FLweather Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 12z and 18z nam show very brief zr chances with Friday/Saturday system. Mainly north and along I85/I77. Upstate SC and NC. Before temps rise to the lovely 33-34 cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 2 hours ago, FLweather said: 12z and 18z nam show very brief zr chances with Friday/Saturday system. Mainly north and along I85/I77. Upstate SC and NC. Before temps rise to the lovely 33-34 cold rain. We're really good at getting 33 and rain. But honestly, for this time of year a cool rainy forecast is fine. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 wow, this isn't like the old days, I keep looking to see what the future may look like from the computers but no one is chiming in with anything, even if its eye candy some discussion is better than none. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 20 minutes ago, Tacoma said: wow, this isn't like the old days, I keep looking to see what the future may look like from the computers but no one is chiming in with anything, even if its eye candy some discussion is better than none. I think we're all just being cautious and denying ourselves any excitement. "Wolf" has been cried too many times and the models have been too unreliable beyond a couple of days. We pretty much have to wait until cold is happening and snow is falling to have any confidence these days (unless you're over 3000 ft). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Going to be a rough weekend on the coast... US National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 4 hrs · A powerful storm system will take shape off the Carolina Coast this weekend, bringing a variety of significant coastal impacts, including major coastal flooding, beach erosion, and strong winds. https://www.weather.gov/media/mhx/LatestBriefing.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 2 hours ago, Solak said: Going to be a rough weekend on the coast... US National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 4 hrs · A powerful storm system will take shape off the Carolina Coast this weekend, bringing a variety of significant coastal impacts, including major coastal flooding, beach erosion, and strong winds.https://www.weather.gov/media/mhx/LatestBriefing.pdf They are predicting wind gusts in excess of 40 mph Saturday and Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Not to jinx it, but the GFS looks extremely solid this last run for weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Bret Walts @BretWaltsWx · 3m GEFS is going full steam ahead for big cold again towards the end of November. This is likely in part driven by MJO propagation into colder phases 8-1-2. Some of our top tropical analogs support the GEFS idea. Better get used to the cold. #Energy #NatGas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Tony Pann @TonyPannWBAL · 53m It's 2 weeks until Thanksgiving. So what is a good way to do a long range guess at the weather around the Holiday? Answer: MJO. Both the Euro and GFS ensembles have the MJO going into Phase 8 by the 27th-28th. That usually means colder than normal temps for the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 2 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Bret Walts @BretWaltsWx · 3m GEFS is going full steam ahead for big cold again towards the end of November. This is likely in part driven by MJO propagation into colder phases 8-1-2. Some of our top tropical analogs support the GEFS idea. Better get used to the cold. #Energy #NatGas I was thinking that pink and green must be some BIG TIME cold until I saw the scale; green is only -3 c Still, I'll take below normal anyway and anytime I can get it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 7 hours ago, Tacoma said: wow, this isn't like the old days, I keep looking to see what the future may look like from the computers but no one is chiming in with anything, even if its eye candy some discussion is better than none. It's only mid-November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 00z NAM and 00z RGEM both bring a lot of precip inland on Saturday into NC, while a very strong 1039'ish HP drops into the lakes and NE. It's at least interesting. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 7 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: I was thinking that pink and green must be some BIG TIME cold until I saw the scale; green is only -3 c Still, I'll take below normal anyway and anytime I can get it! I thought the same thing. It's a misleading tactic designed to be click bait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 I would generally trust the NAM with this sort of scenario but I can’t find anything similar on any other model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 13 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I would generally trust the NAM with this sort of scenario but I can’t find anything similar on any other model 3K not nearly as impressed. The WRF ARW2 (as if the ARW1 isn't bad enough, so they needed a second one) is similar to the 12k NAM. The GFS, CMC, RGEM, HRDPS, etc. are all out on this one. Good thing is, if the latest LR data is right, we'll probably be able to legit start tracking stuff in a couple of weeks. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 The GFS has 925mb winds up to 65-72 knots offshore from Cape Fear and Cape Hatteras. The GFS 42-hour forecast shown here. These winds would be about 700m or 2300 ft above sea level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 18z nam shifted the precip east. Will be interesting to follow tonight/tomorrow as the wedge builds in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 Gonna be fun chasing end of model runs blocking all winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Gonna be fun chasing end of model runs blocking all winter! We’re doing this already? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Looks like the 12z Ukie is bringing that cutoff energy in the SW through here around day 6. Low right through the upstate of SC with good rain totals,0z Euro cuts the low through Ohio with rain as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 8 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said: Looks like the 12z Ukie is bringing that cutoff energy in the SW through here around day 6. Low right through the upstate of SC with good rain totals,0z Euro cuts the low through Ohio with rain as well. Hi nc. Will you do your mjo updates and where it currently is and where it going? You are very knowledgeable on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 11 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said: Looks like the 12z Ukie is bringing that cutoff energy in the SW through here around day 6. Low right through the upstate of SC with good rain totals,0z Euro cuts the low through Ohio with rain as well. I've been noticing a potential system on the variations of models. Details not set in stone for sure. Wouldn't rule out a southern slider being one solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 Judah Cohen: the possibility of a significant #PolarVortex displacement increasing for mid-December, I believe one analog for winter 2019/20 moves to the head of the class. Read which one and my reasoning in the latest blog: https://t.co/FilGD8XG8Z https://t.co/1oRX0XNyzH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 Atleast the SSW is being talked about 2 months earlier than normal, maybe we get winte weather 2 months earlier this year, like February?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 Could be headed for our second below average November. The November average at KGSP is 52.4 degress F. November 2018 had an average of 47.8 degrees. So far in 2019, we are averaging 47.7. BTW... the record November low at KGSP is 11 degrees set on consecutive days in 1950. The lowest monthly average was 43.2 in 1901. https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=gsp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Am I reading things wrong or is there a little torch near/after Thanksgiving, then cold beginning that weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 21 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Am I reading things wrong or is there a little torch near/after Thanksgiving, then cold beginning that weekend? Looks like there would be some stout ridging ahead of a really deep trough that tries to push in some arctic air. The push doesn't look as strong as it did a couple runs ago, so need to keep watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 ^^Yeah not sure how everything's going to evolve. For Thanksgiving day, the GFS and euro would have below normal temps over a good portion of the SE; owing mainly to a CAD. The Canadian doesn't see this and is showing 60s/70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 On 11/19/2019 at 9:54 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Ha...Now that winter kinda looked like what we had in 2015-15: Extreme blowtorch and a Christmas in the upper 60s/low 70s...and then an epic Blizzard in January. (That's why I was kinda excited when I saw that record because I wondered if the 70 degree Christmas in a strong niño correlation was gonna hold true again--because it also happened in 1982-83!) feb 83 all of 77/78 good years to be a kidl. 10 yr old me remembers cnj thundersnow in feb 83 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 6 hours ago, LurkerBoy said: Am I reading things wrong or is there a little torch near/after Thanksgiving, then cold beginning that weekend? Looks pretty boring for the next two weeks. Warming up over the week one period, that cooling but no cold. Too much rain showing up in my two week and not a single freeze. Hoping for a better pattern after mid Dec... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts