ryan1234 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Outside of the occasional 1-2 day cold shot, could it be another Death Ridge for the win?? One more week of nothingburger means we are into January and crossing our fingers we nail something down in the 10 week period to mid March. The line to the cliff begins now.Maybe I’m a little late to my response(got busy) but to give up on winter, when technically, it’s not officially winter... is just not something I would ever want to hear any professional met say. It’s like good olé Glenn forecasting a crippling ice storm for Atlanta. It’s premature. 10 weeks is a long time. You yourself have had some decent snow and ice events during these last few years. A lot of us haven’t. Cliff diving isn’t warranted (yet). . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 To note for Wow and Grits posts we need the TPV to not elongate along the Canadian border and consolidate the bowling ball of 50/50 blocking up un eastern Canada otherwise it's a torch instead of a HECS. Not asking for a lot but with the law of physics I dont think anyone really knows the answer until we are at least 7 days in as to what H5 may actually look like. 12z GFS really showed us what COULD happen if the stars align while Euro shows what our doom and gloom has been this early in the season for years on end. Both models are about as far as you can get for polar opposites. Euro basically feeds a western trough with east coast ridging and the GFS feeds the TPV into the 50/50 while also having a banana high type structure and producing a textbook miller A for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 FWIW, 0z NAM bringing in precip earlier. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 00z RGEM I think has about 10 hours of ZR in my area. Mess or No it's about temps, 28-29 vs 31-32 BIG difference when you talking ZR. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 15 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: 00z RGEM I think has about 10 hours of ZR in my area. Mess or No it's about temps, 28-29 vs 31-32 BIG difference when you talking ZR. Not saying it's not right , but I've seen the RGEM do this... and it be way off... Personally , I believe the RGEM is to cold with to much ZR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 hour ago, JoshM said: FWIW, 0z NAM bringing in precip earlier. Yeah, here are the ZR totals from Pivotal Weather: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Dewpoints are in low to mid 20s at precipitation onset in the latest 00Z NAM. The 3K version prints out total ZR accumulations at about half that of the 12K version, but that is still rather significant when looking at two tenths or greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Moving ahead 10 days (lol)....wow at this 00z run of the GFS...just a textbook 500mb evolution and Miller A snowstorm...split flow wave enters the U.S. in Baja and treks due east, wow 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 This agrees with the 18z GEFS...slower, less amped storm. Presto! It's a snowstorm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Wow, snows all the way to the N.C and SC coast . Can I cash my chips in and go home? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 29 minutes ago, Grayman said: Wow, snows all the way to the N.C and SC coast . Can I cash my chips in and go home? We need some image pron... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Wow, snows all the way to the N.C and SC coast . Can I cash my chips in and go home? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 We need some image pron...Even down my way gets a dusting Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Winter weather advisory posted for Caldwell County! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 6z NAM was about the same as 0z. Current Winter Weather Advisories from GSP https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=gsp&wwa=winter weather advisory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 GFS still shows "some type of storm" on the 21st... seems to trend more toward a disorganized mess. The ECMWF doesn't show anything for that timeframe really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: GFS still shows "some type of storm" on the 21st... seems to trend more toward a disorganized mess. The ECMWF doesn't show anything for that timeframe really. Very weird evolution where the low is super "jumpy" I still believe it's a threat tho. Need that stout HP to help the storm say suppressed compared to what the storms have been doing lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Just saw thisSent from my A577VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Back to chasing 10 day threats! I love this time of year! Hopefully the NC foothills still have power, to continue monitoring the 21st storm! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Back to chasing 10 day threats! I love this time of year! Hopefully the NC foothills still have power, to continue monitoring the 21st storm!21st is just 9 days away, stay positive!Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Waiting on a thread to be made about tonight’s “ice storm” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, weatherlover said: Waiting on a thread to be made about tonight’s “ice storm” It’s going to be hard for people to measure in the hundredth of inches! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: It’s going to be hard for people to measure in the hundredth of inches! An official CoCoRaHS rain gauge will do the trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Just now, Solak said: An official CoCoRaHS rain gauge will do the trick. A caliper would also work if measuring on a tree twig. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 9 hours ago, griteater said: Moving ahead 10 days (lol)....wow at this 00z run of the GFS...just a textbook 500mb evolution and Miller A snowstorm...split flow wave enters the U.S. in Baja and treks due east, wow Doesn't seem like the GEFS supports it very much though. Very broad brush statement I know and the pattern is a better read than clown maps, but I'd think for a good pattern you'd see an uptick in the snowfall mean on the ensembles. I love seeing that progression though, we haven't seen a nice Miller A storm even modeled for us in I can't remember... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Doesn't seem like the GEFS supports it very much though. Very broad brush statement I know and the pattern is a better read than clown maps, but I'd think for a good pattern you'd see an uptick in the snowfall mean on the ensembles. I love seeing that progression though, we haven't seen a nice Miller A storm even modeled for us in I can't remember... I say we need to be in 5 days (Monday) to really have a handle. I mean, last night got colder than BOTH the GFS and EURO had called for (it was 33 at 5am), so we are all in a "wait and see" phase until we can sample. Another factor is the AO/NAO going negative in lockstep... Basically the Browns have a better percentage to make the playoffs this year than the percentage of any one run being good right now due to it flip/flopping Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Also...Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 54 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: It’s going to be hard for people to measure in the hundredth of inches! Haha in the end I do have an advisory for .2 of ice. Can def cause problems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Haha in the end I do have an advisory for .2 of ice. Can def cause problems. For those of us in the school system this amount can be trouble. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 I like the fact that we are not seeing the prospects of an unending torch or stranded in the wasteland of a bad pattern that takes weeks to get out of. I'm not too excited for the 21st period right now, but we're in a pattern for the foreseeable future where a storm can pop up quickly. Timing will be key, as usual. But with the possibilities of real blocking forming down the line, we might be on the cusp of a really good window for big winter weather near or just after the flip of the calendar. Sure has a different feel from Decembers in recent memory. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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