cheapdad00 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 hour ago, jburns said: I still have problems accepting taking maps 2 weeks out even remotely seriously. A few years ago you would have been tarred and feathered for even posting a single map that far out. I also don't buy how much better the models have gotten as a reason. There hasn't been a single storm that I can remember where we knew three days out what was going to happen. Besides, at my age, you don't look too far ahead. Hell, I don't even buy green bananas. I would tend to agree, but didnt the mid range models do well with the December storm? They held it together for a good week ahead, albeit with bullseye gyrations of a couple hundred miles over the course of the runup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 I think I posted a 348 hour run of the GFS for that December storm after it was over and it was surprisingly close. However, it lost the storm only to bring it back a week out. I agree with JBurns here, we can't take a fantasy storm serious these days. I don't even get interested until it's 100 hours or less out. By 72 hours it's more believable.... but that's just me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 35 minutes ago, cheapdad00 said: I would tend to agree, but didnt the mid range models do well with the December storm? They held it together for a good week ahead, albeit with bullseye gyrations of a couple hundred miles over the course of the runup. Yeah, the December storm was pretty stready from 7-8 days out. Quite the exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Where's my snow?? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 minute ago, Wow said: Where's my snow?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 2 hours ago, jburns said: I still have problems accepting taking maps 2 weeks out even remotely seriously. A few years ago you would have been tarred and feathered for even posting a single map that far out. I also don't buy how much better the models have gotten as a reason. There hasn't been a single storm that I can remember where we knew three days out what was going to happen. Besides, at my age, you don't look too far ahead. Hell, I don't even buy green bananas. We live in a land of digital snow now. To borrow a repeated quote from JB and phrase it for my own good. "Enjoy the computer generated snow, its the only snow you got." Who wants to look at maps of 850's +10 abn and chase perfect picnic weather lol. New Age Metorology! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Sigh... I even got a little excited when the FV3 spit out single digit highs for this time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 40 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: I think I posted a 348 hour run of the GFS for that December storm after it was over and it was surprisingly close. However, it lost the storm only to bring it back a week out. I agree with JBurns here, we can't take a fantasy storm serious these days. I don't even get interested until it's 100 hours or less out. By 72 hours it's more believable.... but that's just me. I was posting those maps showing ops and ensembles suporting a flipback to colder wx and a pattern more conducive to opportunity for frozen. In addition to being sarcsstic and attempting a little friendly humor with Mack who understandably rips JBs LR forecast. I know as well as anyone a day 9 fantasy storm will be gone in 6hrs on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 34 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: I was posting those maps showing ops and ensembles suporting a flipback to colder wx and a pattern more conducive to opportunity for frozen. In addition to being sarcsstic and attempting a little friendly humor with Mack who understandably rips JBs LR forecast. I know as well as anyone a day 9 fantasy storm will be gone in 6hrs on models. Way to commit! Your obs of the models have been solid today. Sorry you were being sarcastic. Snow is going to ban you for calling it "fatties" anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 2 hours ago, Wow said: Where's my snow?? Hell, Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 00z FV3 with another 230hr Icy hit east of the mountains. Fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Hello.....hello.....hello... Is anybody in here.....here.....here..... (Slams door and walks away confused and in search of model runs showing snow) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 The models must REALLY be in TORCH MODE, because there has been NO activity at all in this thread today. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Extra wedgy wedge wedgie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 32 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said: The models must REALLY be in TORCH MODE, because there has been NO activity at all in this thread today. LOL As olaf posted above there is a fantasy winter storm at day 10. But we've been burned so much this year with day 10 storms nobody is taking it seriously. Maybe if it's still showing Saturday and Sunday we might start beating the drum; but even then only if other models support it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Maybe we can go into torch mode and start threads to track warmups to over 55°. Of course the same result would happen across the board where the SC/GA peeps get ticked off because they easily blow past 55° while the NC and mountain peeps are the only ones posting because its gonna be "close". We cant win this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Maybe we can go into torch mode and start threads to track warmups to over 55°. Of course the same result would happen across the board where the SC/GA peeps get ticked off because they easily blow past 55° while the NC and mountain peeps are the only ones posting because its gonna be "close". We cant win this year. Ha! Like that Seinfeld episode where George does the opposite of every instinct to get what he really wants. Worth a shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 It's pathetic we are in prime climo at Jan 31st and for purposes of this thread it may as well be Jul 31st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 10 day threat looks like a pretty solid pattern for scoring, imo. FV GFS has been fairly consistent with it over the last few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: 10 day threat looks like a pretty solid pattern for scoring, imo. FV GFS has been fairly consistent with it over the last few days. The regular GFS just picked it up too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Yea, I actually went back through the last 7 or 8 FV GFS runs and pretty much every one of them has this storm with a nice look to it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 18z GFS ops run has it but icy look over NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 70"s tuesday, wed and thirsday here! Spring is here for now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, oconeexman said: 70"s tuesday, wed and thirsday here! Spring is here for now Yeah, now ALL the models lost our winter storm! A severe thread may be necessary!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSchew Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 0z FV GFS lost the icy look in NC Piedmont Sunday afternoon 2/10, but it’s back at 6z. Also, it has been wicked consistent in showing something next weekend for a few days now. GFS and CMC are not enthused, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mwp1023 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Not much to talk about and its Feb 1st... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 31 minutes ago, mwp1023 said: Not much to talk about and its Feb 1st... First half of Feb, through the 15th, looks abysmal on op runs and ensembles! Hard to want to talk about the same thing we have been since Dec 10th! This is looking like Jan/Feb 2012 redux, minus a few nuisance freezing rain events in foothills 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 17 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: First half of Feb, through the 15th, looks abysmal on op runs and ensembles! Hard to want to talk about the same thing we have been since Dec 10th! This is looking like Jan/Feb 2012 redux, minus a few nuisance freezing rain events in foothills Just sad. May as well be 70 from here out. We'll end up with the same result anyway. Snowless! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 18z gfs ops run never brings cold back but hey it's only one run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Hit the Mid-60's today.. this time last year here in Wilmywood.. We were recovering from a snowstorm. Looking forward to a split flow, with Late winter chances here on the SENC coast.. back loaded Winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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