Orangeburgwx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Wouldn’t a super strong low bring in warm upper level temps, lead to sleet?Thanks Mack for the fly in the ointment... We know to count on you Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Thanks Mack for the fly in the ointment... We know to count on you Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk To me , this type of setup is either SNOW or RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: To me , this type of setup is either SNOW or RAIN. I could see places along I40 depending on the damming and cad possibly be a sleet scenario where effects of the low overtake the more dense colder air at the surface. Of course all this is contingent on the low taking the exact track it portrays now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 That’s not a bad graph at this lead time. Let’s see if we can get some momentum on our side and some agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Wow said this reminds him of 3/09 and honestly, it does me too. That storm was either rain or snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 24 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Wow said this reminds him of 3/09 and honestly, it does me too. That storm was either rain or snow. Yep.. as far as the main event is concerned with the strong upper low showing up. Now, there is a possibility of mixing early on because this setup may have one thing that March 09 did not - a HP ahead of the system thanks to a retreating 50/50 low. So could very well be a mix to snow for some in the CAD favored areas. Those EPS members are a good sign - most showing something and a handful showing what a potent upper low can do. It can drop a foot in 6 hrs. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Looking to the skies Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Now it seems it is becoming more likely there will be severe weather in Alabama , especially I-20 corridor southward. Nam is showing awfully high STP #s of up to 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 An interesting post from one of the best MA forum posters. Sigh. 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I agree completely with the first part. But I’m not sure I agree with the second. Since March of 2018 we haven’t had any real -NAO blocking. We had some bootleg transient ridges as a tpv lobe traversed a location to promote a short lived ridge there. But what’s coming up seems like a classic west based -NAO episode. It also seems likely it gets muted for a while by as hostile a pac as we could have. The -NAO actually begins in only 24 hours as the current wave breaking near 50/50 builds a ridge over the top that links with the current epo side block. By 48 hours it’s a classic west based -NAO with 50/50 low representation. 2 days later even a stronger west based -NAO representation. And it is “blocking the flow” despite a raging fast pac jet and gulf of Alaska vortex the next wave is being blocked under and is about to become the next 50/50 low. That’s a classic evolution. Lower heights exist in the means there because in a -NAO every wave gets forced under through that domain. But one system doesn’t just sit there for weeks on end. If it did we would just be frigid cold and bone dry. A day later (now 4 days unto the -NAO) and we still have a classic ridge over low representation but the pacific problem is rearing its head. That isn’t just a bad pac, it’s atrocious! That gulf of Alaska vortex is pumping a ridge into central NAM. The blocking isn’t breaking down but the central N Am ridge is going to merge and get absorbed which severely muted its effect. But even with that, it still manages to force the next wave under us! With that pacific look that storm should cut to Hudson Bay! If you want to know what our weather would look like without a -NAO with that pac just go back to December 2015. The pattern over the east is blocked, that’s how a system gets suppressed south of us despite a vortex on the west coast. It’s just not going to be able to completely offset a record pac jet in an awful alignment. At this point we’re 11 days unto the -NAO and the pac jet has cut underneath as soon as the vortex off the west coast relaxed some as is typical in a -NAO. The pac is still bad just not the absolute dumpster fire it was. This is still a classic west based -NAO with lower heights through the 50/50 space through the 11 days. Who knows if it’s even right this far out but the representation is classic blocking regime imo. Now at day 15 it’s evolved into an east based block. Ironically the NAO index will be more negative now since its calculated at Iceland. But again who knows if it’s right and the monster Scand ridge would imply we likely cycle back into blocking not break down. The look past day 5 could be BS. But what we see on guidance is classic -NAO imo. It’s muted by other hostile factors. We went through a similar problem towards the start of the last great blocking period in Feb into Mar 2018. We suffered a perfect track rainstorm then a couple near misses due to an imperfect trough axis because of a less ideal Pac. Then a storm got suppressed. It was during the second cycle or pulse of the NAO that we finally got a nice snowstorm in late March. No idea how this will play out. But I do think this is finally a real -NAO. But that doesn’t mean we get snow. We had a real -NAO most of the winter of 2000/2001 without much to show because of a not ideal pac. December 2001 had a great NAO block the pac ruined. It’s hapoened before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Upper levels looked good even down here for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 An interesting post from one of the best MA forum posters. Sigh. I see no lies in that, but keep in mind he is referring to the Mass. area, we can score big and they go crying about a dumpster fire set up (opposite of normal,I know). But notice the look on the 30th? Still a piece of -NAO, PNA looks way better (maybe slightly positive?), and another lobe of the TPV starting to break down into Hudson Bay. Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 We're so funny. Friday: Pattern looks good, a lot to be excited about. Saturday: Pattern stinks, might as well cancel winter, what does winter 2021 look like? Sunday: Man oh man, all the players on the field, heading for fun times! Monday: ? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: We're so funny. Friday: Pattern looks good, a lot to be excited about. Saturday: Pattern stinks, might as well cancel winter, what does winter 2021 look like? Sunday: Man oh man, all the players on the field, heading for fun times! Monday: ? January is our snowiest month! Tuesday: GFS was close.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 January is our snowiest month! Tuesday: GFS was close..Wednesday: DAMMIT EURO!Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: We're so funny. Friday: Pattern looks good, a lot to be excited about. Saturday: Pattern stinks, might as well cancel winter, what does winter 2021 look like? Sunday: Man oh man, all the players on the field, heading for fun times! Monday: ? Are you a day ahead of us in Easley? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Great Lakes lowSent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Great Lakes low Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Yup and HP subsequently displaced too far north/northwest. It's an Op run so well see what ensembles show. Watch Euro come out of left field now Edit: HP does kind of slide in tandem but like you alluded to the GL low is a fly in the ointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Still looks like it’s going to be a boom run! ULL still dropping in and looking strong! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Still looks like it’s going to be a boom run! ULL still dropping in and looking strong! I posted in MA forum with this as well but that screams convective feedback issues on the GFS. Typical if ULL is going to supercharge the storm as it forms off CHS/MYR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Wow that ULL BOMBED...Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Small differences but it's definitely still there, which given the oddity of a look like that, just it showing up back to back is something lol. Ensemble trends is the key over the next few days, especially seeing if the EPS ever joins in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Somehow manages to miss Columbia because of course it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Somehow manages to miss Columbia because of course it does.You can literally see the pinhole over CAE... Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: Somehow manages to miss Columbia because of course it does. I would bet $100 no way as time got closer if that came to fruition that surface would be such a sharp cutoff with a storm going under bombogenesis. 1001-981 in 12 hours. NW side of storm would be going bananas. That ULL would determine a good bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Looks like central N.C. got the best snow that run. Why was far west left out on that run? Late bloomer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Just watching that bowling ball go across the country is something else... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: I would bet $100 no way as time got closer if that came to fruition that surface would be such a sharp cutoff with a storm going under bombogenesis. 1001-981 in 12 hours. NW side of storm would be going bananas. That ULL would determine a good bit. Yeah, you’d think the NW side would be much more enhanced. There’s a high to the NE too. Again, I kind of think of this like a tropical event with this setup. You could see it wring out the atmosphere in a similar way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Yeah, you’d think the NW side would be much more enhanced. There’s a high to the NE too. Again, I kind of think of this like a tropical event with this setup. You could see it wring out the atmosphere in a similar way. All that is the gravy train. We all want the surface and the upper atmosphere to behave. Give me that track come Wednesday and I'd feel pretty good. SE flow would aid in enhancement for sure at least up this way and WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Overall the GFS is consistent with the setup. Good trends. Surface reflection will bounce around.. just seeing the consistency with the upper level is good at this point in time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Just now, Buddy1987 said: All that is the gravy train. We all want the surface and the upper atmosphere to behave. Give me that track come Wednesday and I'd feel pretty good. SE flow would aid in enhancement for sure at least up this way and WNC You and I would be having a white Christmas up our way if that came to fruition... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Grayman said: Looks like central N.C. got the best snow that run. Why was far west left out on that run? Late bloomer? Yeah that's usually the case. Either the cold doesn't work down until the low gets strong enough to force it down, which doesn't happen until farther east (so the precip to the west is rain), or in a coastal low the precip doesn't make it far enough inland. Either way, eastern areas fare way better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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