mackerel_sky Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said: FZRA is a self-limited process anyway, so those extreme amounts are not to be taken literally.. However, the signal is something to watch for. Doesn't take much FZRA to be a big problem. The Dec 2002 event, self limited about 1/4 of all pine trees in GSP area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 54 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I would agree with you there. Salem looks to be one area I'd flag as still having the potential for a significant event here. Just because it may be more localized and fewer posters on this forum will see much of anything, it does not mean some areas could receive a significant storm. I'm in a similar situation as y'all. I'm in Dry Fork, VA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 2 hours ago, Buddy1987 said: Appreciate your input. My concern is I'm in a rock and a hard place because I could qualify per say for both SE forum and Mid Atlantic with my geography. A lot of times more of the concern in this sub forum is for Raleigh/Charlotte and I-40 and south. Dewpoints up my way are single numbers to low teens signaling this could be more than a nuisance or minor as you cross the NC/VA border with potential for prolonged icing. Speaking more for southern VA here... The is a very dense arctic airmass that is moving across the northern parts of the CONUS. This airmass will obviously moderate some, but it will still be very dry and will be hard to scour out once the precipitation begins to fall into it. I've seen some of the best CAD favored areas hang onto below freezing temperatures for an entire duration of an event even with a retreating high. While yes, ZR is self-limiting and the high is transient, these mountain valleys are incredibly hard to "warm" once the low-level cold is locked in with precip falling. The lighter precipitation at the start with temps in the mid-20s is very much a concern. 6-8hrs of that and you have a mess. Like usual, I'd be most concerned about the Blue Ridge and areas just to the east. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 18z nam looks pretty cold at hr 84 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 hour ago, Disc said: Speaking more for southern VA here... The is a very dense arctic airmass that is moving across the northern parts of the CONUS. This airmass will obviously moderate some, but it will still be very dry and will be hard to scour out once the precipitation begins to fall into it. I've seen some of the best CAD favored areas hang onto below freezing temperatures for an entire duration of an event even with a retreating high. While yes, ZR is self-limiting and the high is transient, these mountain valleys are incredibly hard to "warm" once the low-level cold is locked in with precip falling. The lighter precipitation at the start with temps in the mid-20s is very much a concern. 6-8hrs of that and you have a mess. Like usual, I'd be most concerned about the Blue Ridge and areas just to the east. Only concern I have and that directly revolves around the fact of whether or not someone actually enjoys ice storms is the placement of the HP and where it is parked. If you're looking for optimal placement you'd like to see Schoharie Valley/Upstate NY for optimal funneling out of the St Lawrence Valley. In contrast NAM has it placed in eastern NY and CT sliding toward SE CT and RI. Although it's not in "optimal position" a 1043 is plenty a strong to supply what is needed before we all warm up. As you alluded to the dense nature of it spells trouble to me as you see 2m temps in SW VA around 10 degrees or so and even low 20s into SW NC mountains. I've been through plenty of these when I lived in CT therefore anytime the models start to show a continued theme of low level cold air being pumped into the area one should take notice. A high that strong can and does over perform to lock in that air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 hour ago, Disc said: Speaking more for southern VA here... The is a very dense arctic airmass that is moving across the northern parts of the CONUS. This airmass will obviously moderate some, but it will still be very dry and will be hard to scour out once the precipitation begins to fall into it. I've seen some of the best CAD favored areas hang onto below freezing temperatures for an entire duration of an event even with a retreating high. While yes, ZR is self-limiting and the high is transient, these mountain valleys are incredibly hard to "warm" once the low-level cold is locked in with precip falling. The lighter precipitation at the start with temps in the mid-20s is very much a concern. 6-8hrs of that and you have a mess. Like usual, I'd be most concerned about the Blue Ridge and areas just to the east. This is all well-stated Disc. Here is the latest NAM at 925mb showing the wedged in cold banking up against the Blue Ridge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 You've heard of retrograding Greenland blocks that slow the flow down and send everything south...well, here we have a closed low that retrogrades west across northern Greenland, and there appears to be a bit of a fujiwhara effect where our trough over E Canada that is supplying the cold air with the surface high behind it is whip lashed forward into the North Atlantic amidst a super high +NAO regime. Any wintry weather in this split-flow setup comes down to impeccable timing (about as good a timing as you can have if it were to work out) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 The NAM has not been as quick to move the HP out like the GFS. At hour 84 the NAM has the HP centered over Mass. while the GFS has the HP already over Nova Scotia. I tend to agree with @griteater . If anyone gets anything frozen it will be the result of impeccable timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 gfs did horrible with scouring today's wedge. Here is it's 72hr forecast versus reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 GFS is still 90% rain, for everybody! A non even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCGamecock Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 NAM much colder than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 25 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: GFS is still 90% rain, for everybody! A non even GFS is garbage with storms like this. I dont buy it for a second. Take it with a grain of salt. Its built more for medium to long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 24 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: GFS is garbage with storms like this. I dont buy it for a second. Take it with a grain of salt. Its built more for medium to long range I’d be willing to bet it closer to reality than the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 ok, so who's gonna open the thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 15 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I’d be willing to bet it closer to reality than the NAM! I'd be willing to be a non event. Too much against this atm for a frozen event. Cold rain yes. The pieces don't match the timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 26 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I’d be willing to bet it closer to reality than the NAM! I'll wager non event for you moderate event for me! Winner gets....??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 39 minutes ago, CaryWx said: ok, so who's gonna open the thread! Oh you shouldn’t have. I would love the honor. I bring mojo. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 hour ago, lilj4425 said: Oh you shouldn’t have. I would love the honor. I bring mojo. I was writing this weekend’s storm off as a non event but now that the blue turd has appeared I am heading out back to test my generator. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 2 hours ago, lilj4425 said: Oh you shouldn’t have. I would love the honor. I bring mojo. I say go for it for 0z runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Back on Saturday, Jonathan posted a plot of the NAO since August. I present it together with the AO. Nothing even remotely suspicious about the date of themost recent 0 crossing is there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 0z should be interesting, roll the footage!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 12 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: 0z should be interesting, roll the footage!! Looks like 0z Nam has the high hauling ass out of there compared to 18z. Pretty pronounced too whereas toward the latter portion of the run 0z has it nova Scotia while 18z still had it in southern new England. Waiting for 2m temps to catch up as the frames are still back at 57hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCGamecock Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Can someone explain to me with a little more knowledge how we end up with cooler 2m temps in southern va and a good chunk of west central NC with the high exiting stage right compared to 18z? Is there some sort of meso high that's not on the map I am missing allowing damming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Can someone explain to me with a little more knowledge how we end up with cooler 2m temps in southern va and a good chunk of west central NC with the high exiting stage right compared to 18z? Is there some sort of meso high that's not on the map I am missing allowing damming? In situ wedging. Precip evaporating forms kind of it’s own high pressure, locks in cold, with high already gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 15 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Looks like 0z Nam has the high hauling ass out of there compared to 18z. Pretty pronounced too whereas toward the latter portion of the run 0z has it nova Scotia while 18z still had it in southern new England. Waiting for 2m temps to catch up as the frames are still back at 57hrs Crushes upstate and NE Ga! Need Lookout! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just now, mackerel_sky said: In situ wedging. Precip evaporating forms kind of it’s own high pressure, locks in cold, with high already gone I get that but the 2m dews are a solid 6-7 degrees cooler up this way and a good several degrees cooler over western NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Probably not accurate, but the 18z CMC continued the theme of a Bad Ice Storm , Central NC , Southern VA , Central VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 The 00z NAM serves up a Foothills special. If icing is to occur, west of I-77 seems the most plausible outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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