Cold Rain Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 I don't trust the Euro being bone dry. Like was said above, the pattern is active. I know you can still get waves suppressed, but it's like it doesn't have anything there to get suppressed. The southern stream is strong, and I suspect the energy that will be there will be stronger than the Euro is seeing right now. OTOH, the GFS's and the CMC's timing is off, the GFS moreso. Speed the northern stream up on the CMC a bit, and you got something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 40 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I don't trust the Euro being bone dry. Like was said above, the pattern is active. I know you can still get waves suppressed, but it's like it doesn't have anything there to get suppressed. The southern stream is strong, and I suspect the energy that will be there will be stronger than the Euro is seeing right now. OTOH, the GFS's and the CMC's timing is off, the GFS moreso. Speed the northern stream up on the CMC a bit, and you got something. Some have alluded to the fact that h5 on euro has had some pretty noticeable and significant changes to where some expect fireworks with the euro as the main players move into the right position. I dont believe it either. Do I entrust my faith fully in the GFS? Hell no but within the next 2-3 days we should get a better idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 If you want snow in NC, you want to see dry and suppression at this juncture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 While the GEFS has backed off a little with it's setup for Dec 20-21, the EPS has gradually improved. Here at day 8, it has a nice, sprawling, closed 500mb low over SE Canada (1st image) with surface high pressure behind it, north of the Great Lakes (2nd image). The potential southern stream wave is in W Texas - though it is low amplitude over the southeast due to the suppressed height field along the east coast. Needs some work, but a decent look here. The most important piece here is getting the consolidated closed low over SE Canada in place. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 From the 12z Euro Op run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Suppression is important at this juncture, however, I will take everything with a grain of salt. Up until we are in a 5 day forecast period and have solid agreement amongst models, I just can't buy into anything they are spitting out. Not trying to be a "debbie downer" but there is just so much that can go wrong. We are in the south and rarely do see any big snows before Christmas. Trust me, I want snow as much as anyone on this forum, but I've been screwed far too many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 EPS12ZSent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 FWIW 12z CMC ensemblesSent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 With an active STJ, and a closed low in eastern Canada, combined with a -nao I'll take my chances. Maybe nothing comes of this period but its definitely increasing our chances of "scoring "! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 this is beautiful. We need to start seeing some serious clown map action soon. Come on man! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 15 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: this is beautiful. We need to start seeing some serious clown map action soon. Come on man! Nice to see you post man. Honestly a look like that it doesn't get much better. Love the banana highs along with blocking and tanking NAO. Regardless of what surface maps show is irrelevant. This look is going to produce fireworks if it keeps up with an active STJ. The STJ has been ripe all middle to late fall. All we need is the cold and blocking now and someone is going to get whacked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 I'm starting to like this trend... 18z GEFS Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Love the look and the trend but those HPs are not very strong looking 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Looks about right for my backyard . Sorry could not resist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Is anyone able to share what the EPS showed? Or the individual members? I'm going to be on the OH/WV border so I'm excited about my chances of seeing snow with this one.. I want to see the euro and eps start jumping on board though. Nice looking signal on the GFS and GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 0z gfs shows big storm and it's colder than 18z for Dec 21st-22nd. 500mb pattern is pretty classic for a big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 0Z GFS brings big snows to Central and southern VA and Northern NC with the storm next weekend... key right now is not the amounts but that the GFS has consistently shown a storm of some sorts... sure would be nice to see the EURO jump on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Either the GFS is on to something , or the GFS is on something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 This map is classic look for an east coast winter storm. Ridge axis out west could move to the west a little maybe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, HKY1894 said: This map is classic look for an east coast winter storm. Ridge axis out west could move to the west a little maybe. Definitely a classic look , I was watching that bowling ball move across the country as the GFS hrs was rolling in... check out that High Pressure position in Canada as well.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Thanks for updates. Any chance us poor folks in Southern NC can get in game. Looks huge for nothern N.C. and Southern Va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Thanks for updates. Any chance us poor folks in Southern NC can get in game. Looks huge for nothern N.C. and Southern VaThere is no game at this point. No one is in. There might be a scrimmage next week, but we're not even sure we have enough to field a team.Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 The freaking Kuchera is a clown map...Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: The freaking Kuchera is a clown map... Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk I really gotta move north of I-40. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 I really gotta move north of I-40. You aren't the only one...Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 The HP gets all the way up to 1044 on that run! Just the slightest nudge south with the cold is all I'd need. That run brought back terrible memories of last December's storm. 14+ inches just across the line in NC while I sat at home just 15 miles to the SW with a sloppy wet 3 inches that by the time it stopped raining was basically gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 0z Euro is eerily quiet again next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 36 minutes ago, JoshM said: 0z Euro is eerily quiet again next week. There's actually something there this time though. It just gets super suppressed, similar to the CMC, it's halfway to Cuba. It's quite warm on that run though, which is odd given the suppression. Has pretty much the whole continent above normal by day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 In fact the CMC and Euro low locations are almost identical at the end of the run. I suppose a phase is needed to pull the cold down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 3 hours ago, SnowDawg said: In fact the CMC and Euro low locations are almost identical at the end of the run. I suppose a phase is needed to pull the cold down? Yep, I guess we torch, just in time for Christmas, as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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