Orangeburgwx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 24 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS track for Monday Low is Bay of Campeche > Western Cuba > Bahamas Went on vacation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 25 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS track for Monday Low is Bay of Campeche > Western Cuba > Bahamas That's perfect for us coastal guys. We have plenty of room for nw shifts lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 The more I look at these model runs the more frustrating it gets.... 1-2" rainfalls, the dry and cold several days, then it warms up enough to give us another rain. Then it gets cold and dry again... a "Rinse & Repeat" pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, shaggy said: That's perfect for us coastal guys. We have plenty of room for nw shifts lol Yeah we do... Question us can we pull it off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, BornAgain13 said: The more I look at these model runs the more frustrating it gets.... 1-2" rainfalls, the dry and cold several days, then it warms up enough to give us another rain. Then it gets cold and dry again... a "Rinse & Repeat" pattern Something has to shake this up. Hopefully it real soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 7 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: Something has to shake this up. Hopefully it real soon. Don’t worry, the pacific jet will shake things up plenty.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Canadian and fv3 look really good for next Tuesday into wednesday and more on their heels for latter in the week. 7 day mark. See if the models can hang onto this and get inside 5 days. Not depending on a pv lobe for cold. Nice 1040 hp. Pure snow sounding in most of carolinas. Canadian consolidates energy alot better at h5. Cant use the crapfest ole gfs. Does another northern call cutoff . What a pathetic model. 7 days isnt what anyone wants to hear. But it all, including this weekends wide right miss, fits the bill of what has been advertised. Post jan 25th pattern change to a great look. So it has legs, lets see if it can play it out or throw egg in our face. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 2 hours ago, Queencitywx said: We have the ICON/EURO/GFS all agreeing on arctic front snow at day 7. Check out 18z canadian and fv3 for next Tues/Wed. Lot more easier to do than this tightrope phase we where hoping to pull off and still could enc espeacilly. But even there high odds still. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Check out 18z canadian and fv3 for next Tues/Wed. Lot more easier to do than this tightrope phase we where hoping to pull off and still could enc espeacilly. But even there high odds still. 18z FV3 looks good for next week... can u post image of 18z Canadian?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 59 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: The more I look at these model runs the more frustrating it gets.... 1-2" rainfalls, the dry and cold several days, then it warms up enough to give us another rain. Then it gets cold and dry again... a "Rinse & Repeat" pattern same here can cause a man to pull his hair out, soaking rains then dry and cold, soaking rains then dry and cold. Odds are the moisture and the cold are going to meet up but boy are the odds against us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 19 minutes ago, JoshM said: Awesome! The “ shutdown “ has obviously affected the new GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1.1" snow, .3" ice for me from that storm... Well that's gonna put me in the dark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanTy Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Can someone anyone post the 18z CMC for nxt Tue and Wed? I want to compare the 12z and 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, WeathermanTy said: Can someone anyone post the 18z CMC for nxt Tue and Wed? I want to compare the 12z and 18z. Its 12z canadian and 18z fv3. 12z canadian is a beaut at h5. My typo mistake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 hour ago, JoshM said: That’s odd. Looks eerily similar to the last dud we tracked at this range. Definitely feels like we’re stuck but it can’t not snow forever 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, WarmNose said: That’s odd. Looks eerily similar to the last dud we tracked at this range. Definitely feels like we’re stuck but it can’t not snow forever The setups are completely different at H5 and this setup verbatim would have a nice cold high to the north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gearhead302 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said: 1.1" snow, .3" ice for me from that storm... Well that's gonna put me in the dark Start the thread already.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gearhead302 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 19 minutes ago, WarmNose said: That’s odd. Looks eerily similar to the last dud we tracked at this range. Definitely feels like we’re stuck but it can’t not snow forever Mother nature: challenge accepted 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 5 minutes ago, gearhead302 said: Start the thread already.... Hell no, got burned by the 28th, NOT doing it again! If it is still there in a few days I might Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 47 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Its 12z canadian and 18z fv3. 12z canadian is a beaut at h5. My typo mistake Looks pretty good. I would like to see a low that overruns from the west or sw, like the one the Canadian showed yesterday. This one on the Fv3 18z shows another low sagging down from the NW and trying to go through the mtns. Invariably it will cause a down sloping lee side min for the foothills and upstate. Is there no way to get a southern slider when it's cold enough for snow? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 36 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Looks pretty good. I would like to see a low that overruns from the west or sw, like the one the Canadian showed yesterday. This one on the Fv3 18z shows another low sagging down from the NW and trying to go through the mtns. Invariably it will cause a down sloping lee side min for the foothills and upstate. Is there no way to get a southern slider when it's cold enough for snow? Quite honestly, the early December setup / 500mb configuration was excellent (southern slider w/ NE confluence and sfc high)....we (Greenville to Charlotte) need the early Dec configuration to go with the current cold air masses we have to our north/northwest. The 500mb configuration right now (Hudson Bay vortex) isn't the best, but can work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 This may be somewhat off topic.. feel free to move it elsewhere, mods. But I honestly feel like our “winter winter” shortcomings in our region would make for a great episode for the new ‘Twilight Zone.’ In all honesty, it’s been rather difficult to watch these models back off from what looked to be a glorious system for must of us. A lot of you lucked out there past two winters, I unfortunately haven’t been as fortunate. But I hope by March we can all say, for once, that we “lucked out.” We’re so overdue for the big one. Thank you for all the information that you all provide. I have learned so much as a amateur. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCentralWakeCo Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 0z RGEM for tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 31 minutes ago, griteater said: Quite honestly, the early December setup / 500mb configuration was excellent (southern slider w/ NE confluence and sfc high)....we (Greenville to Charlotte) need the early Dec configuration to go with the current cold air masses we have to our north/northwest. The 500mb configuration right now (Hudson Bay vortex) isn't the best, but can work. And therein lies the problem with this area. Sure, the maybe storm Tue/Wed would be easier than a phase etc...but phases and coastal bombs are how we get the big snow here. Id rather have cold air here and hope for the gulf sliders going up the east coast. Anything in between is extra and helps it feel like winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Nam shoves energy futher east on h5 for begining of weekend storm. Interested to see this thing by friday as its getting sampled. Feel like we havnt heard the last from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 16 minutes ago, SouthCentralWakeCo said: 0z RGEM for tomorrow morning I'm gonna lay my money on too dry to have significant impact but enough for a 2 hour school delay. It is bone dry outside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Yep. If we get enough to wet the roads, it will be rather slick in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Well 0z GFS is rolling. Wonder if it will pick anything up this time around. Maybe see what GEM and Euro are spottily seeing. It's been notta past few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Very cold, but dry, on the GFS so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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