa. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 41 minutes ago, griteater said: The key idea of us moving to a cooler pattern was for the bulk of the closed low (or lobe of the Tropospheric Polar Vortex) over central Canada moving into southeast Canada. With the bulk of it instead moving to Alaska, we are left with a developing, mild, west to east zonal pattern. BUT, over the past few weeks, each time the models move toward a mild look in the medium and long range, they flip and move back toward a cooler look, and vice versa. Yep, that last part there is an especially good point. I would be surprised if we torch for any length of time. Doesn't mean I can't be wrong, but things are acting very Ninoish right now. Lots of activity, lots of energy, lots of changes. The background seems to want to be cooler than recent winters, though. I feel like the intangibles are on our side this year. I think they will help as the Pacific improves. And...I think they will help the Pacific improve/not become dreadful. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 This run looks a lot more like the 6z than the 12z GFS out to 12z Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Still not enough cold air though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Well, the CPC certainly doesn't offer much hope in regards to an active pattern for the next 7-14 days. Below average precip for the whole Eastern Seaboard. Our chances for winter weather are quickly making that inevitable cliff jump that we seem to make every couple of days...Hopefully the New Year will offer some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 3 hours ago, cbmclean said: Yes, he posted it earlier today, but the situation has not improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 No need to freak out. It’s mid-December. It’s fairly rare most of us get snow until January. Now if we’re still sitting here like this when the calendar is near to flipping to February, it’s time to start panicking, although even that’s technically not too late. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 FWIW, 18Z GEFSSent from my A577VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 50 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: I love that movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Wtf doom and gloom. I’m enjoying a cool December. As was said above I’m looking at 6-7 weeks January - mid Feb. if there are no storm chances in that window that’s when I’ll close the door on winter down here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Very fluid patterns right now folks. Let's watch this over the next 10 days or so. Have a seat. Not reason to run for the exits at all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 With such an active STJ moisture will not be the problem (it usually isn't). But, despite the general coolness so far, there hasn't been any semblance of cold, outside of the November front, and we'll, that was November. If we can't get any real cold to come down, the "below normal" temps and generous moisture won't deliver anymore snow than we've seen so far, just more of the same. We'll see what happens with the MJO heading to more favorable phases and go on hoping the NOA actually goes in the red for a bit, but somehow we'll have to see some cold if we we want frozen. It just hasnt been there yet, but lots of time to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 So much for a normal December! The torch is coming, most will end up +2-3 of normal, and zero chances for frozen. There is nothing at all positive about the next 10-15 days and the great blocking pattern, has went into the crapper! Maybe January will be our month? Sound familiar?? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 0z Euro was close with a southern slider but the high slides off too quickly. Still, the players are there. Good to see the Ontario/Quebec ridge which is a feature seen in most significant winter storms for our area. That keeps the dreaded great lakes low away. Just need to see the southern low closer to the TN valley at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 GFS trying to real us back in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 GFS hammers southern VA and northern NC this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Yes, the GFS is closer to the ideal setup with the S Canadian ridge over the southern low. Want to see the low placed a little more SE... but that ridge is really good to see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Just now, Wow said: Yes, the GFS is closer to the ideal setup with the S Canadian ridge over the southern low. Want to see the low placed a little more SE... Do you think this will be a trend? Hope so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Taken verbatim, the 12z GFS would be epic for Southern VA and Central NC. Intense deformation band with 25-35 mph surface winds, with higher gusts. If only the Euro or CMC would jump on board. Until then I’m not buying it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 A 1045 HP is stout if it's not transient 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 To the pessimists: The GFS is an outlier. Temperatures are barely marginal. About 6 things need to go right for this scenario to come into fruition. Good luck accurately predicting how the vorticity will contort itself as it journeys over the rocky mountains. To the optimists: There is definitely a future on the table that includes this trough getting its act together and becoming a sharp trough or even an ULL. The GFS shows this scenario would unleash full chaos mode with a wild coast storm and potential for snow even with marginal temperatures. Yeah, a major coastal storm with patches of heavy snow in select lucky areas is an irresponsible forecast. But this is still worth keeping an eye on. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Wow said: Yes, the GFS is closer to the ideal setup with the S Canadian ridge over the southern low. Want to see the low placed a little more SE... but that ridge is really good to see. I'll start a gofundme to buy that low pressure a ticket to New Orleans! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 12z Euro has the players there again but doesn't get the job done bringing down the cold air, pulling the HP out too quickly and throwing in a low over the GL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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