Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

[BullCityWx]

3 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

yep:

 

The first one before that has a little snow but the surface is around 34 so it doesnt stick. 

[oconeexman]

Safe to say January is shot along with the first of Feburary. Gives most of us about a 4 week window realistically for snow chances.

[wncsnow]

The split flow is missing now when we need it..

 

But its gonna dry out some so I am happy about that! 

[burrel2]

3:00pm and it hasn't rained a drop here. According to all the models yesterday I should have gotten 1/10th of rain before daylight this morning, and continuing through the day. Strange...

[Waiting on snow]

32 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

Safe to say January is shot along with the first of Feburary. Gives most of us about a 4 week window realistically for snow chances.

It's shot because this northern stream dominated pattern is almost as bad as being flooded with Pacific zonal flow. Unless you like freezing with no snow this pattern isn't for you. I can't wait until it breaks down. My opinion that's when we'll maybe see a realistic shot. Let's just hope we don't go to zonal again once it does. I'm fine with the trough moving to the west for a bit even if it pumps a SE ridge. That's something to easily get out of with just minor work. Zonal flow again in Feb you can shut the blinds. 

[Cold Rain]

I don't see how we can say definitively things are shot for the next two weeks when there is a good deal of cold nearby and a lot of energy in the flow.  That doesn't make sense to me.  I agree that this isn't a blockbuster winter pattern, but winter weather has been found in more hostile patterns types than this.

[GreensboroWx]

7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I don't see how we can say definitively things are shot for the next two weeks when there is a good deal of cold nearby and a lot of energy in the flow.  That doesn't make sense to me.  I agree that this isn't a blockbuster winter pattern, but winter weather has been found in more hostile patterns types than this.

Yes, x 1000.

We actually have the cold or will next week.  I think the southern stream will start to crank again in early Feb. I still believe we will still see a significant storm or two in the SE before all is said and done.

 

[Waiting on snow]

14 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I don't see how we can say definitively things are shot for the next two weeks when there is a good deal of cold nearby and a lot of energy in the flow.  That doesn't make sense to me.  I agree that this isn't a blockbuster winter pattern, but winter weather has been found in more hostile patterns types than this.

Yeah it's probably not a complete shutout pattern. But once it relaxes is when I'd expect a shot. Until the end of the month I'd say the coastal areas have a better shot of a late bloomer that inland areas. The EPS generally keeps the ridge out west and trough in the east all the way through now. But we really need the STJ to crank back up because depending on the northern stream is just asking for disappointment. Lol

[Iceagewhereartthou]

29 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

3:00pm and it hasn't rained a drop here. According to all the models yesterday I should have gotten 1/10th of rain before daylight this morning, and continuing through the day. Strange...

Per radar, rain just now entering Georgia. Doesn't matter now, temp and dps above freezing. This slow mover is 24 hours too late. Even that would have just been ice. 

[Cold Rain]

7 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Yeah it's probably not a complete shutout pattern. But once it relaxes is when I'd expect a shot. Until the end of the month I'd say the coastal areas have a better shot of a late bloomer that inland areas. The EPS generally keeps the ridge out west and trough in the east all the way through now. But we really need the STJ to crank back up because depending on the northern stream is just asking for disappointment. Lol

It's trickier to put together a storm in the SE than to have one tracking across the entire southern tier, where we can watch it all the way in.  But like Gboro said above, the southern jet probably isn't going anywhere.  The Euro books the MJO through phase 6 now, and even the GFS is perking up in that regard.  I don't see us transitioning away from a cool/cold pattern for too long.  And with all of the various shortwaves moving through, we could pop a storm at any time.  It's the type of pattern where you likely won't get a lot of lead.  I've been burned so many times over the last several years relying on northern stream stuff.  Missed storms to the north, west, south, and east.  But that said, there's no good meteorological reason to be overly pessimistic here.

[msuwx]

FYI, today’s system isn’t slower than expected. The heaviest precip was always tonight for the Carolinas. 

The reason some people missed out on the earlier (and icy) precip this morning is actually because the initial airmass was drier than modeled. Dewpoints were way below model projections yesterday afternoon, and that dry air was a lot for the initial round of isentropic lift-generated precip to overcome. 

[Orangeburgwx]

1 minute ago, msuwx said:

FYI, today’s system isn’t slower than expected. The heaviest precip was always tonight for the Carolinas. 

The reason some people missed out on the earlier (and icy) precip this morning is actually because the initial airmass was drier than modeled. Dewpoints were way below model projections yesterday afternoon, and that dry air was a lot for the initial round of isentropic lift-generated precip to overcome. 

Couldn't bring those wetbulbs up... 

[oconeexman]

35 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

It's trickier to put together a storm in the SE than to have one tracking across the entire southern tier, where we can watch it all the way in.  But like Gboro said above, the southern jet probably isn't going anywhere.  The Euro books the MJO through phase 6 now, and even the GFS is perking up in that regard.  I don't see us transitioning away from a cool/cold pattern for too long.  And with all of the various shortwaves moving through, we could pop a storm at any time.  It's the type of pattern where you likely won't get a lot of lead.  I've been burned so many times over the last several years relying on northern stream stuff.  Missed storms to the north, west, south, and east.  But that said, there's no good meteorological reason to be overly pessimistic here.

Just basing it off the ensembles in the 7-14 day span. They've all trended away from any real threats in the SE. Believe me I hope they're wrong and very well could be. Hopefully something sneaks up on them but as it stands right now theres nada out there to look forward to for snow lovers outside the NC mountains. That's been the trend for the last 2 days. Yes cold is coming...after all the good signs and above average forecasts from virtually everyone color me pessimistic now as we havent even gotten average yet in the upstate or Ne Ga.  And climatology speaking our prime time is from Jan 1 to mid February here. 

Sure we could be in for a fabulous February and a Marvelous March...and surely hope so. But over the last decade from mid February on Spring comes knocking here. Hell the last couple of years I've been fishing for spawning bass in February. Sure most forecasts call for a back loaded winter...just when is the end of the back anymore?? 

[Billypg70]

50 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

It's trickier to put together a storm in the SE than to have one tracking across the entire southern tier, where we can watch it all the way in.  But like Gboro said above, the southern jet probably isn't going anywhere.  The Euro books the MJO through phase 6 now, and even the GFS is perking up in that regard.  I don't see us transitioning away from a cool/cold pattern for too long.  And with all of the various shortwaves moving through, we could pop a storm at any time.  It's the type of pattern where you likely won't get a lot of lead.  I've been burned so many times over the last several years relying on northern stream stuff.  Missed storms to the north, west, south, and east.  But that said, there's no good meteorological reason to be overly pessimistic here.

I've been following you and others on this board for probably more than a decade.

I couldn't agree more with your last 2 posts.

I get so sick about hearing how we can't get snow because of a lack of -NAO.

Even years we have had -NAO's & other indices in favorable positions.

We still depend upon timing.

I understand there's certain ppl on this board who I respect or enjoy seeing their posts who are 20 to 50 miles off from nothing to literally 6" or more.

Mack lives within 30 minutes or so of me.

The last 3 storms he has gotten either flurries or nothing while I had 3" December 17,  4" January 18,  & 6" inches in December 18.

That has to be frustrating as hell.

I feel for him and others on this board.

The last time I remember a board covering snow was middle Feb 14.

We have plenty of time regardless of modeling.

Also models are tools.

You guys know you can't take each model verbatim.

I seen someone talking about how spot on they were for the last few weeks.

I disagree, 

Just 3 days ago I was supposed to be mid to upper 50's today.

I have not been above 43 today.

That's a bust to me.

Listen to guys who know what their talking about.

I still believe we will have a pretty big storm or 2 that covers most of the board.

Probably not all but,

If you live in coastal areas or the Midlands you really shouldn't expect a winter storm but every 5 to 8 years.

 

[CaryWx]

Frontal snow at 156hrs on GFS for NC.  Looks like a wave may dive down that trough afterwards...

[Waiting on snow]

40 minutes ago, Billypg70 said:

I've been following you and others on this board for probably more than a decade.

I couldn't agree more with your last 2 posts.

I get so sick about hearing how we can't get snow because of a lack of -NAO.

Even years we have had -NAO's & other indices in favorable positions.

We still depend upon timing.

I understand there's certain ppl on this board who I respect or enjoy seeing their posts who are 20 to 50 miles off from nothing to literally 6" or more.

Mack lives within 30 minutes or so of me.

The last 3 storms he has gotten either flurries or nothing while I had 3" December 17,  4" January 18,  & 6" inches in December 18.

That has to be frustrating as hell.

I feel for him and others on this board.

The last time I remember a board covering snow was middle Feb 14.

We have plenty of time regardless of modeling.

Also models are tools.

You guys know you can't take each model verbatim.

I seen someone talking about how spot on they were for the last few weeks.

I disagree, 

Just 3 days ago I was supposed to be mid to upper 50's today.

I have not been above 43 today.

That's a bust to me.

Listen to guys who know what their talking about.

I still believe we will have a pretty big storm or 2 that covers most of the board.

Probably not all but,

If you live in coastal areas or the Midlands you really shouldn't expect a winter storm but every 5 to 8 years.

 

I agree about the NAO. It's been absent for close to a decade and things still work out. It can actually hurt you with southern energy though, slowing it, letting it amplify and riding north. In this pattern it would do wonders though. It could slow down this northern stream crap and allow it to amplify instead of being a strung out mess. But it's a unicorn and still is this winter too unfortunately.

As far as the Midlands that's not true at all. At least the northern Midlands. I grew up in Newberry and never went more than 2 years without measurable snow. Maybe Orangeburg and places south are every 5 years or so. But lately Newberry hasn't had snow since 14 and even the southern Upstate hasn't. That area between 85 and 20 has really gotten the short end of the stick. It's pathetic! If any area is due its them! Even if I got clouds and they got snow it wouldn't bother me none.

[SnowDawg]

4 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

I agree about the NAO. It's been absent for close to a decade and things still work out. It can actually hurt you with southern energy though, slowing it, letting it amplify and riding north. In this pattern it would do wonders though. It could slow down this northern stream crap and allow it to amplify instead of being a strung out mess. But it's a unicorn and still is this winter too unfortunately.

As far as the Midlands that's not true at all. At least the northern Midlands. I grew up in Newberry and never went more than 2 years without measurable snow. Maybe Orangeburg and places south are every 5 years or so. But lately Newberry hasn't had snow since 14 and even the southern Upstate hasn't. That area between 85 and 20 has really gotten the short end of the stick. It's pathetic! If any area is due its them! Even if I got clouds and they got snow it wouldn't bother me none.

You can also include Eastern Georgia in on areas that really deserve to get something. Not up my way in the mountains, but the south of 85 Athens area eastward into SC. They got to sit and watch it snow over a foot in Atlanta suburbs in December 2017 while it rained all day there. I think they've seen a trace to an inch total since the Feb. 2014 storm

[Awesomesauce81]

7 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

You can also include Eastern Georgia in on areas that really deserve to get something. Not up my way in the mountains, but the south of 85 Athens area eastward into SC. They got to sit and watch it snow over a foot in Atlanta suburbs in December 2017 while it rained all day there. I think they've seen a trace to an inch total since the Feb. 2014 storm

Damn!!! Even I (Savannah) have seen snow since then. I'm rooting for that area....and myself of course 

[CaryWx]

GFS snow at 288

[mackerel_sky]

33 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Frontal snow at 156hrs on GFS for NC.  Looks like a wave may dive down that trough afterwards...

Sad winter, if your chasing that unicorn 

[frazdaddy]

1 hour ago, Billypg70 said:

I've been following you and others on this board for probably more than a decade.

I couldn't agree more with your last 2 posts.

I get so sick about hearing how we can't get snow because of a lack of -NAO.

Even years we have had -NAO's & other indices in favorable positions.

We still depend upon timing.

I understand there's certain ppl on this board who I respect or enjoy seeing their posts who are 20 to 50 miles off from nothing to literally 6" or more.

Mack lives within 30 minutes or so of me.

The last 3 storms he has gotten either flurries or nothing while I had 3" December 17,  4" January 18,  & 6" inches in December 18.

That has to be frustrating as hell.

I feel for him and others on this board.

The last time I remember a board covering snow was middle Feb 14.

We have plenty of time regardless of modeling.

Also models are tools.

You guys know you can't take each model verbatim.

I seen someone talking about how spot on they were for the last few weeks.

I disagree, 

Just 3 days ago I was supposed to be mid to upper 50's today.

I have not been above 43 today.

That's a bust to me.

Listen to guys who know what their talking about.

I still believe we will have a pretty big storm or 2 that covers most of the board.

Probably not all but,

If you live in coastal areas or the Midlands you really shouldn't expect a winter storm but every 5 to 8 years.

 

ole CR knows a thing or two about weather. 

[Lookout]

2 hours ago, msuwx said:

FYI, today’s system isn’t slower than expected. The heaviest precip was always tonight for the Carolinas. 

The reason some people missed out on the earlier (and icy) precip this morning is actually because the initial airmass was drier than modeled. Dewpoints were way below model projections yesterday afternoon, and that dry air was a lot for the initial round of isentropic lift-generated precip to overcome. 

yep, everything was always dependent on enough precip falling to take advantage and unfortunately it was just bone dry. Story of the winter so far south of nc...just can't get anything to come together right. 

Still this was a fascinating day here with the warm front and something happened that is pretty rare...the warm front moved through but then pushed back slightly south. Normally of course once it comes through it keeps going or at least doesn't come back.  Athens observations bear it out...the warm front moved just north of here and then came back south. Temps went from the mid 40s to the upper 60s and damn near 70 only to fall back into the low to mid 50s the past few hours. Meanwhile just to the south it's still in the mid to upper 60s. A few miles to the north temps mostly stayed in the 40s.  Indeed at one point, one observation site just a couple of miles away from athens airport was 10 degrees warmer. Personally, cad/wedges aren't just about ice/snow so this is pretty neat to me. 

Here is athens observations this afternoon. 

23 Jan 5:51 pm	53	44	71		ENE	9 		10.00		OVC046	29.02	1012.0	29.88								
23 Jan 4:51 pm	57	46	67		ENE	10 		10.00		OVC049	29.04	1012.8	29.90								
23 Jan 3:51 pm	69	49	49		S	9 		10.00		FEW049,BKN090	29.07	1013.6	29.93								
23 Jan 2:51 pm	68	49	50		S	9G20 	 	10.00		BKN046,BKN090	29.11	1015.0	29.97								
23 Jan 1:51 pm	60	48	64		NE	10 		10.00		FEW037	29.16	1016.9	30.03								
23 Jan 12:51 pm	54	44	69		ENE	10 		10.00		FEW030	29.23	1019.4	30.10					55	39		
23 Jan 12:33 pm	53	43	69		NE	8 		10.00		SCT013	29.25		30.12								
23 Jan 12:16 pm	52	43	71		ENE	10 		10.00		BKN010,OVC015	29.28		30.15								
23 Jan 11:51 am	51	43	74		E	13 		10.00		OVC008	29.29	1021.8	30.16								
23 Jan 10:51 am	46	38	73		ENE	6 		10.00		OVC009	29.34	1023.5	30.21								
23 Jan 9:51 am	42	34	73		E	10 		10.00		OVC008	29.36	1024.1	30.23								
23 Jan 9:27 am	41	33	73		E	9 		10.00		OVC009	29.39		30.26								
23 Jan 8:51 am	41	33	73		E	9 		10.00		OVC010	29.39	1025.2	30.26								
23 Jan 8:41 am	41	33	73		E	9 		10.00		OVC010	29.39		30.26

1 hour ago, SnowDawg said:

You can also include Eastern Georgia in on areas that really deserve to get something. Not up my way in the mountains, but the south of 85 Athens area eastward into SC. They got to sit and watch it snow over a foot in Atlanta suburbs in December 2017 while it rained all day there. I think they've seen a trace to an inch total since the Feb. 2014 storm

Yep, if i had not gone to gainesville the past few years ,  i wouldn't have seen a thing. Been a pretty bad winter weather drought around these parts. 

[CentralNC]

Welp, saw lightning twice while driving home from work this evening.  You know what that means?!?

It has as much chance verifying as any model right now...

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

7 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

Welp, saw lightning twice while driving home from work this evening.  You know what that means?!?

It has as much chance verifying as any model right now...

We’ve been stuck in the 30’s all day today. 37 right now. 

[mackerel_sky]

34 minutes ago, Lookout said:

yep, everything was always dependent on enough precip falling to take advantage and unfortunately it was just bone dry. Story of the winter so far south of nc...just can't get anything to come together right. 

Still this was a fascinating day here with the warm front and something happened that is pretty rare...the warm front moved through but then pushed back slightly south. Normally of course once it comes through it keeps going or at least doesn't come back.  Athens observations bear it out...the warm front moved just north of here and then came back south. Temps went from the mid 40s to the upper 60s and damn near 70 only to fall back into the low to mid 50s the past few hours. Meanwhile just to the south it's still in the mid to upper 60s. A few miles to the north temps mostly stayed in the 40s.  Indeed at one point, one observation site just a couple of miles away from athens airport was 10 degrees warmer. Personally, cad/wedges aren't just about ice/snow so this is pretty neat to me. 

Here is athens observations this afternoon. 

23 Jan 5:51 pm	53	44	71		ENE	9 		10.00		OVC046	29.02	1012.0	29.88								
23 Jan 4:51 pm	57	46	67		ENE	10 		10.00		OVC049	29.04	1012.8	29.90								
23 Jan 3:51 pm	69	49	49		S	9 		10.00		FEW049,BKN090	29.07	1013.6	29.93								
23 Jan 2:51 pm	68	49	50		S	9G20 	 	10.00		BKN046,BKN090	29.11	1015.0	29.97								
23 Jan 1:51 pm	60	48	64		NE	10 		10.00		FEW037	29.16	1016.9	30.03								
23 Jan 12:51 pm	54	44	69		ENE	10 		10.00		FEW030	29.23	1019.4	30.10					55	39		
23 Jan 12:33 pm	53	43	69		NE	8 		10.00		SCT013	29.25		30.12								
23 Jan 12:16 pm	52	43	71		ENE	10 		10.00		BKN010,OVC015	29.28		30.15								
23 Jan 11:51 am	51	43	74		E	13 		10.00		OVC008	29.29	1021.8	30.16								
23 Jan 10:51 am	46	38	73		ENE	6 		10.00		OVC009	29.34	1023.5	30.21								
23 Jan 9:51 am	42	34	73		E	10 		10.00		OVC008	29.36	1024.1	30.23								
23 Jan 9:27 am	41	33	73		E	9 		10.00		OVC009	29.39		30.26								
23 Jan 8:51 am	41	33	73		E	9 		10.00		OVC010	29.39	1025.2	30.26								
23 Jan 8:41 am	41	33	73		E	9 		10.00		OVC010	29.39		30.26

Yep, if i had not gone to gainesville the past few years ,  i wouldn't have seen a thing. Been a pretty bad winter weather drought around these parts. 

Was supposed to be in the 50s/60s today, stuck at 44 now after low of 36

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

This wedge will not turn loose here. 35 right now which is the high for the day. Bottomed out at 29.6 this morning.  

[strongwxnc]

This wedge will not turn loose here. 35 right now which is the high for the day. Bottomed out at 29.6 this morning.  

42 here after a low of 32.7. Was mid 30’s until 4 or so.


.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

5 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

42 here after a low of 32.7. Was mid 30’s until 4 or so.


.

Just saw it’s 60 at CLT!! What is that like 40 miles as the crow flies from you?

[strongwxnc]

Just saw it’s 60 at CLT!! What is that like 40 miles as the crow flies from you?

More like 60 but still what a tight gradient!

 

 

.

[JoshM]

I went to Lake Wylie to get gas, about an hour ago, it was 60 there. I'm back home now, it's 42