Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

[griteater]

Here's the 12z EPS Mean for Sunday/Monday.  I think the move toward suppressing this thru the gulf is perfectly fine.  I think the area of "greater concern" is the warming tendency.  If the wave detaches from the northern stream, you lose some of the cold air that is necessary to keep the column cold enough east of the mtns and on the NW side of the low.

[BornAgain13]

2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

The euro, by far, was the coldest model here and is currently verifying. 

Are you DT in disguise? lol

[Lookout]

13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

System at 120 over OK/TX doing exactly what you want at this range.  Getting buried and squashed.  Fully believe that wouldn’t happen and that system would continuee moving E along the gulf coast 

Although i've never been optimistic about this system and still don't believe we get much of anything, i'd rather they be showing it squashed than to the north. Even though it's not looking good at the moment,   The lack of run to run consistency should be enough to not rule it or anything out right now. 

 

[BornAgain13]

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

Here's the 12z EPS Mean for Sunday/Monday.  I think the move toward suppressing this thru the gulf is perfectly fine.  I think the area of "greater concern" is the warming tendency.  If the wave detaches from the northern stream, you lose some of the cold air that is necessary to keep the column cold enough east of the mtns and on the NW side of the low.

Other than the cold air, does the EPS have similar results as far as snow from 0z?

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Although i've never been optimistic about this system and still don't believe we get much of anything, i'd rather they be showing it squashed than to the north. Even though it's not looking good at the moment,   The lack of run to run consistency should be enough to not rule it or anything out right now. 

 

Ensemble mean sure looks to eject it better though not perfect 

[SnowDawg]

Ensembles continuing to abandon snowfall with the weekend storm. Truly bizarre to me to see a storm squashed down into the gulf and it still be too warm...

[Waiting on snow]

1 hour ago, SnowDawg said:

I don’t understand the warmth... Suppression and warmth don’t exactly go together?

I'm guessing there is no high over the ne and no 50/50 low. I wouldn't write it off, but northern stream energy diving is not usually good for us. That's the same model that had historic cold that very same day, and now has a storm crossing north Florida and it's not cold enough for snow. All you can do is lol and realize they're struggling badly. 

[Tacoma]

Yep normally when a storm is squashed it's because of a very strong HP is keeping the storm from coming NW, the old NW trend.  Cold and dry but I'm surprised because of this the moisture isn't coming NW and we warm up and get rain.  Plus with the snow chances over the next 7-10 days none of the 7-10 day forecast barely mention any snow, not really even seeing anyone saying much of a chance of snow yet.  We all know how fast the chances can change especially being so far out right now.  

[Waiting on snow]

As far as where we go from here, we always do better as the pattern relaxes. And it looks to relax the first of Feb. so maybe the storm 9 days out will pan out. As Bob Chill pointed out it doesn't look like Pac puke will lock in and blast all the cold off the continent. It may be a temporary -PNA and reload. We'll see. 

[SnowGoose69]

17 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Ensembles continuing to abandon snowfall with the weekend storm. Truly bizarre to me to see a storm squashed down into the gulf and it still be too warm...

Only reason it seems too warm is system is squashed and takes forever to finally come north from Florida.  Had the system in Texas ejected out front 108 there’s plenty of cold air across LA/MS/AL/GA if it came across at 132-144 and you also don’t see the subsequent ridging happen if system kicks out. Basically the whole setup in the SE is different if the system ejects timely  

[SnowDawg]

5 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

As far as where we go from here, we always do better as the pattern relaxes. And it looks to relax the first of Feb. so maybe the storm 9 days out will pan out. As Bob Chill pointed out it doesn't look like Pac puke will lock in and blast all the cold off the continent. It may be a temporary -PNA and reload. We'll see. 

Yeah, EPS looked better at 500mb in the long range than it has in days. Signal is obviously muted at that range but generally shows troughing in the east still with -NAO all the way at hr 360.

[tnweathernut]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Only reason it seems too warm is system is squashed and takes forever to finally come north from Florida.  Had the system in Texas ejected out front 108 there’s plenty of cold air across LA/MS/AL/GA if it came across at 132-144 and you also don’t see the subsequent ridging happen if system kicks out. Basically the whole setup in the SE is different if the system ejects timely  

Agree, great post!

[mackerel_sky]

Let’s discuss this mini ice situation Tuesday night?? Man it’s cold and dry out! NE winds still stiff! How’s the hi res models looking?

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Let’s discuss this mini ice situation Tuesday night?? Man it’s cold and dry out! NE winds still stiff! How’s the hi res models looking?

NAM is surprisingly warm. I'm not sure it will verify.. seems like a cold bust as the primarily low is trending weaker.. 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Let’s discuss this mini ice situation Tuesday night?? Man it’s cold and dry out! NE winds still stiff! How’s the hi res models looking?

GSP just said they were going to wait one more cycle but advisories coming for favored CAD areas. 

[Orangeburgwx]

Afternoon Disco:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models differ on the specifics with regards to a deep upper trough
over the Eastern U.S. next weekend.  Expect temperatures to be at or
below normal levels for late January.  Disturbances rotating around
the base of the upper trough could amplify and become an issue for
the region Sunday Night into Monday, however confidence is lower
than normal in any given solution.

 

[tramadoc]

You're looking at roughly 216-240 here. Probably still coming down hard along and east of the 70% line. 

That’s showing a foot for KECG. Trust me. Will NEVER happen. Pretty to look at.

[FallsLake]

12 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Let’s discuss this mini ice situation Tuesday night?? Man it’s cold and dry out! NE winds still stiff! How’s the hi res models looking?

18z 3K NAM does show light spotty freezing rain/drizzle over NE Ga, Up state, into west and central NC. A couple of things that can make this worse than normal; we've had some really cold temps (surface/pavement temps are cold) and it would be coming early in the morning (no sun and then rush hour).   

[jburns]

2 hours ago, Wow said:

996mb low crossing N FL.  Cold air absent.

Check your messages.

[jjwxman]

24 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Let’s discuss this mini ice situation Tuesday night?? Man it’s cold and dry out! NE winds still stiff! How’s the hi res models looking?

18z NAM taken verbatim, in GSO freezing rain Wednesday Morning with temps near 30, by Midnight temps could warm to near 60 degrees.... Ok, Gotta love it.

[BullCityWx]

Well, I guess I cant unsee the extracted data for my location off the 12z euro. 22 degrees with heavy snow and 850 temps near -10. 

[Waiting on snow]

1 hour ago, CaryWx said:

I would agree with this as a better set up if it were to finally end up with the pattern already

Unfortunately this may be the pattern. Blocking continues to be muted. So far this -NAO is just a phantom. And my money is on it stays that way. If the Pacific holds on we have a chance to time something up. It's been decent storms without the NAO for several years. This year will have to find a way too.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

NAO is actually a secondary index, because the pattern is mostly west to east and rarely buckles over the top since the 1800s/ice decline. 

[shaggy]

15 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Well, I guess I cant unsee the extracted data for my location off the 12z euro. 22 degrees with heavy snow and 850 temps near -10. 

Wouldn't it be nice if that euro run was truth. As we all know 200 hrs out is an eternity and really just nothing but fantasy. We would need 5 days of consistency on run to runs before we get into a decent time frame to really start talking about this potential. 

Sucks to see such outputs when you know it's not likely to be close to that at all.

[griteater]

This type of Hudson Bay / James Bay Vortex pattern isn't the best at producing highs over the Great Lakes and Northeast with a 50/50 low.  However, when the trough is established across the conus, it can be a good mechanism for getting storms to track across the south with cold air in abundance lurking to the northwest.

Here's an example storm that did work out in this type of pattern from New Years Day in 1962.  

Storm Totals were:

Atlanta: 1.0

Gainesville, GA: 5.0

Charlotte: 6.0

Asheville: 6.9

Greensboro: 6.6

 

The wave/sfc low are off the British Columbia coast at the start of the loop...

 

[Waiting on snow]

17 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

NAO is actually a secondary index, because the pattern is mostly west to east and rarely buckles over the top since the 1800s/ice decline. 

I had high hopes this year because it appears to be solar driven somewhat. 09-10 solar minimum and extreme blocking. The Maunder Minimum and little ice age where the extreme cold over England and the eastern US lasted for decades had to be NAO driven. And that can't be a coincidence that it occurred during the sunspot minimum. I'm sure there are other drivers but that appears to be one. 

[SteveVa]

1 minute ago, Waiting on snow said:

I had high hopes this year because it appears to be solar driven somewhat. 09-10 solar minimum and extreme blocking. The Maunder Minimum and little ice age where the extreme cold over England and the eastern US lasted for decades had to be NAO driven. And that can't be a coincidence that it occurred during the sunspot minimum. I'm sure there are other drivers but that appears to be one. 

Published today: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0293-3

 

The North Atlantic Oscillation is the dominant mode of variability of atmospheric circulation outside of the tropics in the Northern Hemisphere in winter. To understand and attribute this mode of variability is of great societal relevance for populated regions in Eurasia. It has been widely claimed that there is a robust signal of the nearly periodic 11-year solar cycle in the North Atlantic Oscillation in winter, which thereby raises the possibility of using the solar cycle to predict the circulation years in advance. Here we present evidence that contradicts this claim. First, we show the absence of a solar signal in the North Atlantic Oscillation in the instrumental record prior to the mid-1960s, and a marginally significant signal thereafter. Second, from our analysis of a global chemistry–climate model repeatedly forced with the sequence of solar irradiance since the mid-1960s, we suggest that the solar signal over this period might have been a chance occurrence due to internal variability, and hence does not imply enhanced predictability.

[Waiting on snow]

7 minutes ago, griteater said:

This type of Hudson Bay / James Bay Vortex pattern isn't the best at producing highs over the Great Lakes and Northeast with a 50/50 low.  However, when the trough is established across the conus, it can be a good mechanism for getting storms to track across the south with cold air in abundance lurking to the northwest.

Here's an example storm that did work out in this type of pattern from New Years Day in 1962.  

Storm Totals were:

Atlanta: 1.0

Gainesville, GA: 5.0

Charlotte: 6.0

Asheville: 6.9

Greensboro: 6.6

 

The wave/sfc low are off the British Columbia coast at the start of the loop...

 

I wonder if a storm does form this weekend even if it misses, if it can get in the 50/50 location and help with the day 9-10 event? I may be wishcasting because that theory should apply to the 25th storm helping the weekend storm, and it's apparently not going to do so.

[griteater]

3 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

I wonder if a storm does form this weekend even if it misses, if it can get in the 50/50 location and help with the day 9-10 event? I may be wishcasting because that theory should apply to the 25th storm helping the weekend storm, and it's apparently not going to do so.

I kind of doubt we get a good 50/50 low in this setup, but each of the ensembles (Euro/GFS/Canadian) hint at a couple of storm chances in the Sunday-Wed timeframe, even if they are low chance at this point.

[SnowDawg]

14 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

I had high hopes this year because it appears to be solar driven somewhat. 09-10 solar minimum and extreme blocking. The Maunder Minimum and little ice age where the extreme cold over England and the eastern US lasted for decades had to be NAO driven. And that can't be a coincidence that it occurred during the sunspot minimum. I'm sure there are other drivers but that appears to be one. 

They might have resulted in a persistent -NAO pattern, but the little ice age period likely wasn't driven by Atmospheric circulation. I studied this period extensively in college, and it was more of a perfect series of dominoes falling to cause the event. Tropical volcanic forcing likely led to a few years of increasing ice cap volume which altered Ocean patterns, especially the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water. This reduced heat transport into the North Atlantic which would have then led to persistent changes in atmospheric circulation, such as a semi-permanent -NAO. The sunspot minimum likely increased the staying power of this phenomena, acting as a reinforcement of sorts.