NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Say it Gl_r_ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Euro at 180 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 That's close, but ugly for NC piedmont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, WidreMann said: Yeah, just looking at the 168 frame, it would send it over the coastal plain and only the mountains would likely see any wintry precip. Agree.. 850 freezing line is west of I-77. Based on the trough axis, it wouldn't be moving much further east unless is bombs out fast enough to pull the 850 low toward the sfc low center quickly enough. Even then it's still a W NC/SC/GA event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Not bad. Ill take it 7 days out. Need a nudge more qpf and temps could use a nice tweak. Plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 12z Euro Loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 We don't need it to bomb out quite so soon nor as intensely over a short period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 I'm not too enthusiastic, seeing as we really have to thread the needle to make this work. I suppose that's usually the case in the South though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, olafminesaw said: I'm not too enthusiastic, seeing as we really have to thread the needle to make this work. I suppose that's usually the case in the South though. We eitheir take a shot threading the needle or dont get to play on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 8 minutes ago, griteater said: 12z Euro Loop Ain't no cold air being driven in on this one. HP is absent. THis is a manufactured cold air storm. Would like to see more separation of the s/w to get a decent confluence zone built in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Early maps clobber central NC. 6 around Wake with higher amounts to the NE. Low bombs out and pulls 850s with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Could be a fun event to track...east of the mtns we need the Friday arctic boundary to do its job to usher in the cold and push the baroclinic boundary down into the northern gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Looks like maybe Oxford is the winner this run with 16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 9 minutes ago, Wow said: Agree.. 850 freezing line is west of I-77. Based on the trough axis, it wouldn't be moving much further east unless is bombs out fast enough to pull the 850 low toward the sfc low center quickly enough. Even then it's still a W NC/SC/GA event. Well it would be if it hadn’t somehow skipped that entire region with precip Central NC got hammered on the Kuchera maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Central NC got hammered on the Kuchera maps. How about down my way? Do I get anything backside? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Well it would be if it hadn’t somehow skipped that entire region with precip Central NC got hammered on the Kuchera maps. Can you post those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 6 triad. Northern coastal plain, nash,halifax county etc areas lollipop double digits. Itll change 20 times between now and next monday. Awesome runs today. Gonna be long week of haves and have nots on op model runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, NCSNOW said: 6 triad, northern coastal plain, nash,halifax county areas lollipop. Itll change 20 times between now and next monday. Awesome runs today. Gonna be long week of haves and have nots on op model runs. A storm like this may not be modeled correctly right up to go time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: How about down my way? Do I get anything backside? Dusting to an inch looks like. 6 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Can you post those? I don’t think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Can’t understand how a low bombing out in the Gulf somehow left N GA and W NC pretty much completely dry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Lol. I can guarantee you whatever happens, it won't look like that. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, SnowDawg said: Can’t understand how a low bombing out in the Gulf somehow left N GA and W NC pretty much completely dry... I don't think they are dry. I think they fail to get cold air in time for when the low bombs off the east coast. That's why I'm also skeptical of central NC seeing much of anything. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Where’s all this mind numbing, deathly cold everyone was hyping? That would be helpful this weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Can’t understand how a low bombing out in the Gulf somehow left N GA and W NC pretty much completely dry... Not going to get too caught up in precip types & locations until we knock another 100hrs or so off this forecast. 192hrs for that kind of detail I'm never a believer and don't want the bullseye for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 minute ago, WidreMann said: I don't think they are dry. I think they fail to get cold air in time for when the low bombs off the east coast. That's why I'm also skeptical of central NC seeing much of anything. No it’s bone dry. Not a drop of qpf supposedly. It’s colder over here than where it just put down foot plus snows lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 11 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Can’t understand how a low bombing out in the Gulf somehow left N GA and W NC pretty much completely dry... Think you'd do a little better than it shows, but as depicted, it's a bit of a late bloomer where the system can't draw in moisture from its southeast and generate precip until the trough gets to neutral tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Watching the euro ensemble come in, I dont think we're going to see significant agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Euro Ens Mean shows some slight improvement. West coast ridge is a little taller and the wave digs south a little more. More signal for the sfc low off the SE coast. The 51 member mean will move in baby steps - to be expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 24 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Where’s all this mind numbing, deathly cold everyone was hyping? That would be helpful this weekend I think folks were just discussing it in here...not realizing it was going to be misconstrued as hype Yeah, we could use some good cold though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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