JoshM Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 GFS caving to Euro Baby Steps 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 9 minutes ago, JoshM said: GFS caving to Euro Baby Steps It goes about it in a different way, but yeah, there’s potential here if we get a good cold dome to drop down. The GFS storm there is a follow on wave that drops into the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 Just now, griteater said: It goes about it in a different way, but yeah, there’s potential here if we get a good cold dome to drop down. The GFS storm there is a follow on wave that drops into the trough As long as we get there I don't mind if we take the scenic route or not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 Canadian has what looks like a significant ice storm next Friday (ice to rain but heavy precip on the front end). Then ending as some light snow maybe - big, slow moving storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 0Z GFS with a light to moderate snow for the 13th system , 0Z CMC has a Major ICE Storm... let's see what the 0Z EURO shows.... pattern is favorable, just need some good timing for this storm to occur. Plenty of time to watch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 6z GFS went all in Hour 222 has a 1050 Banana High 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 54 minutes ago, JoshM said: 6z GFS went all in Hour 222 has a 1050 Banana High Good! I need the rain, to help with my drought! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 If we get a couple of those massive highs to come down like the models are suggesting, and if they can hang on for a while without racing east, there will be a winter storm at some point. The STJ is active. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 Nice trend w/ the GFS... Confluent flow over the NE.. kicks the whole southern upper low out, though phases in a s/w from the polar jet that winds up the sfc low a bit too early and pulls the "primary" low into the TN valley but with the 50/50 low it spins off a coastal quickly as well. 0z Euro, however, dropped it this run. But this is 7-9 day range.. I like our chances. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 2 hours ago, JoshM said: 6z GFS went all in Hour 222 has a 1050 Banana High Who needs power anyway? I could see a changeover event, but to state the obvious, climo is against us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 27 minutes ago, Wow said: Nice trend w/ the GFS... Confluent flow over the NE.. kicks the whole southern upper low out, though phases in a s/w from the polar jet that winds up the sfc low a bit too early and pulls the "primary" low into the TN valley but with the 50/50 low it spins off a coastal quickly as well. 0z Euro, however, dropped it this run. But this is 7-9 day range.. I like our chances. Yes , absolutely... Hopefully the Euro will come back around today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 I don't want an ice event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, eyewall said: I don't want an ice event. Yeah especially what with temps based off of yesterday 12z Euro and today's 6z gfs. Low teen dewpoints with temps wet bulbing mid to upper 20s. Gonna be lights out along the transition line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 I hope the trends continue toward a no ice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 6 minutes ago, gman said: I hope the trends continue toward a no ice event. 95% chance it ends up a rain event, outside mountains and S of 40 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 33 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 95% chance it ends up a rain event, outside mountains and S of 40 I live 1/4 mile North of 40 in Eastern NC. Sweet! Bring on the snow! Thanks for the official forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 12 hours ago, LithiaWx said: Here is what she responded to. My opinion is Burns jumped the gun. He’s the chief meteorologist in a major city. He could wait for at least a little more smoke before saying there may be a fire. Ridiculous to post about getting prepared for an ice storm more than a week out in the South... Like what could you even do a week out for an ice storm??? On top of the likelihood nothing will happen. This comes across as clickbait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: Ridiculous to post about getting prepared for an ice storm more than a week out in the South... Like what could you even do a week out for an ice storm??? On top of the likelihood nothing will happen. This comes across as clickbait He did highlight COULD. Low percentage chance but it boosts ratings generally in the SE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 2 hours ago, olafminesaw said: Who needs power anyway? I could see a changeover event, but to state the obvious, climo is against us. Climo isn't necessarily against us. Some of our (Raleigh Area) most crippling ice storms have occurred in the first part of December. I would say climo would be against all-snow more than an ice event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: Climo isn't necessarily against us. Some of our (Raleigh Area) most crippling ice storms have occurred in the first part of December. I would say climo would be against all-snow more than an ice event Makes sense. Most of my life I lived in the DC area, and ice storms seemed pretty rare in December, compared to January/December. I guess CAD holds stronger in NC and it makes a difference this time of year to be further inland(but conversely the warm push aloft is stronger) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Makes sense. Most of my life I lived in the DC area, and ice storms seemed pretty rare in December, compared to January/December. I guess CAD holds stronger in NC and it makes a difference this time of year to be further inland(but conversely the warm push aloft is stronger) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Carolina_ice_storm_of_2002 Worst one of my life was occurring today, 17 years ago. Still remember the eerie noise of trees popping all over the neighborhood that morning. Had to cut our way out. Brutal cold followed it without power meaning many nights huddled up as a family by the fireplace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 Well 12z GFS isnt gonna be like the 6z at all. Not that it is surprising at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 12z GFS essentially says enjoy your FROPA. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 12z GFS is a rainstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 On the 12z GFS, the timing between the front bringing in the cold air and the follow up wave that kicks out and yields the storm was actually better this run. Problem is, the initial cold trough didn't press as much this run and it lifted out quickly, so it's warm with rain. Could be more chances coming down the line on the GFS run as it continues to be fairly cold out to hr249 12z UKMet at 144 isn't quite as quick to move out the initial cold trough as the GFS, though not a huge difference. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 13 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Carolina_ice_storm_of_2002 Worst one of my life was occurring today, 17 years ago. Still remember the eerie noise of trees popping all over the neighborhood that morning. Had to cut our way out. Brutal cold followed it without power meaning many nights huddled up as a family by the fireplace Man I remember that well. I was in college at UNCG. A magical event. I remember that winter overall was quite nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 And this is why we don't get take 10 days out too seriously on model runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 8 minutes ago, eyewall said: And this is why we don't get take 10 days out too seriously on model runs. The threat is certainly over with now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpbart Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 10 days out individual model runs do not matter much as the overall set up. According to all the posts I have seen, it is looking OK right now. Sit back, relax, drink a bourbon and just keep an eye on it. Excitement for me starts 5 days out, and confidence starts to build 3 days out, actual worry, joy, or call to action is at the less than 48 hours to go and much positivity across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: The threat is certainly over with now. I never said that but obviously it is highly variable still from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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