mackerel_sky Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 By Tuesday, this will be a Roxboro and N threat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Subfreezing 850's down to Mexico, but of course cold rain form eastern NC. While it may seem that cold rain forms in eastern NC, it actually doesn't. It just happens to pass through there quite often. Perhaps something to do with a certain poster with the same name... Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 While it may seem that cold rain forms in eastern NC, it actually doesn't. It just happens to pass through there quite often. Perhaps something to do with a certain poster with the same name... Sent from my moto e5 supra using TapatalkLooks like a cold rain to me.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Looks like a North GA snowstorm right there m. Yum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 2 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said: Pretty map today. This would be worth going through all the cold (and warm) rain since the early Dec storm. A nice bookend winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 If only we could get some more suppression. I really would love to see folks in CAE and Raleigh (south of 85) score as well. Although, I would take this map any day. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 1 hour ago, calculus1 said: While it may seem that cold rain forms in eastern NC, it actually doesn't. It just happens to pass through there quite often. Perhaps something to do with a certain poster with the same name... Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk Him and his dang snow shields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 The 18z GFS is so suppressed, nothing shows up during the 4-7th! Winning! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 9 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: The 18z GFS is so suppressed, nothing shows up during the 4-7th! Winning! The big thing is it still shows a storm. The 18z FV3 has a light event, which wouldn't take much to be much larger (but again details....). So basically all major models showing a potential storm at day 9. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: The big thing is it still shows a storm. The 18z FV3 has a light event, which wouldn't take much to be much larger (but again details....). So basically all major models showing a potential storm at day 9. Really its right where we want it in this time frame, weak and suppressed....that last thing you want this far out is to be the bullseye, especially if you live in central or eastern NC....Euro had 9-10 warning criteria panels for central and eastern NC.....like this one, just need it to shift another 75 miles SE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 If this one gives everyone else a score but blanks southern Wake like the Dec. storm, that would stink. C'mon give us one more shot! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Really its right where we want it in this time frame, weak and suppressed....that last thing you want this far out is to be the bullseye, especially if you live in central or eastern NC....Euro had 9-10 warning criteria panels for central and eastern NC.....like this one, just need it to shift another 75 miles SE Yeah, but how often have storms trended SE? It’s always a NW correction and it puts Eastern and Central NC into the rain sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, tramadoc said: Yeah, but how often have storms trended SE? It’s always a NW correction and it puts Eastern and Central NC into the rain sector. I guarantee that snow map and Euro solution is gonna change many times over the next 6-10 days.....same with the GFS, no point in worrying about where a R/S line might setup in this range, hell I am happy just to see a storm.....lets just hope the models keep slamming that cold in here, thats the key, we need good cold in place and reinforcements to keep the storm track to the south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 0z GFS right where we want it! Good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 So, the 0z euro had two different potential storms from day 8 to 10. Both didn't produce much but again it wouldn't take much for that to change. At this time range we have to expect big difference between each model run (storm, no storm, storm.....). In a couple of days we would expect it to settle down some; hopefully showing a storm. The 6z GFS has a nice snow storm for a large portion of NC up into VA. FV3 has the storm but it's suppressed. So just looking at these three models (..considering GFS and FV3 different) there's definitely still a strong storm signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 This would be the cold we need to setup the potential storm afterwards: From RAH: The forecast over the weekend is uncertain, yet the next system should bring more rain into the weekend - followed by a very cold high that may nose into our region (potentially more aggressively than most of the cold highs that have affected the upper Mid-West into the Ohio Valley so for this winter season). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 17 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: By Tuesday, this will be a Roxboro and N threat! May be by noon today, if GFS trend continues!? It’s way North of yesterday’s runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 22 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: May be by noon today, if GFS trend continues!? It’s way North of yesterday’s runs! Not sure if it's a trend. It seems like the difference between the 0z and 6z GFS is that the 6z develops a storm much earlier. Now if you're looking at yesterdays 18z, there was a shift north between that run and 0z. But it seems the 6z GFS has leaned towards the euro of developing a storm on day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: Not sure if it's a trend. It seems like the difference between the 0z and 6z GFS is that the 6z develops a storm much earlier. Now if you're looking at yesterdays 18z, there was a shift north between that run and 0z. But it seems the 6z GFS has leaned towards the euro of developing a storm on day 8. Any maps of the 6z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow dog said: Any maps of the 6z? Here's the 6z GFS snow map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Still about half of the EPS members show some snow in the ATL area, GEFS a bit more than half. I do think there will be a gulf wave along about Mar 4-5, question is how strong and of course where any snow bands might set up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 12z has a nice little slider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 12z gfs still showing the storm next Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 10 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: 12z has a nice little slider. A true southern slider... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Temps gonna be sketchy at best, outside of NC. GFS has been horrible at everything 7+ days out, but extremely horrible cold bias, that ends up a lot warmer in reality! Not what you want to hear in March and or when temps are already borderline! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Temps gonna be sketchy at best, outside of NC. GFS has been horrible at everything 7+ days out, but extremely horrible cold bias, that ends up a lot warmer in reality! Not what you want to hear in March and or when temps are already borderline! Which is why I look for support from other models. There's regional support for a storm and some cold air but nothing like the latest gfs is showing I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Hard to get too bullish yet, given our history of watching 7+ day threats warm up on the way in. But we're in the final innings and the signal is strong for a storm. Hopefully, it won't trend north too badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Hard to get too bullish yet, given our history of watching 7+ day threats warm up on the way in. But we're in the final innings and the signal is strong for a storm. Hopefully, it won't trend north too badly. Your right, we've lost many threats ~ day 7. It would be great if the models keep/start showing a storm the next two days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 GEFS Mean did go up from 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: GEFS Mean did go up from 6z This is from Tropical Tidbits (not a lot storm detail), but it does look promising: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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