WidreMann Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Check out MA forum--PAC jet issues I don't see a Pac Jet on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, Wow said: Yes, for our parts, this is one where we will need some good phasing to pull it negative. This is Jan '96 style with a wave diving south from MT all the way to the GOM. This is gonna be a push all your chips in for us. Go big or go home. Mtns will win off ns by itself and coastal sections can salvage a late phase. In the middle its gotta bomb in the sweet spot or we want have a seat at the table. Im fine and ok with taking our chance like this. Nice when your playing with house money. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Trends improved most definately... Now lets see what the Euro has for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Ukie has a 1011 low in far south Texas at day 6,pretty low heights across the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: Ukie has a 1011 low in far south Texas at day 6,pretty low heights across the southeast. Wave is digging nicely into Texas. It would struggle to round the bend with that look, but I prefer the south/suppressed look at this juncture 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 9 minutes ago, WidreMann said: I don't see a Pac Jet on the GFS. Not a PAC jet per se but issues in the pacific not cooperating to provide best set up scenario for eastern conus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Here's the 12z GEFS Mean which continues to look pretty good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Usually when the MA is concerned, it’s good for us!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Usually when the MA is concerned, it’s good for us!? What I was thinking---when they 'dry out' cold we have increased chances usually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 6z vs 12z GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 aynext 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 11 minutes ago, griteater said: Wave is digging nicely into Texas. It would struggle to round the bend with that look, but I prefer the south/suppressed look at this juncture Agree I'll take that look at day 6 on the Ukie.These heights usually bump north with time and the trajectory of them are more southwest-northeast at day 6 then day 5. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 48 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Also looks like Lookout eye for wed morning mischief, freezing drizzle, light zr has some legs on the models now. Good catch yesterday. I'm watching close..has had it since yesterday and hasnt backed down for ne ga and nw sc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 37 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Not a PAC jet per se but issues in the pacific not cooperating to provide best set up scenario for eastern conus The concern is coming from the ensembles breaking the pattern down starting Feb. A trend that started yesterday on the ensembles and the night before on the ops. The MJO is now forecasted stronger in warm phases and loop around in phase 5 just like before and the Pac goes to s**t again. Most probably won't care if we can reel in next weekend or the possible 30-31st threat. But if we screw those up the other thread may get real busy quickly as the epic pattern doesn't look so epic anymore long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: CMC is onboard! Game on I don't ever remember seeing Mack positively excited. Although I'll admit to being around only about 2 yrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: The concern is coming from the ensembles breaking the pattern down starting Feb. A trend that started yesterday on the ensembles and the night before on the ops. The MJO is now forecasted stronger in warm phases and loop around in phase 5 just like before and the Pac goes to s**t again. Most probably won't care if we can reel in next weekend or the possible 30-31st threat. But if we screw those up the other thread may get real busy quickly as the epic pattern doesn't look so epic anymore long range. The 12z continues the trend at hr 282 and downhill from there. Ridge over the Aleutians and low north of Hawaii. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: The concern is coming from the ensembles breaking the pattern down starting Feb. A trend that started yesterday on the ensembles and the night before on the ops. The MJO is now forecasted stronger in warm phases and loop around in phase 5 just like before and the Pac goes to s**t again. Most probably won't care if we can reel in next weekend or the possible 30-31st threat. But if we screw those up the other thread may get real busy quickly as the epic pattern doesn't look so epic anymore long range. The models have vaccilated over that recently. They actually seem to have moved back to keeping the pattern in place. As for the MJO, it's pretty disappointing. The Euro is more aggressive in moving it eastward, so maybe it'll hit 7/8 by February and then we will have a favorable pattern for the month. GFS always sends it into the COD too early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 12z Fv3 continues good look.A little later phase than 0z. Snows light ENC,then scrapes NE coast and does big cities right. Actually looks identical h5 from 12z epic run, just a hair and i mean a hair latter with phase. Shows the tight rope. But also fits alot of traditional tracks from years past that had good size NC snow storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, WidreMann said: The models have vaccilated over that recently. They actually seem to have moved back to keeping the pattern in place. As for the MJO, it's pretty disappointing. The Euro is more aggressive in moving it eastward, so maybe it'll hit 7/8 by February and then we will have a favorable pattern for the month. GFS always sends it into the COD too early. We'll see how it all pans out I guess. For now I'll just focus on the potential of next weekend and hope for the best afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, WidreMann said: The models have vaccilated over that recently. They actually seem to have moved back to keeping the pattern in place. As for the MJO, it's pretty disappointing. The Euro is more aggressive in moving it eastward, so maybe it'll hit 7/8 by February and then we will have a favorable pattern for the month. GFS always sends it into the COD too early. I read webber say where this mjo through warm phase want have really any effect on our pattern, unlike the last fiasco we just went through and it camped out for 2 weeks. Says they all are different in their effect. Somtimes mjo drives pattern and sometimes its just one of multiple factors that gets skewed, weighted out when amongst all the other teleconnections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Those maps don't look great for central NC. Looks like the event favors more NW NC and mountains again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: I read webber say where this mjo through warm phase want have really any effect on our pattern, unlike the last fiasco we just went through and it camped out for 2 weeks. Says they all are different in their effect. Somtimes mjo drives pattern and sometimes its just one of multiple factors that gets skewed, weighted out when amongst all the other teleconnections. He very well may be right. I'm wondering if the MJO is the reason the modeling is wanting to breakdown the Pac though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 12z Euro Op: hr 96 Ridge is building nice on west coast. See if it can send our energy diving. Also Gefs looks awesome with lp signal clustering se coast next monday. Lets hope eps does same this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 19 minutes ago, WidreMann said: The models have vaccilated over that recently. They actually seem to have moved back to keeping the pattern in place. As for the MJO, it's pretty disappointing. The Euro is more aggressive in moving it eastward, so maybe it'll hit 7/8 by February and then we will have a favorable pattern for the month. GFS always sends it into the COD too early. Yeah pretty much. There’s been quite a bit of run to run flipping. The earlier GFS, for instance had a big time -NAO. This one, not so much. I’m not sure the pattern is going to turn favorable and then break down immediately, especially if we can get the mjo into the better phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Hr 120 pac ridge is a little closer to west coast and ns energy coming into Dakotas as oppossed to Montana state line. See where she goes.gut says if we get it to dig n phase it will miss se coast by a hair like fv3 just did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Gonna need a strong PNA ridge to build to force that wave to dig that far south. This isn't like a weak STJ wave rolling through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Wow the Euro is going for it at 168. Bombing out in the NE gulf 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Yeah Euro is in the ICON/FV3/UKMet camp digging the wave nicely. Closes off the wave in the gulf south of Pensacola at 174. Warm in E NC though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, griteater said: Yeah Euro is in the ICON/FV3/UKMet camp digging the wave nicely. Closes off the wave in the gulf south of Pensacola at 174. Warm in E NC though Yeah, just looking at the 168 frame, it would send it over the coastal plain and only the mountains would likely see any wintry precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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