FlatLander48 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Note, the 12z icon and GFS although different solutions for our area both have the weird low development off the coast of Florida that seems strange. So that is worth keeping an eye on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 5:25 PM, msuwx said: Canadian was interesting. Looking at 500mb vort on the 6z Euro, if 12z pans out that way the 6z was at the end of the run, it will look a little different in the Carolinas on the 12z. We will see.Different as in more favorable?Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 CAE with a good tweet hereSent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 5:39 PM, Orangeburgwx said: Different as in more favorable? Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Expand Different as in different from its previous runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Euro out to 72, is a bit more digging out over the 4 cornersSent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 h96,1044HP (7mb stronger than previous 12z run) Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 To me, the CMC still looks like temps would be marginal. But it also may not be handling CAD well. I want to believe in it, but the CMC also a crippling ice storm last week, which never came to fruition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 hr120Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 !!!!!!!hr144Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Well, 12z Euro is different all right. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 12z EURO brings a good storm , just not a snow storm. To warm again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 6:39 PM, BornAgain13 said: 12z EURO brings a good storm , just not a snow storm. To warm again...It is still progress and just 1 run of 51... Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 6:40 PM, Orangeburgwx said: It is still progress and just 1 run of 51... Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Expand Progress for what? it isnt close anywhere, including the mountains. Not even freezing rain shows up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bargainmusic Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 6:39 PM, BornAgain13 said: 12z EURO brings a good storm , just not a snow storm. To warm again... Expand I wish I could remain hopeful but all signs are showing the cold is just not going to be there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 That is one beautiful rain storm though. Shame there's no cold, cause that is a classic look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vman722 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 In SVR news, currently a tornado emergency in Alexandria, LA. This looks pretty devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 6:48 PM, vman722 said: In SVR news, currently a tornado emergency in Alexandria, LA. This looks pretty devastating. Been following on Twitter... Yeah, its badSent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 6:36 PM, Orangeburgwx said: !!!!!!! hr144 Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Expand The CMC is much faster with the storm, like 48 hours faster. If the Euro had the storm deepening off the coast at hr 132 like the CMC it's game on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 New EPS looks sh!tty apparently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 6:36 PM, Orangeburgwx said: !!!!!!! hr144 Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Expand HOW is THAT look unable to produce snow in late December?!?!?!?!?!?! It doesn't get more classic for a major in these parts, albeit better HP placement (and stronger) but that is pretty close to textbook. I'd continue to watch this for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 CMCE 0z Christmas EveSent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 CMCE 12Z 12/23Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 7:27 PM, LurkerBoy said: New EPS looks sh!tty apparently 12z EPS out already? It isnt on Tropical Tidbits or Pivotal Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 EPS is very noisy.... tons of variance in the placement/ strength/ timing of the 500mb feature. 500mb spaghetti looks like..... well, spaghetti.... across the Southeast 12/22-23. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 7:52 PM, msuwx said: EPS is very noisy.... tons of variance in the placement/ strength/ timing of the 500mb feature. 500mb spaghetti looks like..... well, spaghetti.... across the Southeast 12/22-23. Expand So basically , this thing is far from over? Just have to continue to watch.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 7:54 PM, BornAgain13 said: So basically , this thing is far from over? Just have to continue to watch..Yeah, this system falls into the dreaded "model limbo" of no model being consistent til it is too late Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 I still think the setup is favorable for a winter storm for parts of the SE based on the overall pattern. Models are still all over the place and usually are with this kind of setup. The 50/50 low and a cutoff ULL sliding under the Canadian ridge.. it's usually a good outcome. I think there will be most phasing of the ULL by the time it reaches the SE coast to bring it further up. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 7:56 PM, Wow said: I still think the setup is favorable for a winter storm for parts of the SE based on the overall pattern. The 50/50 low and a cutoff ULL sliding under the Canadian ridge.. it's usually a good outcome.Now we need the cold air, that is the only major ingrediant missing Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 7:57 PM, Orangeburgwx said: Now we need the cold air, that is the only major ingrediant missing Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Expand Depends on your area too this has NW of 85 written all over it as usual. Even the 850s on the cmc if that were the outcome are very marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 That's looking pretty darn good right there. 12z EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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