Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

[ryan1234]

17 minutes ago, McDowell_Weather said:

Depends on your area too this has NW of 85 written all over it as usual. Even the 850s on the cmc if that were the outcome are very marginal. 

 

I swear, if this yet another I-85 and N storm, I am going to personally demolish the entire interstate and move it 50 miles south. Yes, it would be easier to move, but I am tired of that being the case with literally Every. Single. Storm. 

[McDowell_Weather]

4 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

 

I swear, if this yet another I-85 and N storm, I am going to personally demolish the entire interstate and move it 50 miles south. Yes, it would be easier to move, but I am tired of that being the case with literally Every. Single. Storm. 

It's crazy watching the transition line during a storm how it litterly follows 85. Don't feel bad I've watched a many NW flow snow to my north by 15 miles on the out looking in. Sunny and 50 at my house while areas above 3000ft get slammed so damn close you can smell it. 

[Tar Heel Snow]

7 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

 

I swear, if this yet another I-85 and N storm, I am going to personally demolish the entire interstate and move it 50 miles south. Yes, it would be easier to move, but I am tired of that being the case with literally Every. Single. Storm. 

Or at least just straighten it out, that’d cut plenty of time off the Raleigh to Charlotte drive!

Anyway, it seems like right now, there’s still quite a few moving pieces but there’s certainly reason for cautious optimism and pessimism. Remember @Cold Rain’s “so what did we learn here?” thread

[ryan1234]

Just now, Tar Heel Snow said:

Or at least just straighten it out, that’d cut plenty of time off the Raleigh to Charlotte drive!

Anyway, it seems like right now, there’s still quite a bit of moving pieces, but there’s certainly reason for cautious optimism and pessimism. Remember @Cold Rain’s “so what did we learn here?” thread

Let's start a petition, I am sure we could at least gather a few hundred signatures.x

 

This is an interesting system, for sure though. If we can't score with the setup that is being depicted by some the guidance-- THIS TIME OF YEAR, then I give up! But in all seriousness, I am leaning more towards being a pessimist, it saves a lot of grief for later on. Lol.

[griteater]

1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

!!!!!!!

hr144

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58 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

HOW is THAT look unable to produce snow in late December?!?!?!?!?!?! It doesn't get more classic for a major in these parts, albeit better HP placement (and stronger) but that is pretty close to textbook. I'd continue to watch this for sure.

Cold air availability is sorely lacking...and winds with any kind of southerly component at the surface are a big no-no leading into a winter storm (SE winds in North Carolina in this case).

[franklin NCwx]

We need a strong/deeper upper low a little farther north. It's not too far off from what some of us need. Maybe its trends our way!

[Wow]

12z GEPS - Ensemble MSLP placements.. big change from 0z.  Want to see the low trend faster to start moving precip up while the HP is in optimal position.

[griteater]

16 minutes ago, griteater said:

Cold air availability is sorely lacking...and winds with any kind of southerly component at the surface are a big no-no leading into a winter storm (SE winds in North Carolina in this case).

Actually, the image on the right (^ above) is showing winds out of the SE at 850mb which is fine (that image on the right shows 850mb temps and winds, with sfc high and low location).  The weak damming there has light NE winds at the surface...anyway, cold air is lacking, but not impossible for this to work if the timing improves...I'm not a fan though

[SCSteel]

What is the absolute best placement of a high pressure to our north in these scenarios to maximize cold air?

[BullCityWx]

50 minutes ago, griteater said:

Actually, the image on the right (^ above) is showing winds out of the SE at 850mb which is fine (that image on the right shows 850mb temps and winds, with sfc high and low location).  The weak damming there has light NE winds at the surface...anyway, cold air is lacking, but not impossible for this to work if the timing improves...I'm not a fan though

The amount of times we've seen snow with the 850 0º line all the way to Syracuse has to be in the single digits. I can buy errors in the low track for now but I dont know how we make the cold air magically appear. 

[BullCityWx]

1 minute ago, SCSteel said:

What is the absolute best placement of a high pressure to our north in these scenarios to maximize cold air?

In a perfect world, just about Gettysburg PA, maybe a bit north.

[Cold Rain]

1 hour ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

Or at least just straighten it out, that’d cut plenty of time off the Raleigh to Charlotte drive!

Anyway, it seems like right now, there’s still quite a few moving pieces but there’s certainly reason for cautious optimism and pessimism. Remember @Cold Rain’s “so what did we learn here?” thread

Boy, those were the days, huh?

This is such a marginal marginal setup that is really going to take a lot of work to even get a chance at shoehorning a winter storm in.  I could see some front-end stuff near the mountains if everything went just right.  But we really need a rapidly intensifying low off the coast for a more widespread show event for northern portions of the area.  The cold is really not robust enough for a marginal system tracking way to the south.  Like, I really like the tracks showing up at this lead, but man, the cold air is so....mild.

Edit: Not "show"..."snow" above.  See, it's so marginal I can't even type snow.

[Wow]

18z GFS more phasing at 102.. this one is coming more north

[SnowDawg]

Nice 2-3 inch bullseye over WNC on the EPS mean snowfall. Eyeballing looks like 17-18 members showing any snow in the Mtns with 12-13 members being 2 inch plus and 3-5 members being big dogs. 

[Wow]

Well, well.. look who's back.  Temps on the cusp with retreating HP but still in the game.

[BIG FROSTY]

BOOM! I'll take it and be happy!

[mackerel_sky]

3 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

BOOM! I'll take it and be happy!

Yeah, that ain’t happening! It’s the 18zGFS! 45 degree snows are the best!

[Grayman]

I’ve seen that many times in my 55 years living in N.C. . 25 miles north of my house so it believable . I’ll watch from the sidelines per usual . Good luck to Northwestern NC . 

[BIG FROSTY]

1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah, that ain’t happening! It’s the 18zGFS! 45 degree snows are the best!

Probably not, But I'll give it a few more days before I say  "IT"S NOT HAPPENING" 

[Tar Heel Snow]

 

Question for someone actually qualified, how is it that there's such a small change in where the HP is located, yet such a large increase in temps in just 6 hours? Is that purely the time of day and that it's afternoon? Just weird to see the cold retreat so quickly with such a marginal change in the locations of our main players.

 

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

Or at least just straighten it out, that’d cut plenty of time off the Raleigh to Charlotte drive!

Anyway, it seems like right now, there’s still quite a few moving pieces but there’s certainly reason for cautious optimism and pessimism. Remember @Cold Rain’s “so what did we learn here?” thread

January 7, 2017, a post that will live in history.  One of my all-time favorite posts.  I think my favorite line is "Pink areas on a p-type map indicate slightly colder rain than the green areas."

On 1/7/2017 at 8:56 AM, Cold Rain said:

Well, it appears that yet another winter storm has baffled meteorologists, forecasters, models, and snow enthusiasts everywhere.  Personally, I'd put this in the Top Five Busts of All Time category, probably in the top three, behind only the Carolina Crusher and the epic December Debacle in 2000.

I personally want to thank all of the mets and forecasters that do their best to interpret the data and give us useable information so that we can prepare for the conditions ahead.  They shouldn't be the target of anger or hateful rhetoric, as they often are on social media after events like this.

I also want to thank all of you who show up here, post maps, provide analysis, give historical context, and post obs.  This is the very first place I go for weather info.

So, with that said, what have we learned here?  I can think of a few things.  Feel free to add your own:

The NW "trend" is real and almost always occurs.

Model snowfall maps are useless at any lead or range.

Pink areas on a p-type map indicate slightly colder rain than the green areas.

Models usually vastly underestimate both the degree and duration of warm layers.  If the model is even hinting at a warm layer, cut your snowfall forecast by at least 50%.

Models usually overestimate QPF.

Cold air moving in concurrently with the storm will be much slower to do so than indicated by forecast models.

A high pressure located in a near ideal spot is needed for a widespread snowstorm.

Modeled backside snow usually vastly underperforms.

The duration of wintry weather will usually be much shorter than you think.

A Miller A taking a near ideal track in the heart of winter with apparent sufficient supply of cold air can still produce a lot of rain.

The change-over from rain to sleet or sleet to snow usually takes much longer than anticipated.

Even with ideal conditions, forecasted snowfall totals should be trimmed by at least 25%.

Snow and sleet can easily accumulate and remain on a ground that was above freezing ahead of the storm.

Snow and sleet can easily accumulate on a wet ground.

Optimism and hope do not make it snow in the south.

Congrats to all of you to the north and west that saw lots of snow.  Enjoy it, have lots of fun, and take lots of pics.  Everybody else, enjoy your wintry mix and the upcoming mild period before winter hopefully returns later this month or next.

 

[jjwxman]

10 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

 

Question for someone actually qualified, how is it that there's such a small change in where the HP is located, yet such a large increase in temps in just 6 hours? Is that purely the time of day and that it's afternoon? Just weird to see the cold retreat so quickly with such a marginal change in the locations of our main players.

 

At that time frame the HP is not in the ideal spot for a CAD setup. Ideally you want the HP over PA or NY. Also you’re going from 8am to 2pm so it’s not really anything to do with the players it’s more to do with daytime heating. 

[Tar Heel Snow]

4 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

At that time frame the HP is not in the ideal spot for a CAD setup. Ideally you want the HP over PA or NY. Also you’re going from 6am to 2pm so it’s not really anything to do with the players it’s more to do with daytime heating. 

I figured it had to do with the time of day, I see. Thanks!

[StantonParkHoya]

NC folks need to root for more NS interaction and a phase. The HP position without a cold air source isn’t gonna get it done. See the paths to victory from 3-4 days ago.

[SENC]

Love ya';; folks, I'll enjoy My Low-Mid 40's & cold rain.. And.... Oysters..

I hope ya'll cash-in right before Christmas.. 

That said WOW! The Severe Weather deep south.. Tornado's in Dec? How common is that? 

ya'll Hollar at Me when We see this set-up..

heres the Story, We are "due" for something like this too possibly happen again..

It IS/WAS a interesting set-up.. https://www.weather.gov/ilm/christmassnow1989

Wishfull thinking.. (I know),,  I recall quite a few "older" folks opine that from Raligh, you could "see" the Darkened Could to the South, towards the Coast as this was happening.. 

It has been noted that in most significant snowstorms for the eastern Carolinas the surface low tracks very near 32° north latitude, 75° west longitude, about 215 miles southeast of Cape Fear.

 

[griteater]

13 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

NC folks need to root for more NS interaction and a phase. The HP position without a cold air source isn’t gonna get it done. See the paths to victory from 3-4 days ago.

Yes, and that 18z GFS run has some weak phasing at just the right time to eek out some frozen precip.  CMC run was similar. Problem is, the Euro and UKMet pinch off the wave and send it into the deep south without reinforcing height falls coming in from the northwest.  I would think the thing to look/hope for would be a trend to a little sharper ridge out west behind our storm wave, combined with the 50/50 low complex over SE Canada not moving out as quick - so, more amplified flow and less progressive 

[Buddy1987]

Guys I gotta be honest I threw the towel in on this. Crazy to come back on and see CMC and GFS are pretty gung ho here. Cheers to less sleep and more model watching!

[Buddy1987]

1 hour ago, jjwxman said:

At that time frame the HP is not in the ideal spot for a CAD setup. Ideally you want the HP over PA or NY. Also you’re going from 8am to 2pm so it’s not really anything to do with the players it’s more to do with daytime heating. 

Ideally this would be a pretty decent setup for northern areas of the viewing area as the colder air would funnel down the apps and have origins out of eastern canada and the st Lawrence valley. Would help just need it to come south some for the majority of the forum to make a difference. 

[Weatherzim]

Guys I gotta be honest I threw the towel in on this. Crazy to come back on and see CMC and GFS are pretty gung ho here. Cheers to less sleep and more model watching!

Buddy where are you from

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[burrel2]

it appears the energy configuration as it crosses the rocky mountains is a complete crapshoot. None of the models agree with one another in that regard.  I think we need the energy to come out in such a way that it involves a middle piece phasing in with a northern piece and deepening/closing off as it drops southeast from Missouri to South Carolina. That's the only way the core of the upper low/trough will be cold enough to support snow.  We also need to energy to zip on through the great plains and get here quick to capitalize on the decent boundary layer temps we have from the residual high pressure left behind from that front that moves through tomorrow. (ideally we need the meat of the precip to arrive late friday night/early saturday morning).  

What we don't want is a coherent southern piece of energy to come out and phase in with a middle piece that leads the wave sharpening in to a strong closed low towards the gulf states/florida with not nearly enough cold air to produce anything but rain.  Also it appears the models focusing in on the southern piece are slower in general with the track of the trough/low and thus allow temps to warm even more. The ukmet is the slowest of all b/c it just has the southern piece diving south/occluding  and spinning around over  Southern Texas Sunday morning... (seems to be the extreme outlier at the moment).

FWIW, honestly the best "agreement" right now is between the cmc/gfs/icon as they all have somewhat similar evolution of the various pieces.  Euro/jma are similar to each with a slower/further south cut off low.  The Ukmet is all alone with the due south moving, then stationary closed low over texas.