Orangeburgwx Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 I didn’t expect to hit 96, with only around 12 hours of sun! I guess when the ground has turned hard as concrete, cracked and parched, there’s no soil moisture whatsoever left to retard heating! I guess September record heat is better than October snow!? But I’m sure we can still pull it off! Consider yourself lucky, on board temp on my mom's truck as I headed to work was 101...Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Dust off the skivvies!!! RAH says: For those looking for cooler weather, next weekend could be a breath of fresh air as a legitimate cold front looks to push through the area and possibly bring temperatures to below normal values for early October. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 11 hours ago, kvegas-wx said: I dont see how it cannot cool down. Shorter days quickly limiting heating, sun angle getting lower to reduce efficiency of heating, and there's going to be 4 feet of snow on the ground along the Canadian border! Look at the bright side, if this keeps up we may be on the firing line for some epic winter storm tracks! Epic winter storm tracks that still manage to produce rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 2 hours ago, Solak said: Dust off the skivvies!!! RAH says: For those looking for cooler weather, next weekend could be a breath of fresh air as a legitimate cold front looks to push through the area and possibly bring temperatures to below normal values for early October. "It's a hoax, I suggest we all leave." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 3 hours ago, Waiting on snow said: Epic winter storm tracks that still manage to produce rain? Lol!! I said "may". I'm covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 28, 2019 Share Posted September 28, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted September 28, 2019 Share Posted September 28, 2019 54 minutes ago, Wow said: Seems like this has been look for the past few years now; unwavering. We just can't buy an eastern trough anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 28, 2019 Share Posted September 28, 2019 I'll take 70s and 50s year round with the occasional 4" snow mixed in. Fine by me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 28, 2019 Share Posted September 28, 2019 Next weekend, fall truly begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 28, 2019 Share Posted September 28, 2019 I don't know^^, models are definitely showing a cool down for the end of next week. The average may not be too far below normal but at least it'll be below normal. The GFS would have highs in the 60s with lows ~50 a couple of days. With all the heat we've had, that's something to get excited about.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 On 9/19/2019 at 9:45 AM, NorthHillsWx said: Hopefully a wet pattern starts soon. Not seeing much hope on the models. Keep checking back hoping for a change. Only good news is timing for duck season. Going into duck season it's going to be very little water (opposite of last year). Birds are going to have fewer places to go so hopefully my farm which has great beaver swamps that always hold water will have more birds as they will be less spread out and more prone to use continual sources of water, Looking at the positive of this! Rabbit season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 23 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Next weekend, fall truly begins Only temporary relief though according to the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 Best looking precip map I've seen in about 6 or 7 weeks,Euro gets wetter after day 7 dropping in a strong shortwave and lowering the heights. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 Forecast to break five record highs this week. Miserable hell continues 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 NWS GSP office has this on their AFD page - records for the coming week before the cooldown: RECORDS FOR 09-30 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 85 1981 50 1924 65 2018 30 1967 1941 1955 1897 1927 KCLT 91 1926 56 1984 72 1904 38 1888 KGSP 94 1933 59 1984 70 1954 32 1888 RECORDS FOR 10-01 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 86 1941 49 1920 65 1971 29 1895 1897 KCLT 92 1954 60 1899 72 1881 39 1899 KGSP 93 1911 61 1984 71 1971 39 1993 1947 1899 RECORDS FOR 10-02 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 1897 51 1958 65 1971 28 1895 KCLT 92 1986 52 1958 72 1986 36 1899 1954 KGSP 93 1933 50 1958 69 1941 35 1895 1884 RECORDS FOR 10-03 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 88 1954 56 1987 66 1941 23 1895 1929 KCLT 91 1986 56 1974 72 1898 36 1974 1954 1958 1883 1926 KGSP 92 1884 56 1958 70 2007 30 1974 1898 RECORDS FOR 10-04 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 86 1986 54 1921 67 1941 22 1895 KCLT 95 1954 60 1974 72 1898 33 1974 KGSP 94 1954 58 1957 72 1941 32 1974 RECORDS FOR 10-05 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 90 1941 50 1980 65 1998 29 1968 KCLT 97 1954 57 1980 73 1986 38 2014 1974 KGSP 96 1954 56 1980 70 2007 33 1974 1954 RECORDS FOR 10-06 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 90 1941 49 1932 64 2005 33 2010 1955 1974 1895 1970 KCLT 98 1954 58 1883 71 1954 38 1935 1884 KGSP 97 1954 56 1968 70 2018 39 1985 1979 1964 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 17 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: NWS GSP office has this on their AFD page - records for the coming week before the cooldown: RECORDS FOR 09-30 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 85 1981 50 1924 65 2018 30 1967 1941 1955 1897 1927 KCLT 91 1926 56 1984 72 1904 38 1888 KGSP 94 1933 59 1984 70 1954 32 1888 RECORDS FOR 10-01 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 86 1941 49 1920 65 1971 29 1895 1897 KCLT 92 1954 60 1899 72 1881 39 1899 KGSP 93 1911 61 1984 71 1971 39 1993 1947 1899 RECORDS FOR 10-02 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 1897 51 1958 65 1971 28 1895 KCLT 92 1986 52 1958 72 1986 36 1899 1954 KGSP 93 1933 50 1958 69 1941 35 1895 1884 RECORDS FOR 10-03 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 88 1954 56 1987 66 1941 23 1895 1929 KCLT 91 1986 56 1974 72 1898 36 1974 1954 1958 1883 1926 KGSP 92 1884 56 1958 70 2007 30 1974 1898 RECORDS FOR 10-04 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 86 1986 54 1921 67 1941 22 1895 KCLT 95 1954 60 1974 72 1898 33 1974 KGSP 94 1954 58 1957 72 1941 32 1974 RECORDS FOR 10-05 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 90 1941 50 1980 65 1998 29 1968 KCLT 97 1954 57 1980 73 1986 38 2014 1974 KGSP 96 1954 56 1980 70 2007 33 1974 1954 RECORDS FOR 10-06 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 90 1941 49 1932 64 2005 33 2010 1955 1974 1895 1970 KCLT 98 1954 58 1883 71 1954 38 1935 1884 KGSP 97 1954 56 1968 70 2018 39 1985 1979 1964 Wow. 1954 was a miserable early October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 Really more of a banter post but maybe you guys will indulge me. Realities that I need to learn to accept . 1. There is nothing remotely fallish about September now. It is August part deux. 2. December is a fall month (except for random episodes like our early snow last year) 3. February is a spring month. 4. The NAO/AO will be positive (except maybe in March/April). Do not believe any forecast which shows them negative for a significant period of time. 5. The SER loves me and knows what's best for me. 6. Repeat: the NAO/AO will not be negative. Do not buy into the weekly forecasts 7. Whenever models disagree, always trust the warmer one. 8. Seriously: do not expect the NAO/AO to ever go truly negative in DEC - FEB again. 9. Models will flawlessly pick-up on warm spells except they underestimate their intensity . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 5 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Really more of a banter post but maybe you guys will indulge me. Realities that I need to learn to accept . 1. There is nothing remotely fallish about September now. It is August part deux. 2. December is a fall month (except for random episodes like our early snow last year) 3. February is a spring month. 4. The NAO/AO will be positive (except maybe in March/April). Do not believe any forecast which shows them negative for a significant period of time. 5. The SER loves me and knows what's best for me. 6. Repeat: the NAO/AO will not be negative. Do not buy into the weekly forecasts 7. Whenever models disagree, always trust the warmer one. 8. Seriously: do not expect the NAO/AO to ever go truly negative in DEC - FEB again. 9. Models will flawlessly pick-up on warm spells except they underestimate their intensity . You've pretty much nailed it. At least for the upstate, and points south, we've become a 3 season area. Fall: Oct - Jan. Spring: Feb - April. Summer: May-Sept Every once in a blue moon we'll tease with cold and possibly some sleet in Dec or Jan. You might could add: 10. Any cool/cold shown on modeling is just a tease. If it actually does happen, it will get pushed back for weeks at a time. 11. A cool/cold front means it will get us back to 30 year norms for a short while so enjoy it if it happens to you. 12. Every year we're guranteed at least 2 months where we think, "Man it can't be as hot as this month last year!" And then it turns out to be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 FWIW, the Accuweather has no rain for the entire month of October. Scary thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 The 6z GFS looks to at least get most of us back to normal (..averaged through the end of the run) starting this weekend. Nothing really cold but it would be beautiful fall weather if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 Rabbit season. Duck season 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 2 hours ago, tramadoc said: Duck season Why want cold weather when we can fish year round without heavy gear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 11:50am and already tied the record high for the day of 91. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 1 hour ago, RT1980 said: Why want cold weather when we can fish year round without heavy gear? Some like cold weather and hate the heat. Some like fishing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 1 hour ago, griteater said: Some like cold weather and hate the heat. Some like fishing And some know the fish bite better on Norman the colder and nastier it is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 Promising discussion about rain next week from GSP NWS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 115 PM Monday: Starting Thursday evening after the 500mb ridge has flattened and a cold front approaching from the NW. The ECMWF has been consistent in showing a bone dry frontal passage. The GFS has been the wetter model but now shows little if any rain for our area with this front. The front should be moving through the Midlands by early Friday morning. Therefore, no influence from diurnal heating. The cooler air will make for a milder day in the mountains and still hot in the piedmont Friday but at least below record highs. The cool high pressure will be over the Great Lakes Friday afternoon and over New England Saturday afternoon. This will bring our temperatures down to near normal over the weekend. There will be a strong shortwave moving through the west to east flow across the nation. The GFS is more progressive bringing the best chance of rain next Monday. The EC digs a deep trough next week and deep flow out of the Gulf bringing heavy rain to our area next Tuesday. Of course, the current forecast ends Monday night. CAPE on the GFS Monday afternoon around a 1000 from Elberton GA to Charlotte and rapidly goes to zero in the foothills. QPF amounts from a tenth to a half inch on Monday which is the best in weeks. We can hope for at least that continuing through passage of the shortwave and front. Since the coverage on the models is so good, I would carry higher POPs on Monday but it is Day 7. Lots can change in a week. Max temps rise on Monday to about a category above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 Hopefully some good rains in the second week of October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 20 hours ago, WxKnurd said: And some know the fish bite better on Norman the colder and nastier it is lol If you like to catch 1/2 pound spots! I actually love to fish Kerr in the cold with a crank. They eat! Loose attempt to psyche myself up for the continued blaze! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 GFS MOS for Charlotte has a high of 94 Thurs with a dewpoint of 70. Then overcast Saturday with a dewpoint of 55 and a high of 67 - going to be a bit of a shock to the system me think 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Rough summer, especially on the edges in May and September. Relief this weekend for some, then it looks like potential relief for all moving in next Tues thru Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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