Orangeburgwx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 That's alot of ifsNot really, it is a way better look than we had Friday or anytime yesterday Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Not sure about this one. I'll put my hopes on it, but not my money. It's going to take a perfect setup and strength of the low. One nice thing, if it strengthens as the GFS depicts (especially from 0z last night) there would be a good source of cold air to get pulled in. But that's the key, get pulled in; again we'll need this low to be perfectly placed (to our SE) and strong (..bombing off the coast). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 I keep thinking this is another GFS amped system (similar to the last event). I suppose it good the other models show the storm (..much weaker). As others have said, the euro is close. RAH: The forecast for next weekend remains uncertain as there have been inconsistencies from run to run of the ECMWF and GFS as well as their respective ensemble counterparts. GFS and GEFS solutions have been depicting a very deep upper trough and associated surface low moving through the Southeast. EC and ECENS have maintained a similar idea but much less intense. Today`s 00Z ECMWF is depicting an even weaker upper trough than before, but does continue the idea of weak coastal cyclogenesis off the South Carolina coast. This solution would bring some rain to the area Saturday and Sunday but nothing significant. NBM PoPs during this period are near climo and until a more clear consensus can be reached, sticking with its low impact forecast for next weekend with slight chances of rain and above freezing temperatures seems like the best approach. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 06Z GFS for RDU http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KRDU&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 06Z GFS for RDU http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KRDU&model=gfs&time=current&field=precFirst time seeing that site, give me some help here. The graph for snow says 0 for CAE, but the precip chance shows otherwiseSent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 22 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: First time seeing that site, give me some help here. The graph for snow says 0 for CAE, but the precip chance shows otherwise Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk I'd say there's just about a 0% chance south of 20 and east of 77 with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Kind of early to be saying anybody is out , I mean 6-7 days is a long time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 12z gfs running, out to 108 the energy out west has a different look than last run. This is gonna be a big run for somebody just hope it’s the southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 1 minute ago, HKY1894 said: 12z gfs running, out to 108 the energy out west has a different look than last run. This is gonna be a big run for somebody just hope it’s the southeast No great lakes low as it approaches either, that should help things. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Just now, AsheCounty48 said: No great lakes low as it approaches either, that should help things. Cold air push is slightly better on the 12z run at 132 compared to the 6z at 138. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 540 line at VA/NC border, temps sketchy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 12z GFS sends the low to Florida instead of bombing off the coast...So Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 No cold air from the HP and the storm is a slider essentially and doesn't go bomb-o-genesis off the coast to produce any cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 I guess we are still rooting for a NW trend, but that’s not going to help with the cold air! Normally suppression is due to overwhelming cold, but not in this situation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Well, GFS up to its old tricks of showing a storm but losing the battle with the UKMET and ECMWF. Fun times. Marginal cold equals rain 99% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 The GFS then decides to create a tropical storm and send it due south... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Sometimes you got to wonder Why us taxpayers continue to fund this weather computer model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 GFS with an OK but not great run. The ULL is encouraging. The red flag here was the overall strength of the ULL coming in- about 6dm higher At the ULL core than previous runs. I will continue to bang this drum until we get to mesoscale models- more convective feedback issues here- check out the MCS that goes from Miami to Bermuda in the span of 24 hours. That’s a feature that both impacts the behavior of the entire system and probably won’t happen. No reason to abandon ship here but some colder runs would be nice. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 12 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Well, GFS up to its old tricks of showing a storm but losing the battle with the UKMET and ECMWF. Fun times. Marginal cold equals rain 99% of the time. Don't agree with that assessment of GFS vs. UKMET/ ECMWF. The GFS continues to be much more robust with the 500mb feature than the Euro. There's just much more vorticity/ energy in the GFS version of the feature than on other models. The GFS ends up closing that off and tracking it in a slightly different fashion each run, but the theme of the disturbance being much more potent on the GFS continues. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Glad to see you Matthew . What needs to happen for us to see snow besides pray . Lol . Thanks for your insight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: GFS with an OK but not great run. The ULL is encouraging. The red flag here was the overall strength of the ULL coming in- about 6dm higher At the ULL core than previous runs. I will continue to bang this drum until we get to mesoscale models- more convective feedback issues here- check out the MCS that goes from Miami to Bermuda in the span of 24 hours. That’s a feature that both impacts the behavior of the entire system and probably won’t happen. No reason to abandon ship here but some colder runs would be nice. Yes I concur with this as well. That is a very odd progression of the way a LP would behave and convective feedback has been an issue with a rapidly deepening storm such as this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Actually tracks even further south than the 18z (!) but has a s/w moving across Canada that wipes out the HP. We'll see what the Euro & UKMET have to say next. Confident to say this scenario that the 12z shows ain't happening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Canadian came north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 BIG jump for the Canadian!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Good discussion today guys. Wow: "...but has a s/w moving across Canada that wipes out the HP."---This for sure. ----our weather gremlin 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 18 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: BIG jump for the Canadian!!! It's a start. But wants to hang on too much energy over MN,WI,MI. That little UL will be potentially a problem. Not allowing enough energy to swing south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 It’s definitely encouraging to see the Canadian with the storm. A more realistic progression if I may also add. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 GEFS says no snow south of Virgina fyi... Toss it with the OPSent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 UKMET says no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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