Orangeburgwx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 GEFS a I-77 special... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: GEFS a I-77 special... Which side? I’m less that a mile,to the righ in Surry County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 7 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: GEFS a I-77 special... GEFS mean didn’t look as good this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: Which side? I’m less that a mile,to the righ in Surry County Right up the center line. Really narrow storm track. I expect blizzard conditions in the median with 10-12" in the fast lane, 4-6" in the slow lane and a dusting on the shoulders. Outside of that, cold and dry. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Yep drop in means on this run. With a storm that absolutely has to thread the needle, I imagine consistency will take even longer than usual to manage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 All you want to do is hit the target somewhere more than half the time with all these models,model runs,ensembles,etc.You won't hit a bullseye with every run that's gonna come through here but enough hits keeps you in the hunt. Inside 48 hours is when you wanna start aiming for bullseyes. Just my opinion. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 KRDU is currently calling for a high of 39F on Saturday and a high of 42F on Sunday...not a flake is sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jessy89 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Anyone really think the late weekend storm gonna be a winter storm? Or perhaps nothing more then a arctic cold front and flurries?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 13 minutes ago, Suncat said: KRDU is currently calling for a high of 39F on Saturday and a high of 42F on Sunday...not a flake is sight. RAL shows this model pic for next Sunday night. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 29 minutes ago, Suncat said: KRDU is currently calling for a high of 39F on Saturday and a high of 42F on Sunday...not a flake is sight. I read the same forecast as you, and actually took it as a good sign since RAH usually doesn't forecast temps that low 6+ days in advance. Now watch to see if they introduce chance of precip in the next 24 hours. (doesn't matter what type yet, baby steps) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Need to watch the freezing rain threat Wednesday morning. This is getting over looked especially with the cold dome of air in place. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 7 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Need to watch the freezing rain threat Wednesday morning. This is getting over looked especially with the cold dome of air in place. Been hammering that home too. It’s really light so that’s a recipe for road problems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Just now, Queencitywx said: Been hammering that home too. It’s really light so that’s a recipe for road problems. Yep and terrible timing with morning commute mid week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Well, I am waving the flag (with regards to a dreamt-of epic pattern). The advertised +PNA/-NAO (in some cases of epic magnitudes) which was universal across the major guidance has evaporated. Poof. Anybody who wants to say "I told you so", the mic is open. 43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Just a guess but I think the nino may have been doomed from the beginning. If you only look at enso regions it looks ok. But when you pan out and look at the entire Pac it doesn't look good. Especially back in Dec. No typical +PDO and pretty much sprawling + sstas everywhere. Iirc, every nino that did well here had a +pdo. That should have been an early flag. Other than an active southern stream, this nino has not behaved like one at all. There's never even been an aleutian trough of consequence. The neg pna showing up is the final straw for me if it verifies. Nobody saw that coming. Not even a peep. So I'll throw up the white flag and concede that i have no idea where we go from here. Every model and its mom had a neg nao building and also a +pna. Complete uniform agreement. Now that is all changing. Delayed but not denied? Maybe but I no longer trust a single piece of guidance, tweet, or post about what to expect more than 10 days down the line. Sometimes long lead stuff fits the collective thoughts and model output. And sometimes weather makes everyone look like they don't know S. This year clearly fits the nobody or weather model knows S about where we go from here. That being said, starting this weekend, it does look nice and cold for a week to 10 days. After that nobody knows. There are some ominous rumblings from the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 9 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Well, I am waving the flag (with regards to a dreamt-of epic pattern). The advertised +PNA/-NAO (in some cases of epic magnitudes) which was universal across the major guidance has evaporated. Poof. Anybody who wants to say "I told you so", the mic is open. That being said, starting this weekend, it does look nice and cold for a week to 10 days. After that nobody knows. There are some ominous rumblings from the MJO. I won't say I told you so. But I will say I never believed it for a minute. We don't lock in cold patterns on the east coast in winter anymore. I'm guessing that's because of the NAO and its refusal to be anything but positive in winter. We can lock in endless torches but not good patterns. I saw the writing on the wall two nights ago this was coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 10 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: I won't say I told you so. But I will say I never believed it for a minute. We don't lock in cold patterns on the east coast in winter anymore. I'm guessing that's because of the NAO and its refusal to be anything but positive in winter. We can lock in endless torches but not good patterns. I saw the writing on the wall two nights ago this was coming. In my defense, the guidance consensus was very impressive. My conclusion is you can't trust guidance when it comes to -NAO. Ever. I am not sure if I fully agree that we can't lock-in good patterns. If you mean for a week or two, last year we (RDU) had an almost 10 day period below 32 F which included some snow, plus another storm two weeks later. Not sure what you guys experienced in the Upstate. On the other hand, if you mean for a month or more, then yes I agree that the pattern stability does seem asymmetric between cold and warm. We can and do get full three-month long crap-fests, like 2005-6 and 2011-12. I am not aware of any equivalent three-month long cold period. Closest I remember is probably the first half of 2009-10. Which as I am sure you will mention, I think featured extensive -NAO blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Dang it @Bob Chill, I've returned my pre-emergent and seed twice now. Now I gotta go buy it again. I'll check the golf course tomorrow and make sure the range is open starting Feb 1. That Bermuda is gonna be rocking by March! This is gonna be a bookend winter. Big start, nothingburger middle, and big finish in late March. This movie looks real familiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 10 minutes ago, cbmclean said: In my defense, the guidance consensus was very impressive. My conclusion is you can't trust guidance when it comes to -NAO. Ever. I am not sure if I fully agree that we can't lock-in good patterns. If you mean for a week or two, last year we (RDU) had an almost 10 day period below 32 F which included some snow, plus another storm two weeks later. Not sure what you guys experienced in the Upstate. On the other hand, if you mean for a month or more, then yes I agree that the pattern stability does seem asymmetric between cold and warm. We can and do get full three-month long crap-fests, like 2005-6 and 2011-12. I am not aware of any equivalent three-month long cold period. Closest I remember is probably the first half of 2009-10. Which as I am sure you will mention, I think featured extensive -NAO blocking. Yes I'm referring to 10 days or so. Seems to be the best we can do. Also 09-10 was the year of blocking and was a top 5 cold winter. Once the Pac pukes it always seems to last at least 4 weeks. But when it comes to us a fly can fart and the trough is out of here! That said it doesn't look torchy. More average very long range. But who knows anymore? As long as its not a huge SER our chances are about the same to score. Hopefully after next weekend it won't matter to most how it unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1 minute ago, Waiting on snow said: Yes I'm referring to 10 days or so. Seems to be the best we can do. Also 09-10 was the year of blocking and was a top 5 cold winter. Once the Pac pukes it always seems to last at least 4 weeks. But when it comes to us a fly car fart and the trough is out of here! That said it doesn't look torchy. More average very long range. But who knows anymore? As long as its not a huge SER our chances are about the same to score. Hopefully next weekend it won't matter to most how it unfolds. Others, like Bob Chill, have also noted that the Pac Puke tends to really be hard to root out. I know one thing: I am going to watch the MJO like a hawk from now on. Seems to be a more powerful driver than I realized. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 5 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Others, like Bob Chill, have also noted that the Pac Puke tends to really be hard to root out. I know one thing: I am going to watch the MJO like a hawk from now on. Seems to be a more powerful driver than I realized. It really depends on if the Pac jet really cranks up again. A temporary -PNA we can recover from. If that Pac jet cranks up again in Feb close the blinds. Only time will tell I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Everyone just got 0z Nam ed for mid week lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 20 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Dang it @Bob Chill, I've returned my pre-emergent and seed twice now. Now I gotta go buy it again. I'll check the golf course tomorrow and make sure the range is open starting Feb 1. That Bermuda is gonna be rocking by March! This is gonna be a bookend winter. Big start, nothingburger middle, and big finish in late March. This movie looks real familiar. Lol- i wouldnt jump to any quick conclusions. The next 10-12 days will feature several sig below normal airmasses and flow remains active from what we can tell. The neg pna (if it happens at all) looks to coincide with a very negative epo and modestly negative AO. While guidance has backed off on a stout -nao, there is no indication of a +nao. If anything the nao looks like it will still go negative or at worst neutral. One huge difference between a bad pac in Dec and what is progged in early feb is Canada is likely going to be an icebox. As long as the -epo holds (looks very negative in the long range) there will be very cold air across all of Canada. Any intrusions into the conus with be quite cold. In Dec the pac jet blasted every last molecule of cold air off the face of the continent. There's no comparison to late Dec/early Jan from what I'm seeing. Lastly, this new twist with the PNA could end up not happening at all or be brief. We'll just have to see how it goes. In a simpleton view there are only 2 kinds of winter patterns... a shutout pattern or one that could potentially produce frozen precip. After thursday it looks like a decent pattern for some snowfall in both our regions. Not amazing but far better than what most of winter has been like. It should also feature some pretty cold air. Before we worry about d14+ we have to see if we can score before the month is out or in early Feb. Final thought... We can still score with this type of -pna. Arctic air will be abundent in our source region. High pressures will move across to the north. This can set up CAD events or gradient overrunning events. There's no way to know specifics. Let's focus on the period in front of us because the ingredients will be available for winter wx. By the time we get through the next 10 days or so there will be brand new reasons to worry in the long range. Lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Everyone just got 0z Nam ed for mid week lol. How so, I don't see it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Lol- i wouldnt jump to any quick conclusions. The next 10-12 days will feature several sig below normal airmasses and flow remains active from what we can tell. The neg pna (if it happens at all) looks to coincide with a very negative epo and modestly negative AO. While guidance has backed off on a stout -nao, there is no indication of a +nao. If anything the nao looks like it will still go negative or at worst neutral. One huge difference between a bad pac in Dec and what is progged in early feb is Canada is likely going to be an icebox. As long as the -epo holds (looks very negative in the long range) there will be very cold air across all of Canada. Any intrusions into the conus with be quite cold. In Dec the pac jet blasted every last molecule of cold air off the face of the continent. There's no comparison to late Dec/early Jan from what I'm seeing. Lastly, this new twist with the PNA could end up not happening at all or be brief. We'll just have to see how it goes. In a simpleton view there are only 2 kinds of winter patterns... a shutout pattern or one that could potentially produce frozen precip. After thursday it looks like a decent pattern for some snowfall in both our regions. Not amazing but far better than what most of winter has been like. It should also feature some pretty cold air. Before we worry about d14+ we have to see if we can score before the month is out or in early Feb. Final thought... We can still score with this type of -pna. Arctic air will be abundent in our source region. High pressures will move across to the north. This can set up CAD events or gradient overrunning events. There's no way to know specifics. Let's focus on the period in front of us because the ingredients will be available for winter wx. By the time we get through the next 10 days or so there will be brand new reasons to worry in the long range. Lol I always go back to thinking about PDII being in a -PNA patternpAttErn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Watching the 0z GFS roll out slowly How's the icon looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 9 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: How so, I don't see it... 12k nam. Paints 1-3 ne ga upstate all wnc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Just now, CaryWx said: Watching the 0z GFS roll out slowly How's the icon looking Like a hurricane in the gulf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billypg70 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol- i wouldnt jump to any quick conclusions. The next 10-12 days will feature several sig below normal airmasses and flow remains active from what we can tell. The neg pna (if it happens at all) looks to coincide with a very negative epo and modestly negative AO. While guidance has backed off on a stout -nao, there is no indication of a +nao. If anything the nao looks like it will still go negative or at worst neutral. One huge difference between a bad pac in Dec and what is progged in early feb is Canada is likely going to be an icebox. As long as the -epo holds (looks very negative in the long range) there will be very cold air across all of Canada. Any intrusions into the conus with be quite cold. In Dec the pac jet blasted every last molecule of cold air off the face of the continent. There's no comparison to late Dec/early Jan from what I'm seeing. Lastly, this new twist with the PNA could end up not happening at all or be brief. We'll just have to see how it goes. In a simpleton view there are only 2 kinds of winter patterns... a shutout pattern or one that could potentially produce frozen precip. After thursday it looks like a decent pattern for some snowfall in both our regions. Not amazing but far better than what most of winter has been like. It should also feature some pretty cold air. Before we worry about d14+ we have to see if we can score before the month is out or in early Feb. Final thought... We can still score with this type of -pna. Arctic air will be abundent in our source region. High pressures will move across to the north. This can set up CAD events or gradient overrunning events. There's no way to know specifics. Let's focus on the period in front of us because the ingredients will be available for winter wx. By the time we get through the next 10 days or so there will be brand new reasons to worry in the long range. Lol Bob, Love your input. I'm just curious. I was born in 70 and can remember when it wasn't that rare for troughs to engulf the entire country. 77-78 comes to mind. What can cause the entire country or close to the entire country to be colder than normal? Could this be setting up in this current modeled pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1 minute ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Like a hurricane in the gulf... No joke... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1 minute ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Like a hurricane in the gulf... Yes the ICON has a bomb of a wave and sfc low (990mb) in the gulf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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