FallsLake Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 So for many of us, Friday is the transition day. The front will come through early in the day, The farther north you are in the SE, the earlier you'll see the cool down (..or dew point drop). Specifically for RDU, we'll see dew points drop from the mid 60s early in the day to mid 50s by 6pm. High temps will still reach the mid 80s but drop into the upper 70s with the lower dew points by 6pm (..it'll be a nice evening for a walk). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 The cool down is going to be amazeballs and all, but now let’s get some moisture on this parched earth! GSP total rainfall for September was .16, 3rd driest on record! With about 26 days out of 30, seeing highs of 90-98, a very brutal month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 Forecast has changed a little for here. They took next week's chance of showers out. Another week of dryness looms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 Is it too early to start looking for a fantasy -NAO? From the CPC 8 - 14 day forecast. One feature being closely monitored is the potential for ridge development over the North Atlantic south of Greenland (shown by the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles). Should this feature develop, this would teleconnect well with increased troughing across much of the Eastern CONUS. Nothing could go wrong here could it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 11 hours ago, cbmclean said: Is it too early to start looking for a fantasy -NAO? From the CPC 8 - 14 day forecast. One feature being closely monitored is the potential for ridge development over the North Atlantic south of Greenland (shown by the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles). Should this feature develop, this would teleconnect well with increased troughing across much of the Eastern CONUS. Nothing could go wrong here could it? I personally think this would be a great time (moving towards winter) for a trough pattern to set up across the east. I've always been in the camp of (wanting a) east coast trough in early/mid October, ridging from late October into mid November, and then a trough pattern in late November / early December. My thinking is the pattern that occurs around Thanksgiving can be a signal for the winter. This goes along with our past (half) joking about not wanting a Halloween storm or SC November snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 Looks like things get warm/ AA again!!! When do we see prolonged cool weather ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 Doesn't look too bad. Mainly 70s with a few days of 80s thrown in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 8 hours ago, LurkerBoy said: Looks like things get warm/ AA again!!! When do we see prolonged cool weather ? January, if prolonged is 2 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted October 7, 2019 Author Share Posted October 7, 2019 Seeing some highs in the upper 20's this week in the northern Rockies and northern plains for the first time this fall. Hopefully the we see a flip in the troughing and the death of the SER soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 Like a broken record, SE ridging keeps the storm track above us with coastal development too far offshore to get significant rain into the lee of the Apps. This has the markings of a significant drought for much of the Southeast. The areas of severe drought have continued to expand. With no significant change in sight, I would look for that to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 Still no drought relief on the 12z GFS but man is that a stout trough digging in at the end of the run! Would be our first chance at frost in some areas if taken verbatim... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 9 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Like a broken record, SE ridging keeps the storm track above us with coastal development too far offshore to get significant rain into the lee of the Apps. This has the markings of a significant drought for much of the Southeast. The areas of severe drought have continued to expand. With no significant change in sight, I would look for that to continue. 18z looks different 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Looks promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 4 hours ago, gman said: Looks promising. Personally I would love this outcome. But man that is a skinny strip of precip. One shift south or north and I'm crying the blues while others are celebrating. **wish it was more widespread... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Euro at day 5/6 looks better today but we need a couple more ticks NW to get the mountains/foothills a little more.Let's hope this chance works out this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Euro at day 5/6 looks better today but we need a couple more ticks NW to get the mountains/foothills a little more.Let's hope this chance works out this time. Perfect! We're already anticipating the NW shift. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 20 minutes ago, calculus1 said: Perfect! We're already anticipating the NW shift. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk Haha if this was a winter storm this map would be right where you'd want it the triad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 12z Euro delivers,ticking totals further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Fall is coming! Starting to look chilly as we roll towards Halloween. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 On 10/10/2019 at 4:54 PM, gman said: Looks promising. Looked promising! Rain fail! All models show me getting .10-.25 total! What might have been!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 On 10/11/2019 at 3:32 PM, NC_hailstorm said: 12z Euro delivers,ticking totals further NW. Yep, king Euro! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 GFS WHAT ARE YOU ON FOR HALLOWEEN?!?!Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 25 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: GFS WHAT ARE YOU ON FOR HALLOWEEN?!?! Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk That wouldn't be surprising for the higher elevations, but for Kentucky that would be a little early. The nice thing is we're in a totally different world from two weeks back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 That wouldn't be surprising for the higher elevations, but for Kentucky that would be a little early. The nice thing is we're in a totally different world from two weeks back. Here are the dewpoints...Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 RAH used the frost word. They're highlighting "normally colder locations"; which I'm not. But maybe places in central/eastern NC like Sanford, Roxboro, and even Rocky Mount could see something. .LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/... As of 224 PM Tuesday... Quiet, cooler weather in store for central NC Thursday through Saturday, and even dry weather most of Sunday. The main weather story during this time will be temperatures, with a cold Canadian high settling over the Carolinas by Friday morning. While Thursday morning will see lows in the lower 40s, it will be even chillier Friday morning with lows in the upper 30s possible, and even a few patches of frost possible in the normally colder locations. Otherwise, look for gradually moderating trend over the weekend as the high moves off to our east. The next noteworthy wx system will be a plume of tropical moisture progged to lift NE out of the GOM and cross the Carolinas early Monday morning through the day Monday. That will provide the first of two rain opportunities early next week. The second rain opportunity will be associated with a cold front progged to cross the area on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted October 15, 2019 Author Share Posted October 15, 2019 As someone else, said "what a difference a couple of weeks makes." After this week's cool shot, looks some more cooler weather next week and around Halloween plus some rain opportunities too. Love seeing the "Below Average Temp. Forecast" for the SE. I'll take it after that brutal September!!! https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 18z GFS popping a gulf low and bringit up the coast. Perfect snowstorm track if it were DJF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jessy89 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Anyone else notice the coldest air of season around Halloween. Potential for 20s as far south as upstate S.C. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Last couple HRRR runs looking better for the GSP -CLT-GSO-RDU corrider putting down .75'' -1.00'' in 8 to 18 hours.Sharp cutoff on both sides with only a few tenths so we'll see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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