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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
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Interesting temperature outlook:

NWSCPCVerified account @NWSCPC 1m1 minute ago

 
 

Late March and early April we anticipate increased odds of below-normal temperatures through much of the Great Plains and the Mississippi Valley, while most other parts of the U.S. are favored to be warmer than normal. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ 

D1KXAMwWwAAQEbz.png
D1KXA__X0AAmNe6.png
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6 hours ago, Solak said:

Interesting temperature outlook:

NWSCPCVerified account @NWSCPC 1m1 minute ago

 
 

Late March and early April we anticipate increased odds of below-normal temperatures through much of the Great Plains and the Mississippi Valley, while most other parts of the U.S. are favored to be warmer than normal. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ 

D1KXAMwWwAAQEbz.png
D1KXA__X0AAmNe6.png

Looks like the whole winter summed up in 2 maps! :(

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15 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

The models have been horrible all winter with temps and precip. Somebody in the Carolinas will score an inch or two next week, easily!

We are expected to get some heavy rainfall here in the SW mountains.  No surprise as we are continuing to run well above normal in precipitation this year alone. We are some 4 to 7 inches above normal already. 

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1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

We are expected to get some heavy rainfall here in the SW mountains.  No surprise as we are continuing to run well above normal in precipitation this year alone. We are some 4 to 7 inches above normal already. 

We're due for a hundred year flood if we continue the rain through the summer and get a tropical storm to roll throu.....yikes is all I'm guns say. Next week looks interesting for us mtn folk too. Winter's last gasp probley.

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1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

We are expected to get some heavy rainfall here in the SW mountains.  No surprise as we are continuing to run well above normal in precipitation this year alone. We are some 4 to 7 inches above normal already. 

As of yesterday; Asheville is 2.5" of rain ahead of last year which was the wettest on record.  I've heard old timers speak of dry spells with stuff called dust that comes from mud.

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2 hours ago, McDowell_Weather said:

We're due for a hundred year flood if we continue the rain through the summer and get a tropical storm to roll throu.....yikes is all I'm guns say. 

Hunnerd year flud?

We're heading straight for the Old Testament, gather the goats and load the boat if this keeps up.

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You know this season seemed to have so much promise.  We seemed to have all the right players in place.  Most of the experts predicted a rockin January, February and even March.  After sitting pretty during the first week in December, the season never seemed to get back on track.  We were told things would turn around in January.  Then we were told things would turn around in February.  Finally, we were told that March would be our month.

Mercifully, NC State ended the Clemson basketball season today!;)

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1 hour ago, SnowJoMoJo said:

image.png.c4786ada0045be422a168da368a73494.png

 

Now that would be funny....

it would likely be correct as its the day we are driving back to danville from melbourne fl. this ish happened last year as we pulled in from spring break to a winter weather advisory and school closed the next day lol

 

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The good news is, it's not a hopeless situation around ENSO and snowfall like it seems. The lack of El Nino-cold and true +PNA in recent Winter's, is not opposite of ENSO state. This is subsurface smoothed average data since 1979: 

enso.png

Notice that although 15-16 was a strong El Nino, and there have been 3 El Nino winter's in the last 6 years, the long term average right now is barely positive. I have determined in research that ENSO subsurface is better correlated with the pattern than the surface. Maybe when the subsurface gets more positive there will true patterns of trough and storminess (09-10 was better than 15-16, and so was 91-95, etc). 

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