JoshM Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 18z Clown Map... For entertainment purposes only 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 As always, it would be nice to see a trend of the southern wave a little stronger/slower to allow the HP to build in. Still in a range where that's not a far cry from happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Last time we saw appreciable November snow was 13-14, which is one of the best winters I can remember since 2000. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 I would find it hilarious if even one token snowflake was sited ~ 6 weeks after we hit 100 F at RDU. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 As of this morning (Thursday), it looks like both the GFS and ECMWF have lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 13 hours ago, Wow said: As always, it would be nice to see a trend of the southern wave a little stronger/slower to allow the HP to build in. Still in a range where that's not a far cry from happening. Welp, the 6z run was quite slower and stronger with the wave... but moved the HP out too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 1 hour ago, Wow said: Welp, the 6z run was quite slower and stronger with the wave... but moved the HP out too quickly. b But man if that High could hang out at the same location as shown at HR 174.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 1 hour ago, Wow said: Welp, the 6z run was quite slower and stronger with the wave... but moved the HP out too quickly. Not going to lie, this far out it looks like the players are on the board. That is an optimal SE winter storm low track and there is cold air available. For Mid-November, that is as much as you can ask for at this point. This is definitely something worth tracking atm. Keep in mind, this is more than a week out. I wish this setup was a month from now! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Not going to lie, this far out it looks like the players are on the board. That is an optimal SE winter storm low track and there is cold air available. For Mid-November, that is as much as you can ask for at this point. This is definitely something worth tracking atm. Keep in mind, this is more than a week out. I wish this setup was a month from now! Yep. That month can make the difference between a 35º rain and a 33º rain. 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 LOL...is this where someone needs to say 'Start a thread' lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 5 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Not going to lie, this far out it looks like the players are on the board. That is an optimal SE winter storm low track and there is cold air available. For Mid-November, that is as much as you can ask for at this point. This is definitely something worth tracking atm. Keep in mind, this is more than a week out. I wish this setup was a month from now! The 12th to 15th period has been looking interesting since Monday. First, it looked like we might have a shot on the 12th, then the 14th, and now this looks like the 15th. Anything we see now in terms of winter weather, even if it's just a few flakes and no accumulation, would be awesome since we're just entering the middle of November. Hope this is a sign of good things to come this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 RAH is waiting for more model consistency. A low pressure center passing across Canada will have a cold front that extends all the way south into Texas Monday morning, and as the front moves east, another wave of low pressure will develop along the front. The new low will form over Washington DC and move east by Tuesday morning. The front should be across eastern North Carolina at that time, but the precipitation will mostly trail the front. The GFS, GEFS, and ECMWF have all struggled with this system over the last two days, with each model flipping back and forth with the timing of the precipitation as well as the amount. Today it's the GFS's turn to go with a mostly dry frontal passage, while the ECMWF has been consistent across its last two runs showing precipitation mostly during the day. As a result, made very little change to this part of the forecast until models can come up with some sort of consistency. The frontal passage will occur Monday night, followed by precipitation Tuesday, followed by another round of colder air Tuesday night and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Solak said: RAH is waiting for more model consistency. A low pressure center passing across Canada will have a cold front that extends all the way south into Texas Monday morning, and as the front moves east, another wave of low pressure will develop along the front. The new low will form over Washington DC and move east by Tuesday morning. The front should be across eastern North Carolina at that time, but the precipitation will mostly trail the front. The GFS, GEFS, and ECMWF have all struggled with this system over the last two days, with each model flipping back and forth with the timing of the precipitation as well as the amount. Today it's the GFS's turn to go with a mostly dry frontal passage, while the ECMWF has been consistent across its last two runs showing precipitation mostly during the day. As a result, made very little change to this part of the forecast until models can come up with some sort of consistency. The frontal passage will occur Monday night, followed by precipitation Tuesday, followed by another round of colder air Tuesday night and beyond. With the way the models have been flipping back and forth like they said, it's probably best to just wait and see until we get closer. Euro showed potential first, then the GFS came along and really increased totals while the Euro decreased potential, and now we're back to the Euro showing more potential than the GFS again. And we'll probably see more back and forth and swamping since we're still a week out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 This event will be the appetizer, for the big dog in April! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 18 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: This event will be the appetizer, for the big dog in April! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 GFS and EURO both showing a decent coastal low next weekend. Too warm for wintry precip, but hey, it's something to track EURO Sunday, GFS Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, Solak said: GFS and EURO both showing a decent coastal low next weekend. Too warm for wintry precip, but hey, it's something to track EURO Sunday, GFS Friday. Ya never know with a CAD, somone could get some frozen on the front end, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 36 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Ya never know with a CAD, somone could get some frozen on the front end, Will probably end up dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Euro looking interesting again. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 That really isn't a LP track we want to see outside the mountains. We want it more offshore. Running inland isn't going to work. And that it's November and not mid-January certainly doesn't do us any favors, either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, superjames1992 said: That really isn't a LP track we want to see outside the mountains. We want it more offshore. Running inland isn't going to work. And that it's November and not mid-January certainly doesn't do us any favors, either. Yet for November, still an appetizer... Models are still bouncing around the LP, so it should still could shunt further offshore IF the high stays a bit longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Ya’ll stressing a possibility in early November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 From the GSP NWS discussion, for late next week. “The forecast becomes very complex late in the period with significant uncertainty and guaranteed changes in the days to come as another strong shortwave trough marches east across the eastern CONUS while a closed-low finally ejects from the Desert Southwest and interacts with the northern-stream energy as it approaches the Southeast.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 18z GFS - What storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 19 minutes ago, Solak said: 18z GFS - What storm? It is still there but it ejects east of Florida. Nothing for us. We will see what tomorrow brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 15 minutes ago, yotaman said: It is still there but it ejects east of Florida. Nothing for us. We will see what tomorrow brings. I'll blame it on the model run . It's not doing a good job depicting the rain currently falling along the lower Gulf states from West of New Orleans to JAX. 18z shows all the rain should be in the FL peninsula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Something to watch. But 12z GFS and Nam both show strong frontogenesis with crashing 850 temps Tuesday afternoon/evening. Limited moisture. But areas around Danvile, Roxboro, Oxford(Nc, Va Piedmont) may see some slop with temps falling into the upper 30s before clearing out. Roughly 80 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Jonathan Wall: Latest on Tuesday’s system: 12z Euro with a Trace-1” for favored NC Piedmont areas, Durham County and north & west midday Tues. Timing is far from ideal (changeover ~2pm-3pm for Wake) making a November snow even harder to come by. Worth watching for a quick mid-day dusting. #ncwx https://t.co/UBj0kzpx0n Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 For the Friday system ... RAH Medium-range models indicate a weak shortwave trough swinging through the area Thursday/Friday, however there is a good deal of uncertainty regarding the strength of the wave and whether it will generate any precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Hope y’all N.C. peeps are as lucky with your analfrontal snow , as you are at clippers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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