ryan1234 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Haha, why is this output method allowed to exist?? And I’m sure ‘Charlotte Stories’ will have an article titled, ‘Charlotte may have historic White Christmas’ with the map included... ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Someone check Glenn Burns... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 3 hours ago, jjwxman said: Haha, why is this output method allowed to exist?? So much for my last minute Christmas shopping. Somebody track this day by day for the next 13 days and lets do a post mortem on just how bad this crapcast actually is. I'll go with dry and 42° for the day. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 3 hours ago, jjwxman said: Haha, why is this output method allowed to exist?? Hey look I am in the 44" to 48" range or is that a .01 near the 37? Not bad for an Apps Runner. Hope that's a high ratio and not a 6:1 or we are in trouble lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Hey look I am in the 44" to 48" range or is that a .01 near the 37? Not bad for an Apps Runner. Hope that's a high ratio and not a 6:1 or we are in trouble lol. Good thing it includes sleet and ZR, with a 10:1 ratio... If it was 6:1, everybody here will be having New Years in the darkSent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 4 hours ago, Queencitywx said: I think there's a definite shot at seeing some sleet/snow mix in with the end of the precip from Durham west on 40 tomorrow morning. This just in! Good call on the possibility of some flakes!!!! Not buying the Up to 1 inch, but maybe some mix!!! .TONIGHT...Rain. Snow likely after midnight. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Lows in the lower 30s. Northwest winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. A chance of snow and rain in the morning. Little or no snow accumulation. Highs in the mid 40s. Light and variable winds. Gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 These images from the 18z GFS literally made me LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just now, JoshM said: These images from the 18z GFS literally made me LOL 14 to one ratios geez... and thunder snow?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Kinda surprising to see the GFS have a similar or close to outcome with that storm for 2 runs in a row... that time frame could be legit though if the blocking sets up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 I think the time period beginning 10-12 days from now has some promise 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 1 hour ago, Wow said: I think the time period beginning 10-12 days from now has some promise Nice to see you post. Speaks on the potential. Takes a near perfect track for the northern viewing area. Low tracks from Columbia to Richmond. Near perfect track climitologically speaking for a massive snow storm for I40 north coupled with a HP anchored up around the Toronto area supplying us some fresh cold air from Canadian origins. God I hope that comes to fruition. I always feel like these long range precursors from multiple model suites have some type of legitimacy behind them and signal that some of the biggest storms for the area have a rhyme and reason behind them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 6 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said: Hey look I am in the 44" to 48" range or is that a .01 near the 37? Not bad for an Apps Runner. Hope that's a high ratio and not a 6:1 or we are in trouble lol. LOL. That map is so ridiculous. Not only that, but any time a map shows GSP being the snowfall bullseye FOR THE ENTIRE NATION, you know it's total BS right off the bat! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 12z GFS still bringing a big storm of some sorts , SNOW/ICE/RAIN depending on location the weekend before Christmas.... still plenty of time to iron out the details of that possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 I still like the setup the GFS shows in 9-10 days... 50/50 low and rather robust wave trekking across the south. Verbatim it's too warm but if that 50/50 low can trend a bit stronger to build in the HP we'd be in business. Euro, while not showing this exact storm, does show lower height field off Newfoundland and Greenland blocking. Getting that upper low there is key to bring down the cold. The STJ is full throttle so just like last winter, we are not in need of bring in the precip. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 ^ Yeah guys, the GEFS at 500mb shows some nice features here. Ideally for a colder and more suppressed setup for us, the 'inflection point' or transition between the negative anomalies over SE Canada and the positive anomalies over Greenland and Davis Strait would be closer to the U.S., but it's still pretty good here overall, and it's the type of setup that could trend south and colder over time due to the block (unlike the setup for our storm tomorrow). Here's the storm traversing the south with the freezing lines on the ensemble mean draped thru parts of TN and NC 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 The setup the week of the 20th is certainly intriguing. A lot of moving pieces but I do especially like the blocking showing up, as outlined above, and the NAO going from strongly positive to neutral (or perhaps negative). The southern storm track from the GFS isn't bad, just need cold air transport. I think there is potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Seems like pretty much everything has been cutting for a couple years now, so just to see that storm track on the GFS is encouraging. Just a little bit stronger push on the cold air and we'd be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Could be a much needed soaker for the end of the week. When all is said and done, total liquid precipitation for the period Thursday night through Friday night could range from an inch to an inch and a half in most places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 11, 2019 Author Share Posted December 11, 2019 Well this forecaster at the CPC certainly is a . We shall see I guess. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php "For those celebrating the Christmas holiday, travel conditions should be favorable, with the likelihood of a major winter storm looking minimal for most of the central and eastern U.S and the influx of moisture starting to wane in the west. Those dreaming of a white Christmas are likely to be sorely disappointed; temperatures over the eastern two-thirds of the contiguous U.S. are forecast to be anomalously warm." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 11 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: Well this forecaster at the CPC certainly is a . We shall see I guess. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php "For those celebrating the Christmas holiday, travel conditions should be favorable, with the likelihood of a major winter storm looking minimal for most of the central and eastern U.S and the influx of moisture starting to wane in the west. Those dreaming of a white Christmas are likely to be sorely disappointed; temperatures over the eastern two-thirds of the contiguous U.S. are forecast to be anomalously warm." LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Outside of the occasional 1-2 day cold shot, could it be another Death Ridge for the win?? One more week of nothingburger means we are into January and crossing our fingers we nail something down in the 10 week period to mid March. The line to the cliff begins now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 I think model-wise we’re fine. CFS meaningless 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 18z gfs has a really nice setup for 12/21, verbatim it's 35 and rain for the north of 40 crowd but that has the look of a classic miller A snowstorm as modeled which is probably incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Storm signal is still there on the 18z GFS for the Weekend before Christmas... little colder this time but need it to be colder... plenty of time to track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 So what are the realistic things we need to hope for to get this thing colder? Better placement of the 50/50 and the HP? Slightly better track? Little of both? Be nice to get the Euro to look similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Central to Northern VA gets Hammered this run... would love to see soon the EURO and CMC start showing a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 So what are the realistic things we need to hope for to get this thing colder? Better placement of the 50/50 and the HP? Slightly better track? Little of both? Be nice to get the Euro to look similar. Everything combined... But GEFS should paint a better picture Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 GEFS is not in agreement with the OP... most members hav the sfc low much slower and weaker as a slider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Wait! Are we saying SUPPRESSED??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 The GEFS is trending nicely (including the 18z run). However, the EPS and CMC Ens aren't dropping all of the closed upper low over North Central Canada down into SE Canada, and not showing nearly as nice of a Davis Strait block & 50/50 low couplet...so that needs to change. I did see that the EPS Control run was quite suppressed and cold along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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