Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

[WinstonSalemArlington]

2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Hope y’all N.C. peeps are as lucky with your analfrontal snow , as you are at clippers!

That sounds dirty.

[Jessy89]

Hope y’all N.C. peeps are as lucky with your analfrontal snow , as you are at clippers!

Us here in upstate just have to wait. Our snow will come.


.

[FLweather]

44 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

That sounds dirty.

Its anafrontal. 

Mack just hating. He has had plenty of time to leave the Deserts of SC. The great Sahara of the Appalachians. 

[drfranklin]

1 hour ago, FLweather said:

...Mack just hating. He has had plenty of time to leave the Deserts of SC. The great Sahara of the Appalachian...

this winter description is exact - downsloping kills us - part of my youth was spent in Nashville, TN - remember many Alberta clippers - miss that

the only winter salvation for Upstate SC is CAD - we have experienced some fantastic CAD winter events

 

[PackGrad05]

The EURO is consistent with a little novelty snow for central NC on Tuesday evening...  GFS isn't buying it right now.  (as of saturday night)

[Iceagewhereartthou]

4 hours ago, drfranklin said:

this winter description is exact - downsloping kills us - part of my youth was spent in Nashville, TN - remember many Alberta clippers - miss that

the only winter salvation for Upstate SC is CAD - we have experienced some fantastic CAD winter events

 

Unfortunately CAD events have become too weak, in general, and usually result in more sleet than snow. We used to get more overrunning event (Miller A type) snows but those have completely disappeared. The last one I can recall was Jan 2011, whcih was a nice one, but that's a ways in the rear view mirror. Our only other hope, upper level lows (March 2009) just haven't worked out and generally seem to suffer from warm boundary layers that limit accrual (see March 2009 again). In short, the upstate is an awfully tough place to see a good snow anymore. 

[drfranklin]

7 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Unfortunately CAD events have become too weak, in general, and usually result in more sleet than snow. We used to get more overrunning event (Miller A type) snows but those have completely disappeared. The last one I can recall was Jan 2011, whcih was a nice one, but that's a ways in the rear view mirror. Our only other hope, upper level lows (March 2009) just haven't worked out and generally seem to suffer from warm boundary layers that limit accrual (see March 2009 again). In short, the upstate is an awfully tough place to see a good snow anymore. 

I'm not native to Upstate SC - but, I've never seen so much sleet/ice in my life - I live about 2 miles north of the infamous Upstate I-85 winter dividing line - I've witnessed winter precip change from snow to sleet to rain and back in a matter of minutes!

Some memorable winter storms (as you mentioned above):

Devastating Dec 2005 Ice Storm - lived near Walhalla/Lake Keowee, SC so not significantly impacted but my SIL family (from Greenville) had to live with me for one week (due to no power/tree damage)

Thundersnow March 2009 (lived in the snow desert of Simpsonville at that time but that area was bullseye for this storm)  - last time I witnessed thundersnow was the incredible Winter Storm "93 in Alabama

Snow Storm Jan 2011 - rec'd 6+ inches (don't recall exact amount, but heavy amounts/very powdery) - then rec'd sleet/ice several days later - fantastic storm!

Back to Long Term Discussion...

Anticipating the Arctic Air for Tues/Wed and lows in the 20's - I've lived in TN/AL and will enjoy seeing family/friends experience November snow (sad no snow here, but expecting some CAD events this winter)

[eyewall]

You can definitely write off any snow Tue:

Tuesday: A cold front over the mtns Tuesday morning will quickly
advance eastward through central NC by Tuesday aft/eve. The best
chance for precipitation will be ahead of the front, with the cold
air chasing the rain out of the area. As a result, do not anticipate
any p-type issues, however rapid clearing and very strong CAA behind
the front will yield a non-diurnal temperature trend during the day
(temperatures will likely fall through the day rather than rise).

 

 

 

[NC_hailstorm]

Looks like the Ukie is going for a coastal Friday/Saturday.Cutoff looks around I-85 south but that looks cold and wet if it's right.

GFS has nothing,.

[FLweather]

8 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Looks like the Ukie is going for a coastal Friday/Saturday.Cutoff looks around I-85 south but that looks cold and wet if it's right.

GFS has nothing,.

Yup. Not much rain here in FL from it.

But developes SLP off FL coast. Drops down to 997mb as it pulls away from NC coast.

Like you said 85/75 East the cut off and greatest totals. 

[Solak]

RAH --- model problems and forecasting for NC.

That Arctic front, analyzed at 20Z this afternoon from cntl WI swwd 
to srn IA, then wnwwd across srn and wrn NE and cntl WY, will be 
preceded by an increasingly closely-spaced but separate front 
analyzed from nern OH swwd across cntl IN/IL/MO, sern KS, and the OK 
and TX panhandles. A distinction between the two is critical for two 
related reasons regarding how quickly cold, particularly Arctic air, 
arrives in cntl NC: 1) the models tend to depict hypergradients 
about such closely-spaced fronts as one and 2) how the models (fail 
to accurately) resolve the Appalachian mountains yields a premature 
Arctic air surge in the lee of the mountains. Consider the past two 
early season Arctic frontal passages in cntl NC, for example, from 
Halloween night and last Thu/Nov 7. In both cases the models rushed 
the cold air east of the Appalachians prematurely relative to 
reality. 

These model failures are one of the chief reasons that a pattern 
such as the one described above, with "cold air chasing the 
moisture", fails to produce wintry precipitation in cntl NC. 
Nevermind that it's still Nov. And it provides an opportunity for 
failure of even the best of NWP ensemble systems that depict 
accumulating snow in cntl NC, and for a human to add forecast skill 
and value. With that in mind, a band of anafrontal rain, driven by 
the right entrance region of a strong (125-150 kt) swly upr jet 
streak from the cntl Appalachians to the Labrador Sea, behind the 
lead front described above, will edge ewd across cntl NC late Mon 
night and (particularly early) Tue - in a pattern very similar to 
the band of anafrontal rain that occurred last Thu/Nov 7. The Arctic 
boundary will then sweep sewd across cntl NC through early-mid 
afternoon Tue, with following much below average temperatures, 
including teens to low-mid 20s Wed morning, and highs only in the 
upr 30s to low-mid 40s on Wed.

[FLweather]

43 minutes ago, Solak said:

RAH --- model problems and forecasting for NC.

That Arctic front, analyzed at 20Z this afternoon from cntl WI swwd 
to srn IA, then wnwwd across srn and wrn NE and cntl WY, will be 
preceded by an increasingly closely-spaced but separate front 
analyzed from nern OH swwd across cntl IN/IL/MO, sern KS, and the OK 
and TX panhandles. A distinction between the two is critical for two 
related reasons regarding how quickly cold, particularly Arctic air, 
arrives in cntl NC: 1) the models tend to depict hypergradients 
about such closely-spaced fronts as one and 2) how the models (fail 
to accurately) resolve the Appalachian mountains yields a premature 
Arctic air surge in the lee of the mountains. Consider the past two 
early season Arctic frontal passages in cntl NC, for example, from 
Halloween night and last Thu/Nov 7. In both cases the models rushed 
the cold air east of the Appalachians prematurely relative to 
reality. 

These model failures are one of the chief reasons that a pattern 
such as the one described above, with "cold air chasing the 
moisture", fails to produce wintry precipitation in cntl NC. 
Nevermind that it's still Nov. And it provides an opportunity for 
failure of even the best of NWP ensemble systems that depict 
accumulating snow in cntl NC, and for a human to add forecast skill 
and value. With that in mind, a band of anafrontal rain, driven by 
the right entrance region of a strong (125-150 kt) swly upr jet 
streak from the cntl Appalachians to the Labrador Sea, behind the 
lead front described above, will edge ewd across cntl NC late Mon 
night and (particularly early) Tue - in a pattern very similar to 
the band of anafrontal rain that occurred last Thu/Nov 7. The Arctic 
boundary will then sweep sewd across cntl NC through early-mid 
afternoon Tue, with following much below average temperatures, 
including teens to low-mid 20s Wed morning, and highs only in the 
upr 30s to low-mid 40s on Wed.

I disagree. This looks like a anafrontal event.  Granted not much. 

But looking at the models.  A Lee side trough is present before the moisture and front.

I may eat my words. But Tuesday will be a interesting day. I do think places such as Greensboro towards Roxboro  and potential coastal plain regions will see a slop mixture. 

 

It's been highly evident that this setup is anafrontal.  Due to the Lee side trough. 

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Solak said:

RAH --- model problems and forecasting for NC.

That Arctic front, analyzed at 20Z this afternoon from cntl WI swwd 
to srn IA, then wnwwd across srn and wrn NE and cntl WY, will be 
preceded by an increasingly closely-spaced but separate front 
analyzed from nern OH swwd across cntl IN/IL/MO, sern KS, and the OK 
and TX panhandles. A distinction between the two is critical for two 
related reasons regarding how quickly cold, particularly Arctic air, 
arrives in cntl NC: 1) the models tend to depict hypergradients 
about such closely-spaced fronts as one and 2) how the models (fail 
to accurately) resolve the Appalachian mountains yields a premature 
Arctic air surge in the lee of the mountains. Consider the past two 
early season Arctic frontal passages in cntl NC, for example, from 
Halloween night and last Thu/Nov 7. In both cases the models rushed 
the cold air east of the Appalachians prematurely relative to 
reality. 

These model failures are one of the chief reasons that a pattern 
such as the one described above, with "cold air chasing the 
moisture", fails to produce wintry precipitation in cntl NC. 
Nevermind that it's still Nov. And it provides an opportunity for 
failure of even the best of NWP ensemble systems that depict 
accumulating snow in cntl NC, and for a human to add forecast skill 
and value. With that in mind, a band of anafrontal rain, driven by 
the right entrance region of a strong (125-150 kt) swly upr jet 
streak from the cntl Appalachians to the Labrador Sea, behind the 
lead front described above, will edge ewd across cntl NC late Mon 
night and (particularly early) Tue - in a pattern very similar to 
the band of anafrontal rain that occurred last Thu/Nov 7. The Arctic 
boundary will then sweep sewd across cntl NC through early-mid 
afternoon Tue, with following much below average temperatures, 
including teens to low-mid 20s Wed morning, and highs only in the 
upr 30s to low-mid 40s on Wed.

I was coming here to post the exact same thing.  A good explanation of why we so often fail.

I wonder what it is about the Appalachians that make it so hard to resolve.

[Brick Tamland]

Well, the NAM is either drunk or a genius. 

[SENC]

Drunk & on crack.. 

[Brick Tamland]

GFS looking better this time, too.

[Snowy Hibbo]

Hey guys, here is my final seasonal forecast for North America that includes forecasts for the entire continent including down in the SE.

I favour average-mildly above average snowfall for the Carolinas and better further inland you go as well.

https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/11/10/north-american-winter-outlook-2019-20/

 

 

In terms of your short-term forecast, I can only offer the latest in the EC model, that doesn’t look bad.

It’s all subject to minor mesoscale trends inevitably, which will pinpoint exact snowfall amounts and locations  

[eyewall]

[superjames1992]

I don’t like our chances with this setup.  And even if we did see flakes, they will be meaningless flurries.  Then again, I haven’t seen any flakes fall from the sky since our historic dusting of snow in Tallahassee in January 2018, so I better take what I can get, LOL.

[gman]

14 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

I don’t like our chances with this setup.  And even if we did see flakes, they will be meaningless flurries.  Then again, I haven’t seen any flakes fall from the sky since our historic dusting of snow in Tallahassee in January 2018, so I better take what I can get, LOL.

In the Upstate of S.C., there no such a thing as "meaningless" flurries. 

[strongwxnc]

In the Upstate of S.C., there no such a thing as "meaningless" flurries. 

Was about to say the same thing.


.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Beastly windchills Coming 

 

[Brick Tamland]

2 hours ago, superjames1992 said:

I don’t like our chances with this setup.  And even if we did see flakes, they will be meaningless flurries.  Then again, I haven’t seen any flakes fall from the sky since our historic dusting of snow in Tallahassee in January 2018, so I better take what I can get, LOL.

If anyone in the SE sees any snow at all falling in November, it should be counted as a win. 

[olafminesaw]

Seems plausible 

[Brick Tamland]

GFS ensemble mean showing pretty much everyone in NC seeing snow. 

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

4 hours ago, gman said:

In the Upstate of S.C., there no such a thing as "meaningless" flurries. 

I understand your point but token flurries, or even a shower with no accumulation, does little for me. If it doesn't accumulate it's more of a tease; kinda like the hot girl making you think you have a chance when you don't.

 

[olafminesaw]

[Brick Tamland]

NAM showing snow for most of NC. 

 

[Solak]

RAH - For Thur/Fri

In terms of p-type Thursday night into 
Friday...right now it looks like there's simply not enough cold air 
involved with this system to warrant concern for anything other than 
rain, esp given that the coldest air and northern stream is detached 
and located well to our north while the aforementioned closed low is 
moving across the Carolinas.  However and as always...we'll continue 
to closely monitor trends in the guidance.  

[NCSU_Pi]

22 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

NAM showing snow for most of NC.

OK, Nammer