calculus1 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 850s are only cold enough for snow for the initial onset of precipitation in NC. However, the lower-level cold air hangs on for a long time. Lots of sleet and freezing rain on this setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Well, what have we here? Usual caveats and all, but it's fun to look at.Clown map... Kuchera shows a messSent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Even though this is simply a GFS fever dream, it feels like a scrimmage so I checked soundings for MBY. The two best things I’ve got: 1. Plymouth State has expanded their GFS soundings! Used to be you could only get them 120 hours out. Now they seem to go for the whole run and in my opinion, they are the best soundings on the Internet. 2. MBY stays safely in the snow/sleet category until the end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Given the relative weakness of the wave this seems like nice transition zone between 40 and 85 with a nasty, nasty ice storm into SC 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 GEFS offers some support for op. CMC has no wave other than the weekend rain storm. Will have to watch trends for a few more model cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, HKY1894 said: GEFS offers some support for op. CMC has no wave other than the weekend rain storm. Will have to watch trends for a few more model cycles. Temps look iffy, even in N.C., unless there are very low DPs and those are temps above, before precip arrives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Temps look iffy, even in N.C., unless there are very low DPs and those are temps above, before precip arrives? That's an ensemble mean with lots of spread in the members... operational is quite chilly. This is valid 18z..... heart of the event when already well north of 1" of liquid has fallen in Charlotte. 2m temps: 950mb temps: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 14 minutes ago, msuwx said: That's an ensemble mean with lots of spread in the members... operational is quite chilly. This is valid 18z..... heart of the event when already well north of 1" of liquid has fallen in Charlotte. 2m temps: 950mb temps: Which would lead me to believe that would be mostly sleet, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 A 1043 high over the MN/Iowa border should result in a cold press MUCH farther South than central Missouri. The whole northern fringe of this should be snow. This tells me either the model is completely off, or the there is very marginal cold to work with. Remember, cold is ALWAYS the first and biggest concern in our area; espcially outside of elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: A 1043 high over the MN/Iowa border should result in a cold press MUCH farther South than central Missouri. The whole northern fringe of this should be snow. This tells me either the model is completely off, or the there is very marginal cold to work with. Remember, cold is ALWAYS the first and biggest concern in our area; espcially outside of elevation. That’s not a precip type map only precip rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 12z Euro stronger with the wave thru 96 .. good sign there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Euro trending towards the GFS! Game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Relatively big changes at 500mb on the 12z Euro. Much slower with the shortwave and leaves it behind similar to the GFS from the main trough. Precipitation blossoms in the Gulf and moves ashore. Where the CAD sets up?? GFS has historically been better with that compared to other models imho. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 12z EURO still says , Here's your rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 I feel like our cold source just has to be rather unimpressive otherwise I feel the cold press would be much better given this look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bargainmusic Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 50 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 12z EURO still says , Here's your rain! The change in temperature from hour 144 to 150 seems a bit drastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherzim Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 So euro good or bad I've heard both Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 27 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: I feel like our cold source just has to be rather unimpressive otherwise I feel the cold press would be much better given this look. The timing on the euro precip wise is better but compared to earlier runs It's not as cold nor dry over the mid Atlantic thursday..some 5 to 8 degrees warmer with temps/dps..which obviously means temps downstream arent as cold either. Quite a spread/variability this week among the models that is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Euro is stronger (a good trend) with wave 1 compared to prev run (which is the only wave that is moving through at just the right time with CAD in place), however it's not strong enough with wave 2 kicking it away without much more development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 2 hours ago, Queencitywx said: Which would lead me to believe that would be mostly sleet, right? Yes. Lots of sleet. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 4 hours ago, Queencitywx said: Which would lead me to believe that would be mostly sleet, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 18z gfs a bit faster with the wave and moves in just as the CAD starts to work in.. not enough to change over to ice well into SC this time, though. Threading that needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Posting the 18z GFS while we still have a winter storm on the models 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Posting the 18z GFS while we still have a winter storm on the models Yep, this run was way warmer, by tomorrow, it’s Roxboro special! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Features are all still there on the 18z GFS. Vort moves in slightly faster....barely. But the players remain on the field. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 RAH thoughts at this time... Cyclogenesis will then occur from the GOM to the Sern and middle Atlantic coast later Fri into the weekend. While precipitation chances will consequently increase, the preceding Arctic high will have retreated by that time, given an unfavorably configured mid-upr flow pattern for maintaining a cold high for wintry precipitation in cntl NC. As such, any p-type concerns would be brief and limited to onset over the nw Piedmont early Fri, if at all. It should be noted that the 06Z and 12Z deterministic GFS solutions that depict a much stronger, lead srn stream perturbation --and cyclogenesis off the sern US coast centered around Thu-Thu night-- has little deterministic or ensemble support and is consequently considered an outlier/low probability solution at this time. Such a solution, however, would be an icy one owing to the maximized presence of Arctic high pressure that will otherwise be in place during that time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 29 minutes ago, Solak said: RAH thoughts at this time... Cyclogenesis will then occur from the GOM to the Sern and middle Atlantic coast later Fri into the weekend. While precipitation chances will consequently increase, the preceding Arctic high will have retreated by that time, given an unfavorably configured mid-upr flow pattern for maintaining a cold high for wintry precipitation in cntl NC. As such, any p-type concerns would be brief and limited to onset over the nw Piedmont early Fri, if at all. It should be noted that the 06Z and 12Z deterministic GFS solutions that depict a much stronger, lead srn stream perturbation --and cyclogenesis off the sern US coast centered around Thu-Thu night-- has little deterministic or ensemble support and is consequently considered an outlier/low probability solution at this time. Such a solution, however, would be an icy one owing to the maximized presence of Arctic high pressure that will otherwise be in place during that time. Yeah Solak, I read this two different ways. One RAH is telling us the GFS is an outlier (for good reasons); but two they're thinking it could happen. (so)Low odds but they need to cover their butts. We need to hope they keep mentioning the possibility in tonight's discussion, I will say I have grown to really respect the mets at RAH over the years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: Yeah Solak, I read this two different ways. One RAH is telling us the GFS is an outlier (for good reasons); but two they're thinking it could happen. (so)Low odds but they need to cover their butts. We need to hope they keep mentioning the possibility in tonight's discussion, I will say I have grown to really respect the mets at RAH over the years. Gotta mention the chance plus cover your ass, but as we know, cold rain usually reigns supreme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Somebody wake up @BIG FROSTY and tell him he got NAMed tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 16 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Somebody wake up @BIG FROSTY and tell him he got NAMed tonight Any maps to post?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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