Iceagewhereartthou Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Yay for N.C. snow! They never get any! watch the NW trend, DC jackpots Lol. Complete clown that will never happen. Still, the models really pick up on that lee side snow shield. Draw a line from NO to MYB and you can really see the effect of the apps on our region. Cold has to be there first or forget it. I 40 looks nice though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 06z GFS continues to have a good storm... a little further north this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Area Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC335 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2019LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...As of 315 AM Wed: Net troughing will continue across the Eastthrough the end of the period Tuesday night. The feature ofinterest remains another strong Arctic front, which is depicted aslikely arriving in our area Monday night. The already nearly zonalflow preceding the front and attendant shortwave, coupled withthe position of the high, means little chance for good moisturereturn ahead of the front. Thus it is not expected to bring muchin the way of precipitation; the ECMWF and GDPS, combined withall the GEFS members, support another "clean"/"straightforward"fropa. The GFS has become an outlier, depicting a deeper and slowerupper trough behind the front, and development of a coastal wavealong it. This would point to a winter storm of some degree in themiddle of next week. The GDPS does lag the ECMWF a bit, however,which warrants a slow decline in PoPs--but precip type trends arekept in line with the non-GFS solutions. Temps Tue and Tue nightgenerally will be even colder than those Saturday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 7 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Yay for N.C. snow! They never get any! watch the NW trend, DC jackpots lw 7 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Yay for N.C. snow! They never get any! watch the NW trend, DC jackpots Except when we received 15 inches in an early December storm last year. Apologetic my Sarcasm Detector failed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 This would be ugly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Go ahead and classify this, whatever it is, as the first winter test of the new GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 30 minutes ago, Solak said: This would be ugly... How many ice storms have there been in this region in November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 It is hard to believe that we will get as cold as the models are hinting at next week. Lows below 20? That would be a pretty amazing feat for mid-November. I bet we'll see some moderation in that forecast over the next few days. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Great to see everyone in here still. Been awhile for me posting but the next couple days should be interesting with some of the ensembles and the first true test of the new GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Early November and we are acting like rookies instead of the seasoned veterans we are. C'mon team, don't let Lucy yank that ball away again. Walk away with your heads held high. Don't be Charlie Brown and look over your shoulder to see her little smiley GFS loving self sitting there holding the ball. It's November for Pete's sake....now act like it!! So how far is that field goal Charlie Brown? 3 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Look for a mild December. Just hope it breaks back cold after that. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 What's everybody's take. You rather have a front loaded winter and take your chances on the back end or have a crappy warm pattern front end and loaded back end? For me I'd rather take front and roll the dice on back end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Impressive Cold Outbreak for November seems to be gaining momentum in modeling over the past 48 hours of runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 19 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: What's everybody's take. You rather have a front loaded winter and take your chances on the back end or have a crappy warm pattern front end and loaded back end? For me I'd rather take front and roll the dice on back end. I'll take snow any way we can get it. November or April. December is my favorite month for winter weather due to the winter solstice and lowest sun angle allowing accumulations to last. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 As a hunter, I’m all for front end cold since it just makes it much more enjoyable. By mid-February I’ve got fishing and golf on the mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: It is hard to believe that we will get as cold as the models are hinting at next week. Lows below 20? That would be a pretty amazing feat for mid-November. I bet we'll see some moderation in that forecast over the next few days. I think there will be some moderation seen on the model runs, but I believe this cold shot is the real thing. Cold and dry.....yay BTW......don’t drink whatever the gfs has been gifting to winter weenies everywhere. It will only break your heart 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted November 6, 2019 Author Share Posted November 6, 2019 1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said: Early November and we are acting like rookies instead of the seasoned veterans we are. C'mon team, don't let Lucy yank that ball away again. Walk away with your heads held high. Don't be Charlie Brown and look over your shoulder to see her little smiley GFS loving self sitting there holding the ball. It's November for Pete's sake....now act like it!! So how far is that field goal Charlie Brown? What are we? A bunch of Johnny Come Late-lies?? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 I’m not the smartest peanut in the turd, but how would any moisture be possible with that hp and temps? Might be cold but I don’t see anything in the form of frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said: What's everybody's take. You rather have a front loaded winter and take your chances on the back end or have a crappy warm pattern front end and loaded back end? For me I'd rather take front and roll the dice on back end. The sun angle is better this time of year. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 1 minute ago, superjames1992 said: The sun angle is better this time of year. Haha. And the best chance we have for cold! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 I’m not the smartest peanut in the turd, but how would any moisture be possible with that hp and temps? Might be cold but I don’t see anything in the form of frozen precip.Big, strong high pressures are usually coupled with strong upper features and disturbances. Strong high pressures are only possible with a ton of sinking air throughout the atmosphere... many different processes (jet exit/entrance regions, vorticity, warm air/cold air advection) work together to create this monster highs. On the flip side, with such strong jets/troughs creating the high on one side, the other side (eastern side) will feature rising air and different types of advection to provide moisture in the region. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 12z - the cold is 12 degrees warmer (35), and it's all rain (0.58") for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 So....how much for Moncure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Euro has a stronger HP at 114 compared to the GFS by a couple of notches, and slightly southern. Drier also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Hour 126. Stronger HP on Euro, MUCH wetter. more comparable to the GFS than the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 138, honestly on the surface the Euro for this run mimics the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 2 hours ago, Solak said: 12z - the cold is 12 degrees warmer (35), and it's all rain (0.58") for RDU. Winter cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 6 hours ago, Buddy1987 said: What's everybody's take. You rather have a front loaded winter and take your chances on the back end or have a crappy warm pattern front end and loaded back end? For me I'd rather take front and roll the dice on back end. 100% agree. Take it and run. All day long! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 50 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Bless God! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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