BornAgain13 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Looking very good for a widespread beneficial rain tonight/tomorrow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Looking at overnight and morning modeling, the potential system in the gulf, regardless of development, looks like it could bring a widespread beneficial rain to the area. Outside of a few areas east of the Triangle, this has been an underwhelming tropical rainfall season, obviously, and these systems are the ones we rely on during the dry summer months so if we can get this thing in the region I suspect some areas can make a good dent in recent rainfall deficits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 12z Ukie is bringing the hammer Sunday for eastern parts of NC/SC.Gulf low right up the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 36 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: 12z Ukie is bringing the hammer Sunday for eastern parts of NC/SC.Gulf low right up the coast. I'm grateful for the rain we got today, but we need a good soaker to fill some of these ponds... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 6z NAM continues to show some nice rains over the SE. The 6z GFS has joined the party and has shifted its precip shield farther west to give many in Ga, SC, and NC good amounts (~1" from Atlanta - Greenville - Charlotte - RDU) . Sharp cutoffs going into S.VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 Looking ahead to Tuesday... RAH QPF is anemic on the latest model runs and the trends have been going in that direction in the last several runs. We will carry a chance of showers, but QPF will be limited to most likely less than 0.10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Halloween is getting closer (within reasonable model range). Looking like the kids will be wearing coats over the costumes. 6z GFS at ~ Trick or Treating time (next morning many areas below freezing): 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 I'm getting married outdoors in Asheville on Nov 4th...how's it looking for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 1 hour ago, NCsandhills said: I'm getting married outdoors in Asheville on Nov 4th...how's it looking for me? Too far ahead to tell but congratulations on getting married. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 5 hours ago, NCsandhills said: I'm getting married outdoors in Asheville on Nov 4th...how's it looking for me? Bank on it. Snow on the wedding day is abundant good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Wow, the storm this weekend has really trended west, towards the Euro solution, on the GFS from earlier runs this week. What looked like a washout may end up no rain at all in central NC. It does however stall out the boundary and re-form precipitation over the area early next week. Definitely trending towards an amped low in the MS valley for the system this weekend though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 28 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Wow, the storm this weekend has really trended west, towards the Euro solution, on the GFS from earlier runs this week. What looked like a washout may end up no rain at all in central NC. It does however stall out the boundary and re-form precipitation over the area early next week. Definitely trending towards an amped low in the MS valley for the system this weekend though What about temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 GFS sucks nuts! My 4 inches of rain is now down to sprinkles this weekend! Droughtbuster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jessy89 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 I don’t expect the GFS to be accurate this winter either . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 1 hour ago, Jessy89 said: I don’t expect the GFS to be accurate this winter either . Wont stop the yootoobers from using it for clickbait though. Halloween is looking a bit nipply though and I think the GFS at least has that cold shot right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted October 24, 2019 Author Share Posted October 24, 2019 3 hours ago, kvegas-wx said: Wont stop the yootoobers from using it for clickbait though. Halloween is looking a bit nipply though and I think the GFS at least has that cold shot right. “Did I say nipply?” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 20 hours ago, kvegas-wx said: Wont stop the yootoobers from using it for clickbait though. Halloween is looking a bit nipply though and I think the GFS at least has that cold shot right. The new GFS has is cold bias. We need to be in closer range before we know for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 On 10/23/2019 at 2:39 PM, Solak said: Are they talking about a snow forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 I just want our first freeze.. Looks like we are going to be behind schedule in Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 15 hours ago, PackGrad05 said: I just want our first freeze.. Looks like we are going to be behind schedule in Raleigh. Our 1st frost came on Nov 20 last year. I am hoping it comes a bit earlier this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 Euro and GFS agreeing on a strong Greenland block for early Nov Euro @ 240 GFS @ 240 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 13 hours ago, Wow said: Euro and GFS agreeing on a strong Greenland block for early Nov Euro @ 240 GFS @ 240 Would be nice but I honestly can't buy it, I think I've become a complete cynic when it comes to cold around here. I think this winter will end up a repeat of last year without the early Dec storm. We've been above average for so long it doesn't seem like there's any pattern that can deliver below normal for more than a random day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 18 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Would be nice but I honestly can't buy it, I think I've become a complete cynic when it comes to cold around here. I think this winter will end up a repeat of last year without the early Dec storm. We've been above average for so long it doesn't seem like there's any pattern that can deliver below normal for more than a random day or two. I agree with your overall point, but less than two years ago we had a generational 10-day cold spell in NC at least. We've had three or four equivalent warm spells though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 I remember RDU went multiple days without getting above 32.. it was crazy. Couple years ago I think. The pond behind my house froze more solid than I've ever seen it! (and it rarely freezes as it is) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said: I remember RDU went multiple days without getting above 32.. it was crazy. Couple years ago I think. The pond behind my house froze more solid than I've ever seen it! (and it rarely freezes as it is) It was at the tail end of December 2017 and the beginning of January 2018. RDU set their record for most consecutive hours below 32F: Just under 10 days. Some areas of the Pamlico/Albemarle sounds froze. Got down to 0 F at my house in Wilson, which is quite an accomplishment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 I think we may have a chance at our first freeze Monday morning. Given a favorable HP placement, light winds, and low DP this is a VERY favorable setup for maximum radiational cooling. Most models over-do nighttime temps at this range in these setups as well. This wouldn't be much behind our long terms average first freeze, either. Would be interesting to get a freeze before a frost if that came to fruition! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 Has anyone checked out the forecast discussion for this week? GSP is using some pretty ominous wording for this front on Thursday. Looks like it could get nasty.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 1 hour ago, ryan1234 said: Has anyone checked out the forecast discussion for this week? GSP is using some pretty ominous wording for this front on Thursday. Looks like it could get nasty. . Yeah, Thursday is looking spooky! But a lot can change in 3-4 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Random but does anyone else think Halloween is a storm magnet holiday? Seems the days surrounding 10/31 almost always feature something interesting. Wouldn't be surprised if plateau counties in my state see some wrap around flurry action. Even if there's phantom in nature...par for the course given the timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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