CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 2 hours ago, LurkerBoy said: How’s the LR looking? To me it seems we oscillate between AN and BN but avg out around normal for temps. Mostly rain but with some mood flake potential. You are only saying "mood flakes" this winter in Asheville? That's a bold statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 December ain’t looking great, unless you like golf ! The mood flakes Asheville sees Monday, may be it until Jan/Feb! Happy holidays! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 19 hours ago, kvegas-wx said: I know you werent here last year James so I will remind you we banked more than this forecast in one single event....in December......drops mic..... I'm underwhelmed. Tell me 20"+ for the triad and I might perk up. Haha, I know, but I haven’t seen more than a dusting of snow since 2017, and that was just because I was on vacation. I’m desperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 8 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: December ain’t looking great, unless you like golf ! The mood flakes Asheville sees Monday, may be it until Jan/Feb! Happy holidays! Based on what? The guidance I'm looking at doesn't look too bad. No torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 On 11/29/2019 at 1:00 PM, mackerel_sky said: December ain’t looking great, unless you like golf ! The mood flakes Asheville sees Monday, may be it until Jan/Feb! Happy holidays! Get a grip man..... you know the mountains will get their share. Heck, there are two more NWFS events already on the models behind Monday's event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 hour ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Get a grip man..... you know the mountains will get their share. Heck, there are two more NWFS events already on the models behind Monday's event. Exactly. The models aren't good enough right now. But I see some changes. Would not be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 21 hours ago, PackGrad05 said: Based on what? The guidance I'm looking at doesn't look too bad. No torches. Based on models! I don’t see any cold snaps, I mean I get down to 28 one day out of the next 15 . I mean if you’re here to track normal temps and occasional rains , by all means, go for it! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Based on models! I don’t see any cold snaps, I mean I get down to 28 one day out of the next 15 . I mean if you’re here to track normal temps and occasional rains , by all means, go for it! Yeah Mack, I don't see any big pushes of arctic air the next couple of weeks. No torches, but as you stated very normal (continental air masses). I wouldn't mind seeing an arctic front (Siberian Express) come trough; even if it just produced a dry outcome. Seems like it's been sometime since we've seen this in December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Yeah Mack, I don't see any big pushes of arctic air the next couple of weeks. No torches, but as you stated very normal (continental air masses). I wouldn't mind seeing an arctic front (Siberian Express) come trough; even if it just produced a dry outcome. Seems like it's been sometime since we've seen this in December. Normal would be a win for December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 49 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Normal would be a win for December. In my opinion above average would be a win looking at the past 10 or so years! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCSteel Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 18z GFS final frames proclaims “tease the season!” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Well from whats happened in the past I wouldn't want a big snowstorm in December because I swear every time we have a big snowstorm in December I think we're going to have a great winter and then the rest of the winter we end up without another nice storm at all. So I'll take my chances with the big snows holding off until January so maybe we can get a couple of nice storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 If it gives you any confidence, Robert is a full Gung-Ho on the pattern getting cold for someone in the east mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Tacoma said: Well from whats happened in the past I wouldn't want a big snowstorm in December because I swear every time we have a big snowstorm in December I think we're going to have a great winter and then the rest of the winter we end up without another nice storm at all. So I'll take my chances with the big snows holding off until January so maybe we can get a couple of nice storms. I understand your reasoning, but I've learned over the years get what you can, any time of the year (..we're the SE). We could have a warm December and then keep getting warmth straight through spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 14 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I understand your reasoning, but I've learned over the years get what you can, any time of the year (..we're the SE). We could have a warm December and then keep getting warmth straight through spring. Having been here in the SE for a year now, and used to a good amount of snow over the past decade, I have had to make my piece that I will never see snowfall total's like this again (except 2011-2012) YEAR YEAR Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Total 2009 2010 0 0 26.3 12.7 28.4 0.4 0 67.8 2010 2011 0 0 19.8 35.7 4.7 1.3 0 61.5 2011 2012 0 0 0 5.5 0 0 0 5.5 2012 2013 0 1.1 1.4 4.7 35.8 8.8 0 51.8 2013 2014 0 0.2 5.4 24.8 23.9 3.2 0 57.5 2014 2015 0 0 0.3 22.8 15.2 23.9 0 62.2 2015 2016 0 0 Trace 18.8 14.3 2.7 0.1 35.9 2016 2017 0 0 4.1 14.3 15.8 7.9 0 42.1 2017 2018 0 0 7.4 21.2 1.3 21 4.3 55.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Robert had a short piece on FB about how the Euro/GFS/CMC keeps showing Western American Ridging showing up in the next 7-14 days. Potentially artic outbreak. With storm track from Pacific NW to South Central states to EC. Should allow the GOM to open up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Fantom X said: Having been here in the SE for a year now, and used to a good amount of snow over the past decade, I have had to make my piece that I will never see snowfall total's like this again (except 2011-2012) YEAR YEAR Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Total 2009 2010 0 0 26.3 12.7 28.4 0.4 0 67.8 2010 2011 0 0 19.8 35.7 4.7 1.3 0 61.5 2011 2012 0 0 0 5.5 0 0 0 5.5 2012 2013 0 1.1 1.4 4.7 35.8 8.8 0 51.8 2013 2014 0 0.2 5.4 24.8 23.9 3.2 0 57.5 2014 2015 0 0 0.3 22.8 15.2 23.9 0 62.2 2015 2016 0 0 Trace 18.8 14.3 2.7 0.1 35.9 2016 2017 0 0 4.1 14.3 15.8 7.9 0 42.1 2017 2018 0 0 7.4 21.2 1.3 21 4.3 55.2 If you look at our odds of a big year for each individual year, it's low. But we do live in a region where big snows can happen. So even though I would say don't expect much, you can hope/dream that we get one of those rare years. https://www.webberweather.com/about.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 2 hours ago, AsheCounty48 said: If it gives you any confidence, Robert is a full Gung-Ho on the pattern getting cold for someone in the east mid month. Robert's bullish bias is probably near 80%. Good met and nice guy. But he definitely has a bias toward cold. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 2 hours ago, AsheCounty48 said: If it gives you any confidence, Robert is a full Gung-Ho on the pattern getting cold for someone in the east mid month. That gets me almost as excited as when JB goes all in on cold and snow! Which I think he just did a few days back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Long way out but the last euro panel is probably a significant ice storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Just now, Queencitywx said: Long way out but the last euro panel is probably a significant ice storm. Yep...been a while since we have seen such a promising look at the surface. It's a shame it's so far into fantasy land but it's pretty to look at meteorologically at least. Wonder what the odds of it even being close to what really happens are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, Lookout said: Yep...been a while since we have seen such a promising look at the surface. It's a shame it's so far into fantasy land but it's pretty to look at meteorologically at least. Wonder what the odds of it even being close to what really happens are. 1043 MB high will get the job done. On second look, I think It’s probably more sleet and snow across NC with the ice across SC and NE GA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Well, everyone always says you need a good snowpack to sustain the cold air... Top GIF is the more recent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 What a difference a day makes. Suddenly, everyone is starting to honk about an upcoming mid month snow and ice chance for the Carolinas northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: What a difference a day makes. Suddenly, everyone is starting to honk about an upcoming mid month snow and ice chance for the Carolinas northward. It's what happens as soon as something shows up in the LR. No one worries about patterns or trends. It's all doom and gloom until they actually see pink purple and blue on a computer map at hour 384 that the idea that we are entering winter weather season and there will be threats materializes in people's heads! But I regress, not a bad pattern at all. No prolonged torches or SE highs. Decent cold shots seemingly weekly. A BN November. Heck, it's December 3rd and the mood on this board feels like it's February 3rd and most places are still waiting on their first flakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: It's what happens as soon as something shows up in the LR. No one worries about patterns or trends. It's all doom and gloom until they actually see pink purple and blue on a computer map at hour 384 that the idea that we are entering winter weather season and there will be threats materializes in people's heads! But I regress, not a bad pattern at all. No prolonged torches or SE highs. Decent cold shots seemingly weekly. A BN November. Heck, it's December 3rd and the mood on this board feels like it's February 3rd and most places are still waiting on their first flakes! The mood on WX Twitter today is very chipper and buzzy for those in the Eastern half of the U.S. Let's hope it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 WARNING: Depiction may appear SNOWIER and LESS ICY than verification. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 World Climate Service @WorldClimateSvc I'm sure others have noted that the November pattern from North America to Europe was very similar to the historical precursor for strongly negative NAO winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 I think the December’02 ice storm , was picked up 7+ days out, it’s not impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 bob chill had a nice catch with what looked like the transfer happening near Savannah in that final panel. If that happens it’s snow-ice-snow for lots of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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