mackerel_sky Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 21 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Yeah, something about the dominant large scale pattern has led to this for an extended period of time, going on years. Others on here can better speak to it, but it's obvious and there's no sign of change. I keep holding out hope it would change or flip to a western ridge pattern for awhile but this may indeed be the new normal. It can’t last through the next 6 months, that’s not possible, like having a + NAO for the 3 months of winter, correct?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 We do get a break this week. from RAH: .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 AM Monday... Much cooler and drier Wednesday through Friday, followed by a gradual warming trend over the weekend. High pressure is expected to extend into NC/SC from the north Wednesday through Friday. It will be much cooler and drier with very noticeable drops in both temperature and humidity expected. Sunny days and clear nights are forecast Wed-Fri, lows in the 50s. Highs in the mid 70s to around 80. The normally cool spots over the Piedmont will have some mid-upper 40s. The ridge aloft will build back into the region from the west over the weekend. This will allow the surface high to remain nearly stationary over our region Sat-Sun. A gradual warming trend will begin Saturday with highs in the 80s, after lows in the mid 50s to near 60. Highs Sunday should reach the upper 80s to around 90 with dry weather to continue. && **Those cooler spots are places like Sanford and Roxboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 I will take this.....and even after a warm up there looks to be a chance at another cooler period later this month....its not crazy to see 90's in Oct here unfortunately but overall this pattern is not bad for Sept ( at least in NC ) Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Northeast wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 59. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 76. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. Friday Sunny, with a high near 78. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 58. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 Yeah some nice wx late this week, but it looks like it goes right back to the furnace. I'm going to have to move, this May to Oct summer is getting to be too much for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 Being from NY, i am enjoying the extended summer. I always felt (living up there) that summers were way too short. With that said, I am not enjoying this dry spell. 20th day in a row with no rain IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 21 minutes ago, Fantom X said: Being from NY, i am enjoying the extended summer. I always felt (living up there) that summers were way too short. With that said, I am not enjoying this dry spell. 20th day in a row with no rain IMBY Fall is normally beautiful here. If we're lucky we can get 4-6 weeks of open window weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 One word sums up the upcoming and recent weather pattern quite nicely: Dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 42 minutes ago, Fantom X said: Being from NY, i am enjoying the extended summer. I always felt (living up there) that summers were way too short. With that said, I am not enjoying this dry spell. 20th day in a row with no rain IMBY I'd love to think summers were too short! It really is amazing that going north just 500 miles can be the difference between endless winters and endless summers. Crazy to think such a short distance makes that much difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 I'd say we've earned this upcoming cool air damming episode after this summer's beating 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 Rainfall percent of mean over the past month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 Rainfall doesn't look to improve anytime soon. From the afternoon AFD from Raleigh... Other than a stray shower pre-dawn Wednesday across the western zones, precipitation chances will remain near zero through the period with high pressure jockeying into place overhead. The next chance of appreciable rainfall holds off until early to middle of next week thanks to the approach of a cold front from the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, griteater said: Rainfall percent of mean over the past month I'm surprised we're even that close to average in central NC. We did receive 1.5" from the hurricane but that feels like a century ago. Coupled with the high heat, we're in mid-summer form in terms of the yard browning out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 GFS continues to show second cool off after 25th, but now it's very brief and builds the heat right back in through the beginning of Oct. Big time trough out west with some bona fide cold coming but ridge in the East just won't go away for more than about 48 hours. Anyone know what the driving forces have been for the trough west/ ridge east that has been almost the exclusive pattern the past couple years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 56 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: GFS continues to show second cool off after 25th, but now it's very brief and builds the heat right back in through the beginning of Oct. Big time trough out west with some bona fide cold coming but ridge in the East just won't go away for more than about 48 hours. Anyone know what the driving forces have been for the trough west/ ridge east that has been almost the exclusive pattern the past couple years? Really sounds like our last 2 winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 Our average high now is in the 70s. The insanity must stop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 The only good thing I can see (model wise) about the next couple weeks, is that the NW US and SW Canada start to truly cool down after day 10. This will be our source for October cold (..hopefully frost/freezes). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 29 minutes ago, FallsLake said: The only good thing I can see (model wise) about the next couple weeks, is that the NW US and SW Canada start to truly cool down after day 10. This will be our source for October cold (..hopefully frost/freezes). Until Jerry or one of his Caribbean cousins shows up and wrecks the party with 100% humidity and 85° temps well into Oct. We are not going to get off the hook easy this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 15 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Until Jerry or one of his Caribbean cousins shows up and wrecks the party with 100% humidity and 85° temps well into Oct. We are not going to get off the hook easy this year. I hear this every year and every year we blow it out of proportion (at least in my eyes). The SER was killer this time last year and yet for KAVL we're only averaging 1 degree above our mean for all of September last year. By the end of this week, I'll guarantee that it will be at or below our mean for September 2018. I get that each backyard is different but I also know every September in the South continues the dog days of summer to the point that we become weather weary. I agree with FallsLake above, eventually (sooner than later) it will give and this will all be an afterthought. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 ^^Yeah, I've seen it hot (90s) into early October (..like last year). I've also seen it get cool (no AC needed again) after the first week of September. The last two Septembers have been warm; and last October was warm into middle of the month, but then the dam broke and fall finally arrived: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 Having to have a CAD event just to get back down to average-ish for a few days is pretty annoying though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 1 hour ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: I hear this every year and every year we blow it out of proportion (at least in my eyes). The SER was killer this time last year and yet for KAVL we're only averaging 1 degree above our mean for all of September last year. By the end of this week, I'll guarantee that it will be at or below our mean for September 2018. I get that each backyard is different but I also know every September in the South continues the dog days of summer to the point that we become weather weary. I agree with FallsLake above, eventually (sooner than later) it will give and this will all be an afterthought. I understand what you're saying, but using last September, one of the warmest on record for many, is not a great benchmark. Plus averaging this September compared to last year doesn't tell the whole story. The highs this month have been way higher then the highs for September last year. The average highs in AVL this September have been nearly 5 degrees higher than last, resulting in 8 days it has reached 90 or higher through the first 17 days, compared to a monthly high of just 87 last year. The only reason the averages are closer to last year is bc the lows have been closer to normal, but most people are reacting to the highs. And this is just AVL. Yes, it will eventually cool off, but most of us hate bringing summer into October. Even if we go below the mean for last year, that will be little comfort for most. Regardless, looking forward to these next couple of days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 1 hour ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: I understand what you're saying, but using last September, one of the warmest on record for many, is not a great benchmark. Plus averaging this September compared to last year doesn't tell the whole story. The highs this month have been way higher then the highs for September last year. The average highs in AVL this September have been nearly 5 degrees higher than last, resulting in 8 days it has reached 90 or higher through the first 17 days, compared to a monthly high of just 87 last year. The only reason the averages are closer to last year is bc the lows have been closer to normal, but most people are reacting to the highs. And this is just AVL. Yes, it will eventually cool off, but most of us hate bringing summer into October. Even if we go below the mean for last year, that will be little comfort for most. Regardless, looking forward to these next couple of days! We're running nearly neck and neck with 1980 in terms of averages through September 17th, here at AVL. I get what you're saying but I've been around long enough to know this isn't out of the ordinary. I'm not saying that one is the rule or the exception, I am simply saying that I've been through it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 1 hour ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: We're running nearly neck and neck with 1980 in terms of averages through September 17th, here at AVL. I get what you're saying but I've been around long enough to know this isn't out of the ordinary. I'm not saying that one is the rule or the exception, I am simply saying that I've been through it before. Gotcha, yeah, don't remember 1980. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 Some numbers for the period of Sep 1 - Sep 17 Asheville: Avg Mean Temperature is 3rd hottest in 151 year record. Avg High Temperature is #1 hottest Greenville-Spartanburg: 2nd hottest in 136 year record Charlotte: 3rd hottest in 141 year record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 Forecast highs here for Friday have gone up from upper 70’s to low 80’s. Sounds about right for this summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 25 minutes ago, griteater said: Forecast highs here for Friday have gone up from upper 70’s to low 80’s. Sounds about right for this summer Wait till the Arctic blasts and highs in the 30s, turn into highs in the low 50s in January, that’s my favorite! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 1 hour ago, griteater said: Some numbers for the period of Sep 1 - Sep 17 Asheville: Avg Mean Temperature is 3rd hottest in 151 year record. Avg High Temperature is #1 hottest Greenville-Spartanburg: 2nd hottest in 136 year record Charlotte: 3rd hottest in 141 year record Good stuff. It's interesting to see so many sequential years for AVL. Especially 1925, '26' 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 5 hours ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: We're running nearly neck and neck with 1980 in terms of averages through September 17th, here at AVL. I get what you're saying but I've been around long enough to know this isn't out of the ordinary. I'm not saying that one is the rule or the exception, I am simply saying that I've been through it before. I well remember the July 1980 heatwave. It was miserable staying in a room with no air conditioning at the Green Park Inn in Blowing Rock with temperatures in the low 90s. The only respite from the heat was an excursion to the top of Grandfather Mountain where even there the temperature was around 80°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted September 18, 2019 Author Share Posted September 18, 2019 57 minutes ago, Eric said: I well remember the July 1980 heatwave. It was miserable staying in a room with no air conditioning at the Green Park Inn in Blowing Rock with temperatures in the low 90s. The only respite from the heat was an excursion to the top of Grandfather Mountain where even there the temperature was around 80°. Yeah that was a warm one. I remember some brutal JV football practices in August. Winter of 80/81 was one of my least favorite growing up in 70’s/80’s. From 76/77 thru 87/88 we had good winters with some good storms except one: 80/81. We had 1” of snow in January, a minor ice storm and sleet storm on April 1. That winter was a bad anomaly back then. Today that would be epic lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 3 hours ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: Good stuff. It's interesting to see so many sequential years for AVL. Especially 1925, '26' 27. Amazing how warm 1925 was; must have been awful in those pre-AC days looking forward to Fall relief and getting a face full of high summer. Also, amazing how soupy last year was at Asheville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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