BullCityWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 I came across a neat product on weathermodels.com. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 20 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I came across a neat product on weathermodels.com. Abv avg December in the books more than likely. I wonder how this would look if the members weren't so perturbed ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 11 minutes ago, Wow said: Abv avg December in the books more than likely. I wonder how this would look if the members weren't so perturbed ? While it's not the below we would all love to see, having basically 30 year norm temps for Jan-March is probably the best we could hope for. Would be interesting to revisit that map after the winter and see how it verifies. It seems too smooth, too even to me. It's hard not to think we don't see some ups and downs with at least one month being significantly above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 19 minutes ago, Wow said: Abv avg December in the books more than likely. I wonder how this would look if the members weren't so perturbed ? Maybe we should give them all a beer. It's nice to see January and February are basically normal. We can work with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Not looking great, GEFS and EPS all say we mild for the rest of the month. Which, with our climo...means snow might have to wait till the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 1 minute ago, LurkerBoy said: Not looking great, GEFS and EPS all say we mild for the rest of the month. Which, with our climo...means snow might have to wait till the new year. Which isnt really unusual at all if you're below 2000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Well, GFS continues to be alone... Euro says "made you look." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 At this point, I'd almost totally ignore the GFS unless it agreed with the Euro/Ukmet/ICON. It has just been bad with these fantasy storms in the mid range. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said: GEFS says no snow south of Virgina fyi... Toss it with the OP Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Why toss it? I mean it matches 99% of modeling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Euro and GFS don't look that far apart to me. They're both really far south with a bombing upper level low. If we can keep that feature but trend it more to the north and deeper it could get interesting. IMO, the likelihood of it occluding that far south is doubtful. More likely it either follows an evolution like the CMC, or closes off further north bringing NC/VA in to the game for heavy snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gearhead302 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Kind of early to be saying anybody is out , I mean 6-7 days is a long time Everything south of 85 is out from October till march as far as I'm concerned 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 1 hour ago, Queencitywx said: At this point, I'd almost totally ignore the GFS unless it agreed with the Euro/Ukmet/ICON. It has just been bad with these fantasy storms in the mid range. It's almost laughable with how horrible it is in the midrange. Why people hug it every time it shows a fantasy storm is beyond me. The GFS should have its own thread on this forum. I never expected a flake from this storm and I still don't. We're going to have to wait till next month when climatology is on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 It's cool to keep your expectations down but I wouldn't write this one off along and north of 85 NC/SC. It's going to bomb out along the coast more than likely question is where? I wouldn't be surprised to see a bigger precip field blossom further NW just need enough caa. A lot of typical thread the needle perfect timing ECT I know but ive seen worse produce and not just for my neck of the woods (mtns/foothills) I'm just glad to have something to track before Christmas even if it doesn't pan out. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 15, 2019 Author Share Posted December 15, 2019 First, let me apologize to every person living in the southeast who has wanted to see snow over the last 12 months. It seemed at this time last year there was so much promise of a good snowy winter. Then I started the 2019 thread and it all turned into a bag of monkey crap. However, we now have the opportunity to correct this egregious error. If anyone has any hope of seeing any wintry weather, for the love of Pete, please start a new long term thread!!! For my part, I promise to NEVER start another thread. Oh, I will lurk and post the occasional movie reference or weather ob from time to time, but nothing more. Remember, old posters never die, we just simply fade away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: First, let me apologize to every person living in the southeast who has wanted to see snow over the last 12 months. It seemed at this time last year there was so much promise of a good snowy winter. Then I started the 2019 thread and it all turned into a bag of monkey crap. However, we now have the opportunity to correct this egregious error. If anyone has any hope of seeing any wintry weather, for the love of Pete, please start a new long term thread!!! For my part, I promise to NEVER start another thread. Oh, I will lurk and post the occasional movie reference or weather ob from time to time, but nothing more. Remember, old posters never die, we just simply fade away. It’s ok, this winter is going to be memorable! Post on , my friend, post on! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: It’s ok, this winter is going to be memorable! Post on , my friend, post on! LOL This from the king of negativity on the Board! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 LMA0 upstate tiger. Usually whatever I say the opposite happens so here it goes. Winter is over . Get ready to over seed your lawn early . That should help 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Pesky ole Great Lakes low just wreaking havoc with temps. We lose everything at the surface even with a better track than 12z. Driving rain storm for everyone. We would need a more negative tilt with the vort in MS/AL for this thing to take off earlier and to get the damm Great Lakes low out of the way. I feel like every damn year that thing rears its ugly head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 GFS still suffering from major convective feedback. Has two areas of precip maxima at 156 and 162. One over the outer banks and one way off shore and the LP symbol showing up as 997 over the 2and area offshore. Kind of another wonky run this go around. Temps are the big issue now if the HP doesn't hang in there. I'm invested in this so there's no turning back even if the wheels are falling off. I feel like if this doesn't produce in any manner it could be awhile for the people who enjoy snow. The LR looks pretty abysmal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 The new normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 12 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: GFS still suffering from major convective feedback. Has two areas of precip maxima at 156 and 162. One over the outer banks and one way off shore and the LP symbol showing up as 997 over the 2and area offshore. Kind of another wonky run this go around. Temps are the big issue now if the HP doesn't hang in there. I'm invested in this so there's no turning back even if the wheels are falling off. I feel like if this doesn't produce in any manner it could be awhile for the people who enjoy snow. The LR looks pretty abysmal. Looks like 12z cmc. Holds energy back over MN,WI,MI. Not allowing it to come south. Not gonna cut it if you want and UL snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 12z cmc 18z gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 1 hour ago, IWC said: LOL This from the king of negativity on the Board! He didn't say memorable in what way. The last couple have been memorable in a bad way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Just a few tweaks, and it’s a board wide blizzard 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just a few tweaks, and it’s a board wide blizzardAnd for once that isn't even sarcasm...Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Kenosha Kickers are headed down to Cobb for Christmas this year. I'll ask them to bring some cold and all the proper ingredients... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 0z GFS looks somewhat interesting early stages at 96 hrs with NS energy sharper. Will see where it goes from here. Canadian wasn't too far off at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 0z GFS looks somewhat interesting early stages at 96 hrs with NS energy sharper. Will see where it goes from here. Canadian wasn't too far off at 12z. Great Lakes Low on the 20th...Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Great Lakes Low on the 20th... Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Going the wrong way. GL low refuses to drop in behind vort in the south. What could of been I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Going the wrong way. GL low refuses to drop in behind vort in the south. What could of been I guess.All hail the EUROSent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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