WidreMann Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 DRY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 19 minutes ago, WidreMann said: DRY. Artic high wavetrain, of course it will be dry like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 27 minutes ago, WidreMann said: DRY. Warm and wet or cold and dry. That's the pattern down here all winter, every winter, except for about once or twice a year when the stars align. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 hours ago, griteater said: Quite honestly, the early December setup / 500mb configuration was excellent (southern slider w/ NE confluence and sfc high)....we (Greenville to Charlotte) need the early Dec configuration to go with the current cold air masses we have to our north/northwest. The 500mb configuration right now (Hudson Bay vortex) isn't the best, but can work. Completely agree; that's why I hated having such marginal cold along the I-85 corridor. Some called it "bonus" as it was a little outside of climo, but I saw it as a huge monkey wrench in what might be our best setup all winter. I would LOVE to get that kind of set up now, but I think it's not very likely to see that set up again this winter. Always a chink in the armor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: Warm and wet or cold and dry. That's the pattern down here all winter, every winter, except for about once or twice a year when the stars align. As I posted earlier today the El Niño is really more a neutral so there really isn’t any massive southern stream action. The ensembles are showing a bunch of Miller B storms for the most part. With the cold presses though something may time out right down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 17 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Artic high wavetrain, of course it will be dry like that I wouldn’t worry about the super cold looks on the models, they havnt panned out all winter, why would they start now? Yesterday was supposed to be “ deadly” cold, I had highs and lows about 8-10 degrees below normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Radar starting to show developing showers. Upstate SC to TN,NC to around the triad. Maybe icy and slick for some in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Not a word about the Euro at the end of January!??? Telling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Warm-up today & tomorrow Golfing & fishing.. long Range forecast? more of the same.. Chance snow next Thursday? (1/31) not even.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 45 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Not a word about the Euro at the end of January!??? Telling Has the low lands from Augusta to Myrtle Beacb hammered around the 30th. Us up here around 1000ft nada..awesome pattern! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, oconeexman said: Has the low lands from Augusta to Myrtle Beacb hammered around the 30th. Us up here around 1000ft nads..awesome pattern! Don't ya just LOVE the South? Either cold rain or dry cold,, nothing "wintery".. OPPs my bad this should be in the insane asylum , looks ICY on the31st though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 4th icing event of the year. This winter continues to impress 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: 4th icing event of the year. This winter continues to impress For some it's been good..for us others not so much. Hell it never dropped below 38 here last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 10 minutes ago, oconeexman said: For some it's been good..for us others not so much. Hell it never dropped below 38 here last night. Wow. Still 30 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 28 minutes ago, oconeexman said: Has the low lands from Augusta to Myrtle Beacb hammered around the 30th. Us up here around 1000ft nada..awesome pattern! Yeah, only we could get a 30.70 arctic high, and rain 12 hours later! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Weather channel a week from today: Cloudy with rain and snow showers in the evening. Snow showers overnight. Low 28F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precip 50%. About one inch of snow expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 35 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Weather channel a week from today: Cloudy with rain and snow showers in the evening. Snow showers overnight. Low 28F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precip 50%. About one inch of snow expected Did you really just post an automated forecast from a weather app a week out? 3 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Did you really just post an automated forecast from a weather app a week out?Yes. Yes he did. LOLSent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 43 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: Did you really just post an automated forecast from a weather app a week out? That wreaks of desperation! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Rain just started here at PTI: See if its steady enough to wb down. wetbulb is 28,7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 There's plenty of potential in the pattern over the next 10 days or so. We probably relax for a bit after. I suspect it will be short-lived before turning colder once again with another couple of opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 43 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: That wreaks of desperation! As the saying goes "I believe that is a vast understatement..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, Cold Rain said: There's plenty of potential in the pattern over the next 10 days or so. We probably relax for a bit after. I suspect it will be short-lived before turning colder once again with another couple of opportunities. Took a peek at the weeklies and you are correct, but comes back raging cold last half of Feb/early March... Par for the course for the Southeast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 hour ago, Waiting on snow said: Did you really just post an automated forecast from a weather app a week out? To be fair, I copied that from the webpage... And this was my morning CAE disco: LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The region will remain between two winter jets over the weekend into Monday, with the northern branch over the Ohio Valley and New England, while the southern branch moves across the Gulf of Mexico. This will support surface high pressure and dry weather. Temps will start chilly on Saturday with lows in the 20s and highs from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s south. As the surface high slips southward, surface winds will turn to the west and southwest, allowing temps to become a few degrees warmer each day and night. The next cold front will be in the vicinity on Tuesday. Models and ensemble means are in impressively good agreement with timing for a system 6 days away, but they do differ on the amount of moisture coming with the front. The GFS and GEFS mean indicate a better chance for showers with the front than the ECMWF, but have kept it relatively simple for now with a slight chance in the southeastern half of the FA, and low end chance in the northwest. Models diverge much more significantly after that time, and bear watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, Cold Rain said: There's plenty of potential in the pattern over the next 10 days or so. We probably relax for a bit after. I suspect it will be short-lived before turning colder once again with another couple of opportunities. The PNA looks to go negative in the medium range but does jump back neutral/positive in the LR. The AO stays strongly negative. I wont even comment on the NAO. I'm afraid that the cold will start dumping in the west and keep us in the rain/cold/warm up/rain/cold... pattern. Not sure what the EPO is doing (site I use is down.....Budget). That could help us if it is negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Another weather day for students here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 41 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: There's plenty of potential in the pattern over the next 10 days or so. We probably relax for a bit after. I suspect it will be short-lived before turning colder once again with another couple of opportunities. Ooooooooh, March snows are the best! 93’ redux! Keep hope alive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 32 minutes ago, FallsLake said: The PNA looks to go negative in the medium range but does jump back neutral/positive in the LR. The AO stays strongly negative. I wont even comment on the NAO. I'm afraid that the cold will start dumping in the west and keep us in the rain/cold/warm up/rain/cold... pattern. Not sure what the EPO is doing (site I use is down.....Budget). That could help us if it is negative. Somebody with EPS access can hopefully eyeball it and tell us what the EPO looks to do in the LR. It looks to stay negative through D10 looking at the Euro Op. At 168, the EPO isn't configured in an ideal fashion, but my guess is that the calculated value is still negative. The PNA value is likely negative also. Either way, the configuration of the atmosphere isn't conducive for max cold and a super suppressed storm track in the SE. However, there is enough ridging in eastern Canada to push the PV south. Probably a cutter or Miller B pattern. But not warm: At 240, the block north of AK has strengthened, and it looks to be trying to connect with the ridge that has now gone back up over the western US. This would keep the SE cold and hopefully give more of the area a better shot at winter weather, eventually, particularly if the NAO region would respond a little. If the model went out another couple of days, you'd probably see colder values work SE: Anyway, it's not an incredibly useful exercise to analyze a 10 day model. But this doesn't look too bad for an MJO in Phase 6 or whatever. Someone with EPS access can confirm whether this solution is supported by the ensembles and what the next several days after might hold. Overall, I'm optimistic on how the rest of winter plays out, pattern-wise. While I don't think we ever come close to getting the holy grail pattern, we should have several more legitimate opportunities to put something together storm-wise. The ingredients should all be available, and we should avoid utter hostility. Whether or not we can put them together remains to be seen. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Somebody with EPS access can hopefully eyeball it and tell us what the EPO looks to do in the LR. It looks to stay negative through D10 looking at the Euro Op. At 168, the EPO isn't configured in an ideal fashion, but my guess is that the calculated value is still negative. The PNA value is likely negative also. Either way, the configuration of the atmosphere isn't conducive for max cold and a super suppressed storm track in the SE. However, there is enough ridging in eastern Canada to push the PV south. Probably a cutter or Miller B pattern. But not warm: At 240, the block north of AK has strengthened, and it looks to be trying to connect with the ridge that has now gone back up over the western US. This would keep the SE cold and hopefully give more of the area a better shot at winter weather, eventually, particularly if the NAO region would respond a little. If the model went out another couple of days, you'd probably see colder values work SE: Anyway, it's not an incredibly useful exercise to analyze a 10 day model. But this doesn't look too bad for an MJO in Phase 6 or whatever. Someone with EPS access can confirm whether this solution is supported by the ensembles and what the next several days after might hold. Overall, I'm optimistic on how the rest of winter plays out, pattern-wise. While I don't think we ever come close to getting the holy grail pattern, we should have several more legitimate opportunities to put something together storm-wise. The ingredients should all be available, and we should avoid utter hostility. Whether or not we can put them together remains to be seen. This time of year we normally don't need a perfect pattern. What it really comes down to is we need a little luck; as always. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 4 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Not a word about the Euro at the end of January!??? Telling Depends on where you live I suppose the Euro was great for all of us eastern SC/NC folks....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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