mackerel_sky Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, jjwxman said: The 00z NAM serves up a Foothills special. If icing is to occur, west of I-77 seems the most plausible outcome. Trends on BAM seem to be more ice into S.C. and NE GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Trends on BAM seem to be more ice into S.C. and NE GA If the CAD can lock down, it would make sense because the precipitation would arrive earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 0z GFS dewpoints look cooler by a few degrees in CAD areas compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, JoshM said: 0z GFS dewpoints look cooler by a few degrees in CAD areas compared to 18z GFS is a fail! 95% rain for everyone! The NAM and CMC will save us! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 0z Canadian a little lower on QPF, but temps pretty much the same as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 0Z CMC still very ICY , but definitely more realistic with totals this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Hug the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherzim Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 What's the nam saying Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 0z euro looks interesting for middle of next week. Better setup to hold cad high in place over northeast. Big signal from ensembles for moisture laden storm as well. Verbatim it’s a mid Atlantic storm but it’s close enough to pay attention to. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, Weatherzim said: What's the nam saying Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Only out to hr 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Hug the NAM Hug the Canadian lolll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 I think we all know how this will probably play out, 35-36 and rain, warming up pretty quick as the day wears on... these events are fun to track and watch model runs but we all know how it usually works out in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 46 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Hug the NAM Mack you win man. Nam caving in my opinion. Brief onset in places but even up here 3 to maybe 6 hours of freezing rain and then transition. HP just getting booted way too fast. Next week def looks interesting but then again that always happens and then as we get closer some dumb northern great lakes low or something impedes and squashes our chances. Good to see consistency between the GFS and Euro at this stage. Sometimes big signals are a tell tale sign of things to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 hour ago, HKY18 said: 0z euro looks interesting for middle of next week. Better setup to hold cad high in place over northeast. Big signal from ensembles for moisture laden storm as well. Verbatim it’s a mid Atlantic storm but it’s close enough to pay attention to. First thing that stuck out to me. Massive trend southward with that system over the last 3-4 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: First thing that stuck out to me. Massive trend southward with that system over the last 3-4 runs. I agree @SnowDawg. For reference here's Monday's 00z run and Tuesday's 00z run of the Euro for the same time frame. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 A1040/41 high can’t get it done, not sure a 1033 could get it done. Like many have said, need the blocking to slow the flow, so we don’t have to rely on impeccable timing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 The 12z GFS is cooking up something massive for Christmas week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Next week is looking very interesting, rain or snow who knows but the pattern right now is fun. Southern stream is super active, just a matter of time before something big happens this winter I think. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 12z GFS major storm in fantasy land. Weenie run 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 10 minutes ago, Grayman said: 12z GFS major storm in fantasy land. Weenie run Yes it is... it ends up being a Apps runner but not before over 2" of QPF fall as something frozen over the CAD areas. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 It is another ice scenario. Not really what we are looking for. As said above, an Apps runner. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 2 hours ago, weatherlover said: I think we all know how this will probably play out, 35-36 and rain, warming up pretty quick as the day wears on... these events are fun to track and watch model runs but we all know how it usually works out in the end I agree. This doesn't look like a big deal for anyone. What looked like a bigger deal last week, of course became nothing. I like our upcoming pattern, but I still feel like there are still way too many opportunities for many misses. I hope we can all score something at least once! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, eyewall said: It is another ice scenario. Not really what we are looking for. As said above, an Apps runner. Need west based NAO block for Miller A. Not been the trend of this decade, but maybe with solar/QBO help we get a block sometime this winter. Moisture has not been an issue last few years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Haha, why is this output method allowed to exist?? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, jjwxman said: Haha, why is this output method allowed to exist?? Enables Facebook forecasting? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 minute ago, frazdaddy said: Enables Facebook forecasting? Yea... This image is worth a few new subscriptions and at least 500 new likes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 I think there's a definite shot at seeing some sleet/snow mix in with the end of the precip from Durham west on 40 tomorrow morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Back to the 19th century...Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 27 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Back to the 19th century... Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Schools would be closed for a year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said: Back to the 19th century... Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Those are temperatures, and a rare example of Warm Air Damming. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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