mackerel_sky Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Euro seems interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jessy89 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Euro seems interesting!Snowing where?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 10 minutes ago, Jessy89 said: Snowing where? . The favored areas: Hickory/GSO/Roxboro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 RAH: Thursday through Saturday: Models are starting to come into better agreement with the late week system. Timing and magnitude differences with the passage of a northern stream trough and the next Arctic front into the Eastern US has lessen with the latest 12z/03 model runs, with the GFS trending towards the slower ECMWF/CMC solution(well known GFS cold bias). However, model spread remains high with the eastward evolution of a southern stream impulse crossing the SE US Thursday night through Friday. Stronger/slower model solutions, like the GFS, develop an area of low pressure along the trailing end of the aforementioned Arctic front as these features intersect over the SE US, resulting in the development of a widespread significant rainfall event(1 to 2 inches) across the Carolinas. The probability of seeing any p-type other than rain eastern of the NC mountains is extremely low with no creditable threat for snow at this time. Have raised PoPs to high chance for Thursday night and into Friday with a cold and wet day expected on Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 I'm not buying frozen precip threat until we get some more credibility from ensembles. It'd be a major climatology-buster outside mountains, otherwise... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobNC Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 we’re on a climo-busting roll this year, with the hottest day of the year being in October. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 With this technically being the first Winter for the new GFS... I’m anticipating whiplash all season long. Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 2 hours ago, JacobNC said: we’re on a climo-busting roll this year, with the hottest day of the year being in October. Yeah, but these days, we tend to bust climo the other way. I'd be happy to just have a cool crisp November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Sooo close to something good for a lot of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Euro gives most of NC a little love. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 4 hours ago, JoshM said: Euro gives most of NC a little love. This is a different storm than the GFS has been hinting at. That is a week out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 5 hours ago, JoshM said: Euro gives most of NC a little love. South Carolina Midlands too, bust the CAE Snow Shield... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 5 hours ago, JoshM said: Euro gives most of NC a little love. Who else loves snow maps in early November? Doubt it'll happen but let our tracking season (letdown season) begin! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Our best snow chances tend to happen with deep cold air mass ahead of it. I don't like the cold-chasing moisture events like models are hinting... they don't pan out often. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jessy89 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Most events in November not realistic anyway.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Usually, snow in November leads to a warmer winter...... if history is an indicator. TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 GFS (for Raleigh) has gone from 1.6" liquid (18z 11/3) to 0.025" (12z 11/4) for the upcoming 7 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 23 hours ago, Solak said: RAH: Thursday through Saturday: Models are starting to come into better agreement with the late week system. Timing and magnitude differences with the passage of a northern stream trough and the next Arctic front into the Eastern US has lessen with the latest 12z/03 model runs, with the GFS trending towards the slower ECMWF/CMC solution(well known GFS cold bias). However, model spread remains high with the eastward evolution of a southern stream impulse crossing the SE US Thursday night through Friday. Stronger/slower model solutions, like the GFS, develop an area of low pressure along the trailing end of the aforementioned Arctic front as these features intersect over the SE US, resulting in the development of a widespread significant rainfall event(1 to 2 inches) across the Carolinas. The probability of seeing any p-type other than rain eastern of the NC mountains is extremely low with no creditable threat for snow at this time. Have raised PoPs to high chance for Thursday night and into Friday with a cold and wet day expected on Friday. The 1-2 inches widespread significant rainfall mentioned above is now... While the cold front may lack widespread precipitation with it, it will not lack for cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWxGuy Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 15 hours ago, TheWxGuy said: Great site. Wondering how they managed to leave North Carolina (Raleigh or Charlotte) off their "local" options when they have Nashville, TN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 GFS looks DRYYYY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 10 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: GFS looks DRYYYY Right back to the drought. Time to fire up the sprinklers. Grass growing season extended for another 8-10 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Looking like we could have at least day with highs in the 30s next week. January cold for Vets Day! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Lots of folks up here in the mtns. talking about some snow Thursday/Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 0z GFS coming in with a Snowstorm for the South next week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 0z GFS coming in with a Snowstorm for the South next week.. Euro was hinting at that a day or two ago. Looks like another cold chasing moisture. One things for sure, the cold hammer will drop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 I can't disappoint the weenies... clown map below 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jessy89 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Will it snow probably not outside the mountains. But this is similar setups we like to see December through February.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 18 minutes ago, JoshM said: I can't disappoint the weenies... clown map below Yay for N.C. snow! They never get any! watch the NW trend, DC jackpots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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