mackerel_sky Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 I think the CMC had some ridiculous ice totals for the Dec event!? It has a tendency to spit out apocalyptic ice totals! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Crankywxguy’s blog has some helpful info — essentially it’ll all come down to how the waves phase and progress.. the northern pacific is complex right now with multiple waves/interactions. May be best to wait a few days for the pieces to develop before going all-in one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I think the CMC had some ridiculous ice totals for the Dec event!? It has a tendency to spit out apocalyptic ice totals! True, and to be fair it has been running too cold on its surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 From NOAA's Weekly MJO Update 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 9 minutes ago, griteater said: From NOAA's Weekly MJO Update Sure hope the latter comes to fruition Grit. The CPC 14 day outlook sucks this afternoon, although the NAO does look to go negative at the end. Of course, the possibility of a winter storm in the southeast this weekend shows how quickly things can change around here! Now, if only the Tigers can make a good showing tonight I'll be happy with whatever happens over the next couple of weeks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 22 minutes ago, griteater said: From NOAA's Weekly MJO Update What a bummer if the convection goes across the COD and back to the Maritime Continent. Unless nino REALLY couples and takes over the pattern that would probably put the SE out of the game for the foreseeable future. Hopefully the EURO is wrong, as it has been for the last month or so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Nice write-up from NWS GSP. They acknowledge the potential but remain cautious. Quote Cold air in place at precip onset Friday night allows for some wintry weather potential. Soundings do indicate a warm nose, but oddly enough for most of our area it looks like even the warm nose is below freezing (well, for now anyway). Partial thicknesses and associated nomograms are trending cooler too, which does help simplify the forecast, but we are still at least 5 days out, so PLENTY of time for this to get far more complicated. GFS moves the bulk of the precip through Saturday into Saturday night, but ECMWF lingers the upper trough a little longer with the attendant moisture lingering into Sunday night across our area. Have continued rain/snow wording, not yet introducing any mixed p-types. For now, although confidence is increasing in a winter weather event, confidence is quite low on any amounts and most guidance remains on the lighter side (12z GEFS plumes have decreased with storm total snow amounts across the mountains vs. the 06z plumes, and generally below winter storm criteria for most of the area). Plenty of time to adjust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Looking at the Euro Ensemble Trends thru today's 12z run, the western U.S. ridging and the amplitude of our storm wave over the Mississippi Valley have increased (at least on its backside)...but the storm wave is trending more positive tilt - so the amplitude/tilt trade off is kind of a wash. If you increased the amplitude, but kept the wave more neutral tilt, you'd have a farther north/warmer solution (but you can see that the angle of the height lines thru North Carolina really hasn't changed). The cold air damming signal is increasing as well, as to be expected. It kind of looks like a central/northern mtns, foothills, NW Piedmont (and north) wintry event at the moment IMO, but plenty of time for it to change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Happy hour GFS coming in - 500mb suggests this isn't going to be as far north as last run 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Yeah GFS bumped south this run - puts more folks in NC in play for wintry precip this run compared to last Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 FIshel showed a graphic that gives central NC a 10% chance of >.25 wintry precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 18z GFS Actually gives MBY a solid 4-7" of snow before the change to ICE. A better run for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 New Euro Weeklies 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, griteater said: New Euro Weeklies I get the feeling once this colder eastern NA pattern arrives, it is going to want to really crank and stay for a while. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 14 minutes ago, griteater said: Yeah GFS bumped south this run - puts more folks in NC in play for wintry precip this run compared to last Lol, not sure I'm reading this right but it looks like north of the Iredell/Meck county line stays snow or very close to it. I have little faith in a system that moves that far north before transferring giving MBY much frozen, but I hope somebody in the 40 corridor gets slammed. I'd rather have a nice amped storm where some of us score rather than a weak sauce event with a bit of frozen. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForsythWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 12z vs 18z GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 18z GEFS really upped Snow means! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCentralWakeCo Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 33 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: e18 please! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Weekend storms are a real thing. Would love to see data on most common days of the week for MA/SE snow events. 6” plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 hour ago, SouthCentralWakeCo said: e18 please! Death, taxes, and someone claiming there favorite imby e__ 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 I have no idea what that mess was at halftime. Thought models where hard to understand. Time has passed me by. Clemson looking good. Gone be flakes flying at the ticker tate parade. Take pics Mack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 High Point's WGHP's Van Denton posted his GFS model view 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 ICON looks like a strung out mess.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: ICON looks like a strung out mess.... South and strung out, is what most want to see on here, better chances at frozen! I’d rather see light sleet and snow, than a drenching 30s degree rain! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 0z GFS sucked for winter weather, outside the mountains and Wilkes county! MA forum is probably doing backflips now ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 0z GFS sucked for winter weather, outside the mountains and Wilkes county! MA forum is probably doing backflips now ! Considering the Low was in Tennessee on the GFS earlier, I wouldn't worry too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 0z GFS sucked for winter weather, outside the mountains and Wilkes county! MA forum is probably doing backflips now ! Looked good for Asheville, Marion, Morganton, Hickory, Wilkesboro, Winston, and other points north and west.Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 5 hours ago, BornAgain13 said: Damn that e18.... Just... Wow... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Ukie stays south and weaker than american guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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