downeastnc Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 42 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Both the 18Z GFS and FV3 show light snow for central NC on Monday. But the Tuesday/Wednesday system is non-existent... poof. What do other models show? At this point its gonna change so much run to run its kind of hard to say if there is even really two definite waves....the sad thing is we probably are going to be dealing with a lot of inconsistency till at least Friday in the models. In a way though IMO its almost better to not have the models run after run showing a big snowstorm in this range only to have it go bust down the stretch. I would rather it be borderline and trend to the good in the last few days to keep expectations down. That said I am strangely optimistic that this one is going to bring the goods, after the lousy winter in general this seems like just the thing mother nature would do...... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 6Z GFS and FV3 show sunday night's rain trying to end as a little snow on Monday. we all know how that usually works out. They both have the other system suppressed and off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Looks like it will just be a dry but cold week next week. All precip chances have been removed from our forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, yotaman said: Looks like it will just be a dry but cold week next week. All precip chances have been removed from our forecast. Good for me-don't any more rain here in the Upstate anyway... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 12Z GFS shows some light snow in central/eastern NC on Tuesday now, nothing in this regard on the FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 16 minutes ago, Snow dog said: Good for me-don't any more rain here in the Upstate anyway... We don't near bitter cold either. Concerned about the peach crop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 ICON brought the 2nd wave much further north this round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 This pattern bites since any significant snow is probably off the table, now that a lot of the flowers and buds have come out here if we get down to 20 or below Tues-Wed that will cause some damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 42 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: This pattern bites since any significant snow is probably off the table, now that a lot of the flowers and buds have come out here if we get down to 20 or below Tues-Wed that will cause some damage. It's been the norm for the last several years! Warmth in February and well below temps and above average snow in March and April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 14 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: It's been the norm for the last several years! Warmth in February and well below temps and above average snow in March and April. Exactly! I could've told you with the warmth we've had, we are SURE to have a cold March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Euro not even close to land, except Bermuda! Very suppressed run! Right where we want it 7 days out!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Euro not even close to land, except Bermuda! Very suppressed run! Right where we want it 7 days out!? Nah the NW trend only applies when it screws us! This one will trend SE. After Dec. it has literally refused to snow here and this wont be any different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Euro not even close to land, except Bermuda! Very suppressed run! Right where we want it 7 days out!? It was never about the first wave, the only hope we had was for a second short wave digging in behind the lead low acting on the cold air left behind. The models are now pretty much unanimous in having no secondary wave at all, thus no snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 I've seen people on other boards upset with the models that it wont snow as if the models control that. I'll say it again, I think improvements in the models has led to this boring winter. It certainly has sucked this winter, but we did get 1 storm. Most years it's only 1-3 anyway. The models haven't given us snow inside of day 6 or so because they're catching on quicker to the fact it's not gonna snow. Which I like better than constant tracking to have the rug snatched out 48 hrs out. So as the models get better year after year I'd say our time tracking will drop too. Because let's be honest, in the past 9 out of 10 snows went poof at go time. At least we're not seeing that this year because the modeling seems better inside 7 days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 A lot of us are frustrated because we didn't get 1 storm. Draw a line diagonal through Wake and everyone south and east of that line was zilched on the December storm. That's a lot of posters on this board. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 32 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: I've seen people on other boards upset with the models that it wont snow as if the models control that. I'll say it again, I think improvements in the models has led to this boring winter. It certainly has sucked this winter, but we did get 1 storm. Most years it's only 1-3 anyway. The models haven't given us snow inside of day 6 or so because they're catching on quicker to the fact it's not gonna snow. Which I like better than constant tracking to have the rug snatched out 48 hrs out. So as the models get better year after year I'd say our time tracking will drop too. Because let's be honest, in the past 9 out of 10 snows went poof at go time. At least we're not seeing that this year because the modeling seems better inside 7 days. I think it was less of improved modeling and more that there were no threats this winter to track inside of 6 days, because this winter was hot garbage. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 1 hour ago, southernskimmer said: I think it was less of improved modeling and more that there were no threats this winter to track inside of 6 days, because this winter was hot garbage. This. The PAC reload after a brief tease wasted a lot of winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCentralWakeCo Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 18z GFS showing something on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 18z GFS brings the Tuesday system back, albeit, nothing heavy, but a widespread light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCentralWakeCo Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 18z GFS with widespread 1-4" amounts of Snow Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 snow's back! nice spread at 150hrs over central NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Yeah baby thats what I am talking about, that is the perfect friggen setup for a good NC snowstorm, just need it to get juicier on the NW side, and it will probably be a bit colder than that even.....also that sexy little low relocation off Hatteras would be nice to see actually happen..FV3 has it as well though still mostly suppressed. Of course we now have 6-7 days to watch this one trend away as well probably..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: Yeah baby thats what I am talking about, that is the perfect friggen setup for a good NC snowstorm, just need it to get juicier on the NW side, and it will probably be a bit colder than that even.....also that sexy little low relocation off Hatteras would be nice to see actually happen..FV3 has it as well though still mostly suppressed. Of course we now have 6-7 days to watch this one trend away as well probably..... Looks good right now. However, it is too far out for me to believe in it. The Euro is still suppressed.... that's where we want it at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 49 minutes ago, SouthCentralWakeCo said: 18z GFS Yay! More rain for me! Always need cold first! Who cares about NW shifts and more rain, I’ve had enough rain till June atleast! Congrats to NC , again! Don’t know if I’d want to be in the Bullseye 6 days out though!? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 52 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Yay! More rain for me! Always need cold first! Who cares about NW shifts and more rain, I’ve had enough rain till June atleast! Congrats to NC , again! Don’t know if I’d want to be in the Bullseye 6 days out though!? You should watch those momo videos and pay attention. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myfrotho704 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Yoo anyways trof is lagging even more/more positively tilted, it has trended stronger aswell, sure we like a stronger/sharper trof but we don’t want it to lag to much o You can see how a bombing low acted to suppress things, basically like confluence, even with the adjustment to the trof, it managed to be a more suppressed run overallin my opinion this is our last shot in many parts of the SE, maybe we can have another shot down the road if the AK ridge tries to stay longer or and some sort of blocking around Greenland develops but once that AK ridge/NP block breaks down along with A likely +AO/+NAO, MJO heads for warmer phases, convection from kelvin wave heads to Indonesia, this will argue warmer conditions and a stronger SER, probably the other half of March unless we get freak ULLs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myfrotho704 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Eps is the opposite lol, but it’s trended stronger/more influence with the low bombing out near Newfoundland like the gefs has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 GSP going with a cold and dry forecast for early/mid next week. Precip chances too low to mention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Window is closing for this thing to make big jumps... need to see something promising by Saturday I say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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