AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 hours ago, JoshM said: Considering the GFS had 60s for the last few runs @ 18z on 2/12, this is a HUGE step in the right direction EPO is positive.. I'm not sure how that would work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 13 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: EPO is positive.. I'm not sure how that would work. Indices mean nothing in the southeast, it's all a crapshoot. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Wedge just a pinch stronger this run... baby steps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 FV3 brought the boom yet again. It’s mostly, if not all, ZR/IP for NC/SC but here’s just an idea of the wedge strength 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 6z GFS backed off slightly but still has the idea. FV3 still shows a significant storm. Here's RAH: As the high moves offshore it will move into a better position for in-situ damming and moisture will approach from the west as a disorganized wave of low pressure moves in. Isentropic lift increases significantly after 00z Monday as the first real chances for more significant precipitation in the long term begin and increased frontogenesis occurs along our northern periphery. Rain chances will remain through the end of the period and everything is expected to be liquid at least through 00z Wednesday but many details will need to be ironed out regarding this system over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Lol at the FV3.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 36 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Lol at the FV3.... Bummer, I'm in the snow hole and only get 12"..... It did lead the way for the December storm. I would really like to see more model agreement. GFS is trying but still not there. Lets see what the 12z runs bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 19 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Bummer, I'm in the snow hole and only get 12"..... It did lead the way for the December storm. I would really like to see more model agreement. GFS is trying but still not there. Lets see what the 12z runs bring. Would love to see the Euro get on board but it's way to far north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Winter is on its dying breath folks, enjoy the 80's tomorrow. It does look to get wet again next week and nasty cold rain likely for escarpment areas.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Would love to see the Euro get on board but it's way to far north... There's been storms where its had to play catch up in the past, but it (and other models) should give us pause in getting excited right now. Again, lets see what the 12z runs say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 41 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Winter is on its dying breath folks, enjoy the 80's tomorrow. It does look to get wet again next week and nasty cold rain likely for escarpment areas.. Hey, stop busting bubbles around here! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 9 hours ago, JoshM said: What's with these new models.. it's impossible to get a Polar pattern that far south without a pattern change.. Sorry if I'm ranting, Euro and UKMET are still the best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 That has Mid-Atlantic written all over it. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Lol at the FV3.... The new Goofy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 hour ago, eyewall said: That has Mid-Atlantic written all over it. The 12z run is even crazier!! Biblical ice into SC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: The 12z run is even crazier!! Biblical ice into SC! You mean FV3 because I'm not seeing squat for the SE on 12z gfs run yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: You mean FV3 because I'm not seeing squat for the SE on 12z gfs run yet Yes, my bad! GFSv3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Robert with another nail in the coffin on Facebook. I just hope it stays dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Folks I know it's nice to have the indices in our favor but there not the gospel it's always threading the needle and we all knew a warm up would occur at some point at least it's February but to write off winter is a suckers bet I'm she'll be back probably another blackberry winter wouldn't surprise me anyway Cary on.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, McDowell_Weather said: Folks I know it's nice to have the indices in our favor but there not the gospel it's always threading the needle and we all knew a warm up would occur at some point at least it's February but to write off winter is a suckers bet I'm she'll be back probably another blackberry winter wouldn't surprise me anyway Cary on.... Cary on? Maybe for Marion, but down here in the flat lands it's coming to a close soon. "blackberry winters" are the end-of-April/early-May. Not really winter just a few bleak cool days and near frost chilly nights to draw up and dry the blackberry blooms, nicely readying them for the coming early summer fruit production Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Cary on? Maybe for Marion, but down here in the flat lands it's coming to a close soon. "blackberry winters" are the end-of-April/early-May. Not really winter just a few bleak cool days and near frost chilly nights to draw up and dry the blackberry blooms, nicely readying them for the coming early summer fruit production Lol I know what they are and people south and east of 85 knows it takes more than just threading the needle lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 GFS-FV3 now with 4-5 consecutive runs of a significant winter storm for the CAD favored areas of NC/SC/N GA. 150 hrs out... So hard to trust this model though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, jjwxman said: GFS-FV3 now with 4-5 consecutive runs of a significant winter storm for the CAD favored areas of NC/SC/N GA. 150 hrs out... So hard to trust this model though. Yeah, had the super bowl storm for about 3-4 runs! The GFS is slowly moving in the FV3 directions! E nice to get Euro heading that way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 7 minutes ago, jjwxman said: GFS-FV3 now with 4-5 consecutive runs of a significant winter storm for the CAD favored areas of NC/SC/N GA. 150 hrs out... So hard to trust this model though. Well, they got this week's 'warming' right at 150hrs out so there's that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 What if the FV3 beats the odds and ends up right with a CAD storm only to have other guidance converge with only a couple days left before IceMageddon? Looks like Canadian Ensembles as well as GEFS increased on their Ice potential at 12z..been a boring winter. At least this is fun again for another 4-5 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 26 minutes ago, WarmNose said: What if the FV3 beats the odds and ends up right with a CAD storm only to have other guidance converge with only a couple days left before IceMageddon? Looks like Canadian Ensembles as well as GEFS increased on their Ice potential at 12z..been a boring winter. At least this is fun again for another 4-5 hours Still IMO, looks like a bad ZR event, esp. for foothills of NC, upland SC, and piedmont...will be interesting to see how this goes. I'd rather skip out on a bad ice storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 on the less confident train of the FV3. NCAR is partnering with IBM on the new model to replace deep thunder/blunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Thinking the FV3 is overdoing the high strength and the duration of it. If it ends up weaker, like I suspect it will, then it needs to end up being quite a bit farther south, which I don't think is possible given the pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 46 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Thinking the FV3 is overdoing the high strength and the duration of it. If it ends up weaker, like I suspect it will, then it needs to end up being quite a bit farther south, which I don't think is possible given the pattern. Yep. Other models are trending towards it but not enough. I think central VA up through the MA have a decent shot. Of course I'm still rooting for the FV3.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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